Canadian Election 2019

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Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...

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To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)

And those defeated for re-nomination, like Brad Trost.

And then there are these kinds of former sitting members...
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/03/25/disappointed-former-ontario-conservative-mp-chisu-leaves-party-will-run-as-a-peoples-party-candidate-in-the-upcoming-election/193688

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And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

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What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

To repeat: post-byelection, it's no longer so clear that Jagmeet's leadership is "inept".  (Though to continue to frame it as such certainly serves the pro-Liberal media narrative.)

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Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.)

Re Egmont, I feel that became federally Conservative more through its being an open seat in a Lib-unfriendly climate (and w/a credible standard-bearer in Gail Shea) than through anything more innate--in fact, it was the only PEI seat to stay Liberal in 1984.

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Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)

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I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

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I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre

Which'd be like when Allen first got in in 2008.  But that election, and the two before it, were still technical 3-ways.  It's only 2011 that saw the *real* Liberal plummet.

And also, if we go by conventional wisdom/wishful think/forced narrative that the Jagmeet Dippers are still goners, there's a chance that having previously served will serve Malcolm Allen no better than it served John Maloney in 2011.  (Note how I qualified that logic.)

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In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 

But in some of these (esp. federally, as per this thread), the trend is quite recent, or qualified by spot circumstances.  Like in Sarnia-Lambton, the NDP only rose as a solid second-place factor over the past decade or so.  In Brantford, it was largely the personal strength of Derek Blackburn that kept the seat federally NDP through the 70s and 80s; but then the provincial Nixon Liberal machine transposed itself federally through Jane Stewart in the Chretien years.  And rust belt populism in Chatham-Kent and Essex actually worked to *Liberal* favour pre-Y2K--not only was Essex the bulwark of the Whelan family, but in 1988 (when the Libs were the strategically favoured alternative to the NDP's Steven Langdon) it saw what might well have been the worst Tory result in the *country* that election.

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The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

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Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.

And I'll also assume that the NDP has a *lot* invested in the riding--and remember,  in BC, the affiliation is not a dirty or marginal word.  At this point, for the NDP to play second fiddle to the Greens is more of an east coast thing, not a west coast thing...

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Right now, I suppose a real question is who will be included in the debates--if the Greens are polling this close to the NDP, the optics would look silly to include Jagmeet Singh yet exclude Elizabeth May...

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What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician

Historically, true.  But when it comes to temperamental "true colours", keep in mind that Suze Morrison was the best ONDP performer among the three victorious downtown-riding contenders.  (True, TC also saw the best *OLP* performance of the three; but, still.)

Either of the three are "tough" for reasons beyond their sitting members: Spadina-Fort York has condoland, University-Rosedale has Rosedale, Toronto Centre has (perhaps) a weaker NDP infrastructure due to lack of elected history...

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I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

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Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Or more to the point than "no name Liberal incumbent": Judy Sgro's getting on in years, and who knows if retirement is in the cards (presumably on behalf of daughter Deanna, who ran provincially last year?)

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I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.

The "investment argument" may be true of Cityplace condos.  But it's definitely not true of Trinity-Bellwoods, the Annex, High Park et al--or if "wealthy upper middle classdom" plays out in their voting habits, it'd be on behalf of the Liberals or the John Tory mayoralty.

Given the special nature of the Cons vs the Libs in Canada, Conservative underperformance among said demo would be more akin (in nature, not in scale) to UKIP or Lepeniste underperformance in London or Paris.

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Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

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Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.

Actually, FWIW, keep in mind that the ONDP won Toronto Centre last year with 54% and a 2:1 margin over the Libs.  It doesn't mean Morneau's absolutely *endangered*; but it also doesn't mean the NDP's incapable of "putting up any fight" (at least generically speaking; but if Jagmeet turns out to be an AudreyAlexa case, then...)

And as far as Burlington goes, *it's* not all that "right-leaning populist", either--in fact, the Tory-strength pattern there is more a continuation of Lakeshore-stockbroker-belt patterns from Oakville and Mississauga-Lakeshore; that is, the kind of "more PC than ReformAlliance" demo that found "Paul Martin Liberalism" to its liking.  And while the OLP did worse there (third place) than in Oakville and M-L last year, so did the Tories in victory--yes, a victory is a victory; but in a PC-majority election, 40.45% was actually quite a *low* share relative to riding history--and two points less than their losing federal figure in 2015.  IOW Burlingtonians weren't *completely* sold on Doug Ford; and it's the kind of riding in which a backlash to Ford could conceivably damage fed Con chances this time.  (Though a reason why Burlington may *appear* more right-populist than it is, is that it's home to the Crossroads/Yes media network--but that doesn't make it a Colorado Springs type of place; there's too much of a "Different Drummer Bookstore" countervailing Laurentian-elite element.)

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JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.

Actually, I can see that base as softer than it looks--thanks to Markham Village and maybe even certain elements of Old Stouffville, Markham-Stouffville has a certain "Red Tory" tendency that might well find Philpott more congenial as an indy than as a Liberal; I wouldn't be surprised if she's capable of assembling a "Bill Casey" kind of voting coalition.  (Even some of the newer subdivisions, like Cornell Village, have more of a "propriety" than most of York Region's ethnoburbia.)

On a tangent, Markham has voted "independent" in the relatively recent past: Markham mayor Tony Roman won in 1984 thanks to a backlash against far-right Tory incumbent John Gamble.

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Good numbers for the NDP in Ontario, LOL at the Green numbers for MB/SK.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens-rise-to-12

Though what I find counterintuitively interesting about those numbers is that the NDP-vs-Green margin actually *increases* (to 24-14, with the former number above CPC) among the 18-29's--which contradicts the conventional wisdom about the former being "yesterday's party", or the latter wildly overperforming among Millennials.

It'd seem from this poll that the increasing "validation" of the Green option reflects not so much a younger-demo boost as a relative flattening-out across all ages--which isn't surprising given how many of the party's present hot-spots seem to be of a retiree or aging-hippie nature, akin to the beards-and-sandals/Celtic-fringe base of the UK Liberals of the 1970s.  (And of course, there's the leadership matter: Singh's inherent appeal to "Metropolitan Millennials", vs May fitting the retiree/aging-hippie niche and too soft-focus for a Corbyn-Sanders sagely-elder command to boot).

Oh, and even if it's actually a technical tie, for the Libs to poll ahead shows how vulnerable the argument that SNC-Lavalin would take them terminally out of play was.

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Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

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In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

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Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.

I've a measured skepticism about such inevitability, in part because (esp. if we're talking about Ontario rather than Quebec) the "xenophobic left" isn't necessary all that "left"--those for whom Jagmeet's race is an issue isn't necessarily the element that'd uniformly default/defect to the Justin Libs.  And a lot of the Charlie Angus base is the sort that might otherwise be in fact Con-leaning, and has been in the past...

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Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

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My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..