🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In practice it doesn't matter all that much.

[parochial boy]

I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

[soundchaser]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

[crals]

Yes, but it is fairly hard to see R2G happening with a very narrow majority (under ca. 15 Seats). Especially because of the risk during the election for Chancellor (secret), and Linke MdB jumping off when voting on Parliamentary Mandates for foreign military operations.

But the mere option existing would improve the SPD's hand going into negotiations.

[Yeahsayyeah]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

The official procedere: The president makes the first proposal to the Bundestag. Then they have two weeks to vote for anyone to get a majority. Then, their would be one last round, and the president can decide weither he appoints the candidate with the most votes or dissolves the parliament. Their is no deadline for the president, when to trigger the process by making a proposal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In any event, Merkel probably won't be moving out for a few weeks.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278196

[sirius3100]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Neither the basic law, nor any other law say anything about that.

German elections get more and more Americanized: In Berlin-Wilmersdorf there are still tons of voters waiting in lines outside the polling stations after numerous voting ballots got mixed up between polling locations.
Ballots that were unwittingly cast wrongly are nevertheless declared null and void. 🤬

I´m wondering if those unregularities might be enough for a repeat election in some precincts.

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

https://twitter.com/anjk/status/1442165212543549441?s=21

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

The president.

Edit: I just saw that Yeahsayyeah posted a more elaborate reply to your question.

[brucejoel99]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Nobody gets "a first shot;" it's basically a free-for-all among the majority parties to reach an agreement before the President proposes a candidate to the Bundestag, which can take a while (see: the 2017 vote being held in Mar. 2018).

[Sestak]

Be honest. Does anyone really see the Greens propping up Armin Laschet to be Chancellor, realistically?

[Oryxslayer]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

Out of 756. Reminder that the total number fluctuates through the overhang rules. The right in this scenario has 380. I never thought R2G was that possible, and even this rosy result is likely to trend downwards through Linke.

[brucejoel99]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

Yes, they're at 376, which is 3 seats short of 379, an absolute majority of 756, their overall projected number.

[soundchaser]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

Out of 756. Reminder that the total number fluctuates through the overhang rules. The right in this scenario has 380. I never thought R2G was that possible, and even this rosy result is likely to trend downwards through Linke.

Gotcha — still not impossible, but incredibly unlikely.

[Logical]

Updated exits
ARD

SPD 24,9
Union 24,7 (19,6+5,1)
Greens 14,8
AFD 11,3
FDP 11,2
LINKE 5

ZDF

SPD 25,8
Union 24,2
Greens 14,7
FDP 11,8
AFD 10,1
LINKE 5

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

[crals]

So more votes for the SPD and more seats for the Union, I guess both would claim victory

[President Johnson]

ZDF has SPD ahead 25.8 to 24.2%.

[KaiserDave]

Union has no mandate to govern

[Astatine]

It annoys me that ZDF apparently forgets the SSW and doesn't account for the direct seats Linke is likely to achieve even if they fail to take the 5 % threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Detailed ZDF exit

[parochial boy]

Someone tell Armin that a "Zukunftskoalition" would be one that isn't led by the octagenarian's party lmao.

Also both estimates having die Linke on exactly 5% is quite funny, hedging their bets there

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

[KaiserDave]

Any sites with map results? I'm a sucker for maps