Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone know if Charlie Baker won Boston? I just looked and saw he won Suffolk County 51-49 but I imagine he would have won Chelsea and Revere.

[Florida Man for Crime]

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes.

[Badger]

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Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats.

Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do.

They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well.

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Arizona is very slow at counting, you can't really say how close it is yet. McSally was a good candiate - Sinema was not fortunate to be running against Arpaio or Ward. It would have been nice for Sinema to be clearly winning, but for AZ, a state which has voted R for basically everything for basically forever, and where a significant part of the Dem base includes low turnout demographics such as Youngs and Hispanics, this is a great result especially in a midterm year, and suggests Dems can do well in AZ in the future (including competing there in 2020).

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

[RI]

If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins.

[Hammy]

Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off.

Texas is certainly one of the brightest spots of tonight, given the two flips and how close other districts were, not to mention how close O'Rourke came.

[Tintrlvr]

Can McBath ask for a recount?

I'm sure there will be a recount with the margin being just 57 votes and 100% reporting. But they'll count military absentees and provisionals first - I think those will on net favor McBath, maybe enough for her to lead before the recount.

[MasterJedi]

Milwaukee votes came in, as of now above the margin to allow a recount by law. Evers should stay able that and win.

[Storr]

Scott Walker losing is the scalp of the night for sure

No! KKKobach for sure. Not surewhy that race isn't getting much attention

It was very pleasing how early it was called for Kelly.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight.  Just kind of so-so?

You should be extremely disappointed. The Republican legislative agenda is dead

But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe.

You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen.

Roberts won't leave under Trump

I meant if he died.

He seems healthy. Wtf

[Calthrina950]

Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off.

You are right. While I think John Cornyn is favored in 2020, especially with it being a presidential year, I also believe that he will face a much more competitive race than he did in 2014. He definitely won't be getting over 60% of the vote this time. And the suburban trend in Texas, as well as the trends concerning minority and young voters, should send alarm signals to the Republicans there. But in a way, I am disappointed by the results of this midterm, given that it has only confirmed the intensification of polarization.

[Florida Man for Crime]

LOL @ tossup Nevada and tossup New Jersey

[Panda Express]

Scott Walker losing is the scalp of the night for sure

No! KKKobach for sure. Not surewhy that race isn't getting much attention

Scott Walker has been a villain for us since 2010 including besting us 3 times previously.

[Old Man Willow]

Why have NV and WI not been called?

[Roronoa D. Law]

When you add Governor, Congressional, and Senatorial results in the Democrats won all of the 100 most populous county in the country except Collin, Denton, and Lee County.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ooga booga, bye bye Heller and Laxalt!!!!!!!!!!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Missoula is still only 1/3 reporting.  Seems like Tester should pick up at least 10k votes just out of there.

[Badger]

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes.

But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc.

People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats.

[Gass3268]

If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins.

New York Times gives Tester an 83% chance of winning.

[Hammy]

Am I seeing this right? Did the Dems actually sweep mainland New England in the House?

[Cape Verde]

Interesting how Kevin De Leon is sweeping Republican counties

[Badger]

I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight.  Just kind of so-so?

You should be extremely disappointed. The Republican legislative agenda is dead

But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe.

You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen.

Roberts won't leave under Trump

I meant if he died.

He seems healthy. Wtf

I mean, he himself made that very point to Republican rallies within the last couple weeks. Sure, I'm guessing a lot of it was just too Jen up the vote, but he does have a point.

Besides, compared to other well-preserved fossils like Mitt Romney, Etc, Grassley looks every day of his 85 years.

[Roronoa D. Law]

On the bright side outside judges, a GOP Senate isn't really that bad because Republican don't have any ideas. And the one they do have are unpopular.

[IceSpear]

Collin Peterson is gone in 2020, assuming he even runs again.

[Ben.]

Arizona is making me nervous, but Sinema has more favorable turf out.

Yep, all that is left is 45% out in Apache, 67% out in Pinal (56% for Trump in 2016), and 87% out in Maricopa (which is a lot of votes, by far the largest county in the state).

Looking at the 2016 Results, there is the following % of the vote outstanding (2016 result in brackets):

Apache: 72.8%% (Clinton +32.7%)
Greenlee: 12.5% (Trump +24.6%)
Maricopa: 72.27% (Trump +2.9%)
Pima: 59.04% (Clinton +13.8%)
Pinal: 47.06% (Trump +19.5%)
Yavapai: 2.22% (Trump 31.8%)

Critically, Marciopa and Pima are way larger than any other the other counties. Dems should hope that Apache reverts back to the Clinton margin as well.

[Storr]

CNN projects Jacky!!