Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[YE]

At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.

Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes...

Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin...

The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate.

And that is a massive problem.

But it didnt use to be when Dems had 2 senators from ND, a senate leader from SD and could win in races basically everywhere.

Exactly.

[Storr]

[lfromnj]

Manchin appears to be the sole survivor of the Great Blue Dog Death of 2018

Yeah tester still has a chance but it isn't great with Missouri and Indiana.

Then again Tester is more a BDINO.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is it too early to say I told you so re: Gillum?

Yeah, that would be a silly take. FL is just a lean R state, particularly in a midterm. Too many olds. Dems need Presidential turnout to win it, and even then it is a tough thing.

[J. J.]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

[Nyvin]

What's really awful is that through all this the NCGOP's house gerrymander holds.

[Crumpets]

WA-3 looking very close right now.

[Tintrlvr]

De Leon is only 3 points behind Feinstein in the early California returns.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I'm surprising that Craig hasn't pulled away yet... I thought that Lewis would be one of the first to go.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

[Crumpets]

Chris Collins at just 41.6%.

[NOVA Green]

Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now.

-Popular incumbent

-Montana

We have plenty of DEMs from Rural Parts of our States that represent a winning template in case anyone is interested....

[7,052,770]

FL down to just 52% chance Republican according to NYT

Nelson #backfromthedead

[pppolitics]

What's going on in Arizona?

It's like they reported half the votes then went home.

[J. J.]

Tester is up by 9 with 28% in.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

But ONLY the base is behind him.

He’s going to have a much harder time taking down the blue wall in 2020

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Fox News called Hawley.

GOP dominating the Senate.

     All three of the Midwestern Tossup Trifecta (IN/ND/MO) have fallen. I was optimistic, but I thought Braun would fall short.

ND is not Midwestern (not in a meaningful sense of the term). It is Great Plains. It is very different from e.g. Ohio and Michigan. It is just a huge farm (also with some oil wells dug into the ground), and that is all.

[Ben.]

What's going on in Arizona?

It's like they reported half the votes then went home.

Narrow McSally lead, but no idea where the rest of the votes are coming from.

[Ye We Can]

CN NJumped the gun of IL 13, Davis is gonna win

[Crumpets]

De Leon keeping in close - only 2% in so far.

[Nyvin]

NH-1 Called for Pappas by NYT

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't think this is up anywhere yet, but Rossi is going DOWN. He's currently trailing by 15 (!) points. Early returns in WA tends to skew conservative/incumbent.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/CongressionalDistrict8.html

Burbstomping!

[gf20202]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good.

As a dem, the senate losses are just gutting to me. If AZ doesn't go Sinema's way. I never envisioned a 46-54 senate. I was thinking 49-51 or 48-52 at worse. Feels impossible to win it back even if the Dems win the presidential in 2020.

[Crumpets]

WA-3 looking really really good, albeit really really close for Long.

[lfromnj]

Ohio Looks like Likely R for 2020. In a good environment for the dems they can't win an open governor seat and the incumbent senator nearly loses?