Canadian Election 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:56:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 91
Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189273 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #500 on: June 21, 2019, 03:07:38 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,148
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #501 on: June 21, 2019, 05:48:14 PM »

You guys are talking about the Fords like they're the Corleones of Toronto
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #502 on: June 21, 2019, 08:07:43 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,148
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #503 on: June 23, 2019, 05:02:57 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #504 on: June 23, 2019, 09:02:58 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?

At this point, nothing related to Ford (familial or otherwise) helps the Tories in Ontario.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #505 on: June 24, 2019, 07:37:33 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2019, 08:34:17 AM by lilTommy »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #506 on: June 24, 2019, 02:42:18 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #507 on: June 24, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #508 on: June 24, 2019, 03:21:27 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #509 on: June 24, 2019, 07:29:08 PM »

The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.
Logged
xelas81
Rookie
**
Posts: 212
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #510 on: June 24, 2019, 09:49:52 PM »

The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.
Logged
trebor204
TREBOR204
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 418


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #511 on: June 24, 2019, 11:19:33 PM »

Polling Data for the Federal Election in Manitoba

MB (2015 Results in Brackets)
Consv.  43% (35%)
Liberal 24% (45%)
NDP 17% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)

Winnipeg
Consv: 35% (29%)
Liberal 29% (53%)
NDP 20% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)


Outside Winnipeg
Consv 56% (48%)
Liberal 15% (33%)
NDP 11% (13%)
Greens 13% (4%)




https://media.winnipegfreepress.com/documents/190621June+2019MBOmniFedPartyStandings.pdf
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #512 on: June 25, 2019, 01:09:31 AM »

The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.

Not quite

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/30/poll-canadians-climate-change/

35% of Conservatives know the AGW theory is real.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #513 on: June 25, 2019, 06:29:36 AM »

Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #514 on: June 25, 2019, 09:27:23 AM »

Polling Data for the Federal Election in Manitoba

MB (2015 Results in Brackets)
Consv.  43% (35%)
Liberal 24% (45%)
NDP 17% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)

Winnipeg
Consv: 35% (29%)
Liberal 29% (53%)
NDP 20% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)


Outside Winnipeg
Consv 56% (48%)
Liberal 15% (33%)
NDP 11% (13%)
Greens 13% (4%)




https://media.winnipegfreepress.com/documents/190621June+2019MBOmniFedPartyStandings.pdf

The numbers in Winnipeg are pretty devastating for the Liberals. By my estimate they would lose Charleswood-St. James and Kildonan-St. Paul to the Tories for sure, likely lose Winnipeg South to the Tories as well and likely lose Winnipeg Centre to the NDP. Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface would be on the bubble. The only Liberal hold would be Winnipeg North – only because the inexplicably popular Kevin Lamoureux is there…

The Tories already hold every seat outside Winnipeg so they can't gain anything - expect for Churchill where they are not competitive because its largely Indigenous
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #515 on: June 25, 2019, 12:33:10 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #516 on: June 25, 2019, 12:49:47 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

Not gonna lie, I quite liked Saron Gebresellassi, plus it just rubs me the wrong way that Taylor was invited to a debate among the candidates prior to the nomination & his team responded by saying he didn't need to attend because he already had it in the bag :/
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #517 on: June 25, 2019, 05:07:45 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #518 on: June 25, 2019, 05:18:00 PM »

Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX

No, this is entirely due to global warming!

Don't want to make too much of one poll, but interesting that the Conservatives have the exact same level of support that they had in the 2015 election.  I think there is no question the Conservatives are unable/don't seem interested in expanding their base. I think this is the downside of their right wing echo chamber - National Post, right wing talk radio, social media - where they seem to think that everybody in Canada has the exact same views that they have.
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #519 on: June 25, 2019, 06:00:42 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #520 on: June 25, 2019, 06:36:29 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #521 on: June 25, 2019, 08:26:54 PM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #522 on: June 25, 2019, 08:28:20 PM »

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #523 on: June 25, 2019, 09:05:42 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #524 on: June 26, 2019, 12:52:08 AM »

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.

Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 91  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 10 queries.