Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Pericles]

Politico calls it for Evers!

Yes! Oh god, yes!

[Dr. Arch]

GOVERNOR EVERS! 

[Florida Man for Crime]

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes.

But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc.

People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats.

It is a problem, to be sure, but Dems also made a lot of gains to help offset this sort of thing. In the case of FL, the outcome is hardly ideal (FL is definitely the #1 low point for Dems), but nonetheless the felon anti-disenfranchisement amendment passed.

There is still the redistricting constitutional amendments in FL as well, though of course they probably won't be enforced as well as we would like, they probably also won't be at least entirely ignored either. And in various other states such as MI, WI, and probably VA (NY? NC?), redistricting will also be better.

I do agree with you very much that these things are problems, but they are less of a problem now than they were yesterday.

[henster]

Ortiz Jones apparently coming back from the dead in TX-23 up 300 votes now.

[Yank2133]

Cruz will win might have been right about the Beto effect. I think Will Hurd just lost.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And Kobach losing, biggest upset imo governor wise!

[Storr]

Ortiz Jones apparently coming back from the dead in TX-23 up 300 votes now.

She can thank Beto for that.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Will Hurd lost

[Dr. Arch]

Will Hurd lost

Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol.

[Horus]

McAdams still up 2.5 with 100% of precincts in, per CNN

[henster]

She already conceded he gave a victory speech lol!

[Roronoa D. Law]

[Badger]

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes.

But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc.

People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats.

It is a problem, to be sure, but Dems also made a lot of gains to help offset this sort of thing. In the case of FL, the outcome is hardly ideal (FL is definitely the #1 low point for Dems), but nonetheless the felon anti-disenfranchisement amendment passed.

There is still the redistricting constitutional amendments in FL as well, though of course they probably won't be enforced as well as we would like, they probably also won't be at least entirely ignored either. And in various other states such as MI, WI, and probably VA (NY? NC?), redistricting will also be better.

I do agree with you very much that these things are problems, but they are less of a problem now than they were yesterday.

True dat. I'm just particularly sore at the lack of gerrymandering control that's going to exist in Ohio and Florida in a couple years.

[Gass3268]

Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed.

[Hammy]

Will Hurd lost

Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol.

CNN's total has Hurd up by 7000, or is that too out of date? (and if so is there something more up to date to get the totals?)

[NOVA Green]

Cruz will win might have been right about the Beto effect. I think Will Hurd just lost.

I was actually just checking out TX-23 numbers, and + 689 R raw margin, starts to get into Provisional Ballots because of voter suppression....

Think I posted a few posts about TX-23, focused mainly on Bexar County precincts.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NYT just uncalled TX-23.  WaPo still has it called for Hurd.

[IceSpear]

Haha, Hurd and Curbelo going down is satisfying at least. All the pundits acted like those were Safe R seats because of #candidatequality

And Shalala would lose because #CandidateQualityMatters.

[henster]

Is Katie Porter too far behind?

[lfromnj]

I really want to See Beto's congressional district map.
He definitely won all 14 Clinton districts. I think he might have won a few more districts. We have to remember it may have been only a 6.5 point swing but a lot of districts had basically no swing from 2016 especially in the  panhandle .  Anyone have an idea what districts he won?
Texas 31st is probably one of them?
the 2nd?

[Badger]

So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Katie Porter too far behind?

No, but I think she and Cicernos are more likely than not to lose. Feeling good about the other four CA Dems, though.

[Cape Verde]

Will Hurd's loss means that the NYT Poll was a crap.

[Tintrlvr]

Will Hurd lost

Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol.

CNN's total has Hurd up by 7000, or is that too out of date? (and if so is there something more up to date to get the totals?)

Not sure what's going on there. NYT says 100% reporting, ~300-vote margin for Ortiz-Jones. CNN has slightly more votes total, says 100% reporting, ~700-vote margin for Hurd. It's possible there was a tabulation error that NYT has fixed and the others have not, but I'm not sure. NYT's numbers matched CNN's until just recently when they uncalled the race.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.