Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Gracile]

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.

Democrats are practically always "too far to the left," while Republicans can keep going further right, and these voters barely bat an eye. Call me skeptical.

I don't agree with the OP's point about Democrats being "too far left", but I think the Republicans are slight favorites here just by the district's nature. NC-09 still leans more conservative, and I feel like in a low-turnout special it will be hard for McCready to find the extra 1% or so to give him the win.

[Gracile]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1153361745739751426

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change for NC-09:

Tossup -> Lean R

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1156896205873516544

[Gracile]

Wasn't there a Red Horse poll planned as well ?

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1167406988353003520

In a reply to this tweet, they said they expect it to be released on Tuesday thought it could be pushed back.

[Gracile]

The early vote in NC skews fairly Democratic, so it entirely possible that Bishop may rebound by election day.

[Gracile]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

Not good for the GOP. Curious to see their NC-09 results...

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1169323806437117958

[Gracile]

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-ratings-changes/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its ratings for the NC-03 and NC-09 special elections in the final week:

NC-03: Safe R -> Likely R
NC-09: Lean R -> Tossup

[Gracile]

Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Pembroke (home of many members of the Lumbee tribe, a key swing voting bloc):

https://twitter.com/RedTRaccoon/status/1171492402567081985

[Gracile]

I'm just happy this race is almost over.

[Gracile]

Mecklenburg's early vote is going to be crucial for McCready.

[Gracile]

McCready is leading 60-39 in Mecklenburg's EV, per the NC SBE.

[Gracile]

That NYT Union result looks like a mistake.

Edit: It appears the numbers they input for Union is the total vote for the district so far.

[Gracile]

New NCSBE Totals with some ED vote:

Dan McCready 48,571 (53.67%)
Dan Bishop 41,466 (45.82%)
Jeff Scott   302   
Allen Smith 167   

[Gracile]

McCready now leads 53.6-45.9 - slowly dropping as anticipated.

[Gracile]

Bishop now within 5k:

Dan McCready   51,548 (52.05%)
Dan Bishop   46,944 (47.41%)
Jeff Scott   344   
Allen Smith   191   

[Gracile]

More than half of Union is in, and it is helping Bishop at the current margins.

[Gracile]

WTF is up with the disparity between NYT and CNN results?

They use different sources for result reporting.

[Gracile]

All of Anson's precincts came in and McCready won it 56.82-42.72 (in November it was 57.6-41.0).

[Gracile]

Richmond is all in and Bishop won 52.08 - 47.25 (McCready WON this county in 2018).

[Gracile]

Mecklenburg is more than half in, and McCready's lead has been cut down to 16%. Bishop still leads overall. Bishop has the advantage.

[Gracile]

Mecklenburg is now 38/50 in, McCready is leading it by 7.5k (13.4%), Bishop is winning the district by about 3.3k.

[Gracile]

Robeson is in and McCready only won it 50.3-49.2 - way down from last year.

[Gracile]

Bishop's state senate district could potentially become a pickup opportunity for Democrats (ignoring redistricting) if it's any consolation.

[Gracile]

I have a question: I keep hearing that Trump won this district by 12 in 2016, but weren't the district's boundaries in 2016 different until they had to be redrawn, or are they estimating based on the new boundaries what his margin was? A friend of mine asked me this and we still don't know the answer. (Apologize if this question has already been asked.)

Trump won the current NC-09 (the lines were established in the 2016 election) 54.4-42.8 or 11.6%.