Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189096 times)
adma
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« Reply #250 on: March 26, 2019, 05:14:30 PM »

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...
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Adam T
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« Reply #251 on: March 26, 2019, 07:54:02 PM »

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...

It was meant hyperbolicaly since every time a bunch of people leave, the media and the hyper partisans often chant "the wheels are falling off" or some such thing.  The right wing dominated mainstream media is less likely to do that with the Conservatives, however, that was certainly the narrative with the NDP.

To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #252 on: March 26, 2019, 10:04:40 PM »

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

He is my MP lol.
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adma
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« Reply #253 on: March 27, 2019, 07:07:42 AM »

To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)

And those defeated for re-nomination, like Brad Trost.

And then there are these kinds of former sitting members...
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/03/25/disappointed-former-ontario-conservative-mp-chisu-leaves-party-will-run-as-a-peoples-party-candidate-in-the-upcoming-election/193688
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Jeppe
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« Reply #254 on: March 28, 2019, 09:00:28 AM »

Lol, Jagmeet Singh has a higher favourability rating than Trudeau now, according to Angus Reid (39% vs 36%).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #255 on: March 28, 2019, 09:51:23 AM »

Ipsos Poll:

CPC - 40%
LPC - 30%
NDP - 21%

https://globalnews.ca/news/5103763/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-budget/?fbclid=IwAR1Njh2a4HQjGPFsVk4NnN69fkDmKg1X1Z_iO6n-AyaUUafyYSfhT68hTyo
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PSOL
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« Reply #256 on: March 28, 2019, 11:51:38 AM »

Even with The Liberals and NDP cracking over 50%, does FPTP ensure that the Conservatives win even with 35%.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #257 on: March 28, 2019, 01:07:58 PM »

Even with The Liberals and NDP cracking over 50%, does FPTP ensure that the Conservatives win even with 35%.

National level figures are hard say for sure "yes", generally yes. But its the provincial level results that will dictate this; there can be huge differences from Province to province.

The LPC won a large majority with 39% but heavily from Ontario, Quebec, BC and Atlantic.
The CPC can also win a majority with 39%... but in 2008 at 37% the CPC won a minority. At 35% the CPC would likely win a minority. BUT again depending on where the NDP and LPC votes/seats came from.
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Holmes
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« Reply #258 on: March 28, 2019, 01:12:07 PM »

With 40% nationally, Ontario would grant the Tories a majority.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #259 on: March 28, 2019, 04:30:39 PM »

Given the electoral geography right now, I'd guess the Tories can't drop much below 40% before getting into minority territory. Trudeau will likely win a lot of Quebec seats on ~35%, and the Tories will waste tons of votes out West.
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trebor204
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« Reply #260 on: March 29, 2019, 12:47:38 AM »

Angus Reed

Consv: 37%
Lib: 28%
NDP: 17%
Green 8%
BQ: 5%
PPC: 4%



http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.26-federal-release.pdf

Poll consists of a lot of sub regional break downs. (ie Rural Sask)

Conservatives leading outside of Montreal (in a 4-way race)



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lilTommy
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« Reply #261 on: March 29, 2019, 08:06:55 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2019, 08:24:49 AM by lilTommy »

Angus Reed

Consv: 37%
Lib: 28%
NDP: 17%
Green 8%
BQ: 5%
PPC: 4%



http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.26-federal-release.pdf

Poll consists of a lot of sub regional break downs. (ie Rural Sask)

Conservatives leading outside of Montreal (in a 4-way race)





Some interesting sub polling right

NDP leads the city of Vancouver, tight three way race
-NDP - 29%, LPC 27%, CPC 23%

Metro Van the CPC is taking the lead; could be wasted votes south of the Fraser?
- CPC 37%, LPC 28%, NDP 22%

GTA is very tight, LPC will lose seats but still lead with a weak NDP, might not be as many losses as though?
-LPC 39%, CPC 36%

Montreal Split is interesting, I can't see any losses for the LPC, but the NDP is still holding their own.
-LPC 37%, NDP 20%, BQ 19%, CPC 15%

Central;/Edmonton is more competitive then I would have thought?
CPC - 40%, LPC 30%, NDP 19%

Interesting SASK break down, the CPC is polling both 42% in Regina and Saskatoon, but big differences between the LPC and NDP.
In Regina we have the LPC 23%, NDP 16% (Goodale effect?)
In Saskatoon we have NDP 39%, LPC 12%

In Toronto, strong LPC numbers hard to see any real losses, maybe one or two to each the CPC and NCP? NDP would be concentrated in Central, CPC would be in the old suburbs, central North York/Midtown
-LPC 45%, NPD 23%, CPC 21%

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #262 on: March 29, 2019, 10:29:25 AM »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #263 on: March 29, 2019, 05:02:09 PM »

CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #264 on: March 29, 2019, 05:42:16 PM »

CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #265 on: March 31, 2019, 02:47:05 PM »

Lol, Trudeau is screwed.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #266 on: March 31, 2019, 04:06:32 PM »

CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.

Those defending Trudeau (mostly criticizing Raybould) point out that Raybould knew she was recording herself.  However, I don't hear anything from Wernick in the recording that suggested that she was taken aback by her speaking style or thinking to himself "she sounds oddly preachy."  I don't know how often they spoke though.   
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #267 on: April 01, 2019, 07:44:43 AM »

Paywalled Hill Times story reconfirms caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott, both got roasted in their respective regional caucus meetings. Ironic that pro-Centre Grits screamed about not recording meetings while leaking the entire story to Hill Times.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #268 on: April 01, 2019, 12:00:44 PM »

JWR and Philpott could be expelled from caucus as early as tonight.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #269 on: April 01, 2019, 12:36:27 PM »


That seems like it would be an extremely counter-productive decision for the Liberals, especially now that the tape has been released.

Let's toss the whistleblower (who has tons of evidence) out of caucus. Surely this won't harm the Liberal Party brand or our chances of re-election Roll Eyes
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #270 on: April 02, 2019, 01:59:09 PM »



Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #271 on: April 02, 2019, 02:03:32 PM »

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #272 on: April 02, 2019, 04:52:06 PM »

Jwr out.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #273 on: April 02, 2019, 04:56:09 PM »



Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #274 on: April 02, 2019, 05:05:24 PM »



Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.
Personally it seems like JWR was trying to extort to stay in power, seeing the texts that she sent out that where just released. 
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