Canadian Election 2019
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lilTommy
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« Reply #375 on: May 01, 2019, 11:06:44 AM »

Tommy, are you confusing Tom Parkin with Steve Paikin of TVO?
... no, but I think I did just mix-up their names Tongue
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lilTommy
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« Reply #376 on: May 01, 2019, 11:16:20 AM »

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 
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DL
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« Reply #377 on: May 01, 2019, 11:47:07 AM »

What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #378 on: May 01, 2019, 12:24:03 PM »

Agree with the assessment of Morneau.  I think of the MPs in the three downtown ridings he has the least of a personal brand.
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adma
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« Reply #379 on: May 01, 2019, 06:20:59 PM »

What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician

Historically, true.  But when it comes to temperamental "true colours", keep in mind that Suze Morrison was the best ONDP performer among the three victorious downtown-riding contenders.  (True, TC also saw the best *OLP* performance of the three; but, still.)

Either of the three are "tough" for reasons beyond their sitting members: Spadina-Fort York has condoland, University-Rosedale has Rosedale, Toronto Centre has (perhaps) a weaker NDP infrastructure due to lack of elected history...
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DL
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« Reply #380 on: May 01, 2019, 11:48:02 PM »

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally
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Smid
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« Reply #381 on: May 02, 2019, 04:31:19 AM »

Agree with the assessment of Morneau.  I think of the MPs in the three downtown ridings he has the least of a personal brand.

Add to this that there is frequently a great deal of voter churn in downtown ridings, making it especially difficult for even a good retail politician to build a personal brand.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #382 on: May 02, 2019, 09:33:51 AM »

While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.
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DL
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« Reply #383 on: May 02, 2019, 10:09:49 AM »

While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.

Suze Morrison has turned out to be a terrific MPP and she worked very hard to win that nomination at a time when the conventional wisdom was that whoever the NDP nominated would be a sacrificial lamb...but it should be noted that she only beat Kevin Beaulieu (the presumed frontrunner) by ONE vote after they re-ran the vote because it was initially a tie! 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #384 on: May 02, 2019, 01:31:45 PM »

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #385 on: May 02, 2019, 04:20:30 PM »

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).
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adma
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« Reply #386 on: May 02, 2019, 05:26:56 PM »

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #387 on: May 02, 2019, 07:18:37 PM »

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That "lifestyle sorting" was quite evident in the last provincial election.  Not only did all 8 inner Toronto ridings go NDP, but the Conservative vote share in the least "progressive" inner TO riding (St. Paul's) was lower than every single outer TO riding.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #388 on: May 03, 2019, 02:18:28 PM »

TC was the weakest of the three downtown ridings for the federal Conservatives in 2015 as well.

In addition to the large low income population and social housing component, there's also a large LGBT community that is very anti-Conservative for obvious reasons.
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beesley
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« Reply #389 on: May 05, 2019, 03:25:05 AM »

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 

All the NDP candidates in PHP are at least credible, which they need to be of course.


If I had to rank the NDP's chances in their area I would go:


1. Davenport
2. Toronto-Danforth
3. Parkdale-High Park
-- (the point where it gets a lot harder)
4. York South-Weston
5. University-Rosedale
6. Beaches-East York (could easily swap 5&6)
-- (the point where it gets near impossible, at least for the moment)
7. Spadina-Fort York
8. Toronto Centre
9. Scarborough SW

Outside of that their next best shot is a long way away.
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DL
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« Reply #390 on: May 05, 2019, 07:10:22 AM »

Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate
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adma
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« Reply #391 on: May 05, 2019, 10:59:03 AM »

Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Or more to the point than "no name Liberal incumbent": Judy Sgro's getting on in years, and who knows if retirement is in the cards (presumably on behalf of daughter Deanna, who ran provincially last year?)

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DL
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« Reply #392 on: May 05, 2019, 12:11:04 PM »

Deanna Sgro is not very formidable. Not only did she lose provincially but she lost municipally too.
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vileplume
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« Reply #393 on: May 05, 2019, 02:33:31 PM »

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That's not what happened with London. The Tory collapse in London is caused by several factors:
1)Property in the wealthiest parts of London have been bought up as investments by the global super rich who can't vote. This has significantly increased the voting power of the poorer areas compared the wealthier areas.
2)Home ownership has collapsed with sky rocketing rents. One of the biggest indicators of whether someone is likely to be a Tory voter or not is if they own their own home (especially if they don't have a mortgage) because such people are more financially secure. In London though a disproportionate amount of people rent and given rents are so high many people actually have very little in the way of disposable income even if they have a good job on paper. Such people also have little to nothing in the way of savings making them very financially insecure and thus not very likely to be a Tory voter.
3)Previously respectable 'middle of the road' suburbs succumbing to urban decline. Going back several decades places like Enfield and Mitcham whilst hardly salubrious were unremarkable, bog-standard suburbia that was open to voting Conservative. However in recent decades many of the middle class/skilled working class residents left and moved to the Home Counties e.g. people from Mitcham moved to Epsom, Enfield to Cheshunt etc. Their former homes were often bought up by landlords and former family homes become rented out by room (as this is more profitable) and the areas went into sharp decline.

I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #394 on: May 05, 2019, 07:42:42 PM »

Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Maria Augimeri?  Tiffany Ford?
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adma
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« Reply #395 on: May 05, 2019, 09:16:11 PM »

I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.

The "investment argument" may be true of Cityplace condos.  But it's definitely not true of Trinity-Bellwoods, the Annex, High Park et al--or if "wealthy upper middle classdom" plays out in their voting habits, it'd be on behalf of the Liberals or the John Tory mayoralty.

Given the special nature of the Cons vs the Libs in Canada, Conservative underperformance among said demo would be more akin (in nature, not in scale) to UKIP or Lepeniste underperformance in London or Paris.
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Poirot
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« Reply #396 on: May 05, 2019, 10:07:56 PM »

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

There is a map with the median household income by federal electora district on 338canada (same guy who does qc125)
http://338canada.com/map-income

Toronto Centre is ranked 120 out of 121 Ontario ridings and 320 on 338 ridings in Canada.
In Toronto the other two lowest are York South Weston ranked 118 on 121 and Humber River Black Creek at 117.

The lowest median income in Ontario is Hamilton Centre, ranked 336 on 338 in Canada.
Windsor West is 119 of 121 in Ontario.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #397 on: May 05, 2019, 10:42:06 PM »

NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%
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DL
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« Reply #398 on: May 06, 2019, 12:03:54 AM »

Latest poll from Campaign Research says it’s Tories 35%, Liberals 31%, ndp 17% and Greens 10%...but with the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and marginally ahead in Ontario i think they would still get the largest number of seats

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TbCOi439siAc2Hxab6MISQf4ePvgeCSu/view
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lilTommy
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« Reply #399 on: May 06, 2019, 06:50:28 AM »

NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%

Interesting one we've already talked about:
Humber River-Black Creek - 10.74% - 37.41% (27.85% in 2011 federal)
- The NDP *can win here, but really depend on the CPC's also doing well. So with a strong candidate (Augimeri or T.Ford) could happen

The campaign research poll, some good notes for the NDP:
Toronto: LPC 36%, NDP 28% CPC 26% - very strong numbers, and most likely concentrated in about 10 riding's.

Trend lines:
Since February - The overall numbers show an increase from 14% -> 17%, LPC and CPC are both stagnant.
Jagmeet Singhs approval numbers - 16% in February, 24% now, Trudeau decrease, Scheer stagnant. Disapproval has decrease for JS from 39% to 29% (lowest disapproval rate of all three)
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