Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Skye]

Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes.

If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green

Wasn't Sinema a former Green Party member? That would be ironic.

[Pandaguineapig]

At this point I'm calling it a 53/47 senate. The numbers aren't there for Scott to lose and Hyde-Smith isn't losing barring revelations of her being a female Roy Moore. The only race that is still in question is Arizona and I don't think Mcsally survives the late deluge of votes

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes.

If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green

Wasn't Sinema a former Green Party member? That would be ironic.

I think this is part of why Angela Green's vote count is that high. There's supposedly a lot of resentment between Greens and Sinema.

[Nyvin]

At this point I'm calling it a 53/47 senate. The numbers aren't there for Scott to lose and Hyde-Smith isn't losing barring revelations of her being a female Roy Moore. The only race that is still in question is Arizona and I don't think Mcsally survives the late deluge of votes

Ironically, exactly the inverse of what it was after the 2010 elections.

[Brittain33]

Rosendale is not a carpetbagger.

Oh, my bad.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Funny thing:

In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats.

Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ...

Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate.

What happens if you replace california with the gubernatorial votes and add maybe 5 percent to the dems?

That’s a really good point. CA having two Dems for senate makes it hard to do popular vote comparisons like that.

[MT Treasurer]

Holding out hope for 54R/46D, but I’m sure Dems will win one or both races because of course they will.

[Inmate Trump]

If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate.  It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm.

[lfromnj]

If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate.  It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm.

Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets.

[7,052,770]

Florida down to just 53% chance of Scott on NYT. A true tossup.

[Badger]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

I know Katie Hill.

...and I don't mean, I met her once.

I mean, I know Katie Hill.

I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES!

Um, are you implying you've dated her or something?

[gf20202]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

[Badger]

A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself:

If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it?  Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November.  But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period.  Agreed?

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Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome.

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Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no?

Fair enough.  It's a bet.

Ben, you can change your avatar now.

That know nothing coward promised to leave Atlas if Roy Moore Was Defeated. He welched on that that too. Don't expect him to man up here.

[Mr.Phips]

If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate.  It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm.

Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets.

Yeah, after 2014, there really were very few seats Democratic held House seats left that Republicans had a realistic chance of taking.

[Andy Hine]

Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.

[Holmes]

Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.

I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting.

[Ben.]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally.

Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal.

I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem?

Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins.

[Andy Hine]

Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.

I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting.

strange

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Florida down to just 53% chance of Scott on NYT. A true tossup.

Why?

[YE]

Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races.

[pppolitics]

TUCSON, Ariz. - There still is no clear winner in the close race between Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema.

The race remains too close to call between the two Congresswomen from Arizona, and Garrett Archer -- and analyst from the Arizona Secretary of State's office -- says hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted.

Archer says most of the ballots that remain to be counted are early ballots that were sent late, and provisional ballots that need to be verified.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060213643361415168

With nearly all of the ballots cast on Election Day counted, McSally leads Sinema by about 16,000 votes -- or about 0.9 percent .

In Pima County, election officials say nearly 80,000 ballots still need to be counted. Sinema carried a strong lead in Pima County, with 55.2 percent of the vote counted so far, while McSally only received 42.8 percent. County election officials say they won't resume counting those ballots until Thursday.

https://twitter.com/pimaarizona/status/1060249622541680640

The vast majority of ballots to be counted, however, are in Maricopa County, election officials say. Sinema has a narrow lead there with 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to McSally's 48.6 percent.

https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/arizona-senate-results-still-counting

[ajc0918]

Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races.

Yes but it's slim. Broward, Duval, and Palm Beach all have some mail ballots still to count. And Broward also has some EV votes to count. It'll be close but she might be able to pull it off. There are about 34k votes in Broward to count (17k which are VBMs).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally.

Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal.

I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem?

Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins.

If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k.  They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top.

[Thatkat04]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally.

Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal.

I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem?

Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins.

If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k.  They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top.

I mean, its entirely possible they will be.

[Doimper]

Regardless of whether she actually pulls it out in the end or not, I think it's fair to say that Sinema's campaign was an embarrassing failure.

Muh Blue Dog. Muh vote against Chuck Schumer.