Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 203992 times)
Crumpets
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« on: November 06, 2018, 06:00:44 PM »
Donnelly by 2-3.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 06:06:37 PM »
First numbers!

Barr 304
McGrath 207
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 06:29:28 PM »

Umm... No it hasn't. I'm watching CNN.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 06:35:04 PM »
Here's an interesting election I didn't know was happening: The notorious Kim Davis is currently up by 16 votes in Rowan County.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 06:42:41 PM »
Donnelly up in Vermillion - Clinton got under 30% here.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 06:48:41 PM »
NYT still has Barr up, but with fewer votes counted than CNN.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 06:54:11 PM »
If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 06:57:10 PM »
538 has flipped K-06 back to tossup after having it at Likely R for a few minutes.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 07:00:36 PM »
BERNIE WINS

IT FINALLY HAPPENED
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 07:09:28 PM »
Pinellas looking good for Dems so far.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 07:11:13 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:54:11 PM
If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else.

Nate Cohn blatantly plagiarizing me Tongue https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059960896171245568
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 07:19:41 PM »
Woah. Big jump for McGrath.

Quote from: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:18:31 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on November 06, 2018, 07:14:27 PM
Quote from: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 07:12:06 PM
538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

This.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/ The boxes on the right have their current numbers for every race.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 07:23:40 PM »
KY-6 is looking great right now.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 07:24:36 PM »
Spanberger leading in Virginia early in the night! My queen is not dead yet!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 07:34:13 PM »
McCreedy up in initial vote.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:11 PM »
I feel fine watching CNN and reading the NYT, but Nate Silver is freaking me out right now.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2018, 08:45:19 PM »
WTF is the narrative going to be if Democrats lose MO, ND, and IN, but pick up TX?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2018, 08:49:04 PM »
Spanberger takes the lead! 94% in.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2018, 08:51:07 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on November 06, 2018, 08:48:26 PM


A bit of a surreal moment right here - I went to high school with the guy who tweeted this.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2018, 09:10:06 PM »
CNN just called WV for Manchin.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2018, 09:32:28 PM »
Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2018, 09:35:56 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:35:19 PM
Both NBC and Fox call house for Democrats. Isn't that a bit early?

Yes. Wow. I've been bullish on Democrats' chances all night, and that's really early.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2018, 09:57:10 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 09:53:44 PM
VA-7 will be called any moment for Spanberger.  Lead just got bigger (almost 2k now) with just 3% left

Barring a Beto victory, this is the race that will make me happiest tonight if that holds.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2018, 10:06:01 PM »
If ever there was a true realignment during a midterm, this is it. What kind of crazy election has Democrats salivating over Texas and Kansas on an otherwise "meh" night?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2018, 10:09:42 PM »
Nate Cohn saying Dems will win OK-5?!?!?!?!
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