Canadian Election 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:23:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian Election 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 91
Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189168 times)
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #300 on: April 10, 2019, 05:19:32 AM »

Here are some seats I believe the Greens can win on a good night:

Saanich-Gulf Islands (obviously)
Victoria (their top target and a seat which includes Andrew Weaver's district)
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (another Vancouver Island battleground, where former Liberal David Merner is running as a Green)
Nanaimo-Ladysmith (the by-election isn't long after the PEI Election and Paul Manly is running for the Greens)

And if that surge really happens:

Fredericton (David Coon's seat is here and they came third last time)
Guelph (student seat where Mike Schreiner won)
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford (getting the effects of the Victoria area surge, this also contains the area represented by Sonia Furstenau, however it's likely the best seat for the NDP wholly on the island)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country (the best named riding anywhere, the Sunshine Coast area has a Green tinge, but this only goes in a Liberal collapse)
Charlottetown (residual from provincial election)
Malpeque (same as Charlottetown)

I think they will definitely take Victoria and Saanich and are in a good position in the other two (of which Nanaimo is the better shot), but I don't see them taking anywhere else. In Fredericton they could play spoiler and allow the CPC to oust Matt Decourcey, considering the CPC are taking at least three other NB seats.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #301 on: April 10, 2019, 05:56:58 AM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #302 on: April 10, 2019, 06:10:33 AM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #303 on: April 10, 2019, 06:30:20 AM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #304 on: April 10, 2019, 09:23:27 AM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #305 on: April 10, 2019, 10:50:18 AM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

The NDP is likely to nominate a young and well known city Councillor, so while Murray will be a lose I think Laurel Collins is a very strong and much more well known candidate then the Greens this time. But this is still a two-way race with the NDP-Greens. The NDP has also nominated a grand chief to run in Nanaimo-Ladysmith; while I agree the Greens will due well and improve over 2015, I don't see them yet winning any more ridings on the Island given the NDPs move to the left vs the 2015 election. I see the LPC losing votes to both the Greens and NDP which should shore up the NDPs current MPs
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #306 on: April 10, 2019, 03:59:27 PM »

Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #307 on: April 10, 2019, 05:23:21 PM »

Quote from: beesley link=topic=305434.msg6748632#msg6748632 date=1554906207
Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.)

Re Egmont, I feel that became federally Conservative more through its being an open seat in a Lib-unfriendly climate (and w/a credible standard-bearer in Gail Shea) than through anything more innate--in fact, it was the only PEI seat to stay Liberal in 1984.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #308 on: April 10, 2019, 05:36:18 PM »

Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)
Logged
Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #309 on: April 10, 2019, 07:48:17 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 08:15:08 PM by Smid »


If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

Link?
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #310 on: April 11, 2019, 07:19:24 AM »

Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)

I think the NDP was going to try and target this riding regardless of who the candidate was. With the recent political scene I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa. Having Malcolm Allen run again is very good for the NDP though, so probably a toss-up between the NDP-CONs, I'd now throw in Niagara Falls as well, depending on the candidates but Provincially the NDP has strengthened its hold there. I think much of that is the MPP himself though.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #311 on: April 11, 2019, 09:15:56 AM »

The wheels continue to fall off the Conservative bus.  They are now up to 13 retirements with two former experienced cabinet ministers having announced they won't run again:  former Minister of State for Finance Kevin Sorenson and former Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #312 on: April 11, 2019, 10:19:31 AM »
« Edited: April 11, 2019, 10:25:07 AM by beesley »


If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

Link?

http://www.electionprediction.org/2019_fed/index.php is the current project.

http://www.electionprediction.org/method.html is the guidelines.

I'm Sam on that website.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #313 on: April 11, 2019, 05:18:17 PM »

I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #314 on: April 11, 2019, 08:54:23 PM »

I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,145
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #315 on: April 11, 2019, 09:22:27 PM »

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #316 on: April 11, 2019, 09:47:18 PM »

Has there been any rumblings out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith?  I'm interested in if the whole Green surge would be boosted if Manly pulls off a win, and how likely that is.
Logged
Harlow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 595


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #317 on: April 12, 2019, 12:03:45 AM »

Has there been any rumblings out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith?  I'm interested in if the whole Green surge would be boosted if Manly pulls off a win, and how likely that is.

I think there's also the potential for the PEI provincial election to have rumblings federally, perhaps enough to tip the by-election in their favor.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #318 on: April 12, 2019, 03:51:23 AM »

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)


Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #319 on: April 12, 2019, 06:26:45 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2019, 06:31:43 AM by adma »

I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre

Which'd be like when Allen first got in in 2008.  But that election, and the two before it, were still technical 3-ways.  It's only 2011 that saw the *real* Liberal plummet.

And also, if we go by conventional wisdom/wishful think/forced narrative that the Jagmeet Dippers are still goners, there's a chance that having previously served will serve Malcolm Allen no better than it served John Maloney in 2011.  (Note how I qualified that logic.)
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #320 on: April 12, 2019, 06:55:20 AM »

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)




In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #321 on: April 12, 2019, 03:08:34 PM »

Canadian Green supports kinda resembles that of the Lib Dems in the UK.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #322 on: April 12, 2019, 03:20:06 PM »

In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #323 on: April 12, 2019, 05:45:07 PM »


In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 


But in some of these (esp. federally, as per this thread), the trend is quite recent, or qualified by spot circumstances.  Like in Sarnia-Lambton, the NDP only rose as a solid second-place factor over the past decade or so.  In Brantford, it was largely the personal strength of Derek Blackburn that kept the seat federally NDP through the 70s and 80s; but then the provincial Nixon Liberal machine transposed itself federally through Jane Stewart in the Chretien years.  And rust belt populism in Chatham-Kent and Essex actually worked to *Liberal* favour pre-Y2K--not only was Essex the bulwark of the Whelan family, but in 1988 (when the Libs were the strategically favoured alternative to the NDP's Steven Langdon) it saw what might well have been the worst Tory result in the *country* that election.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #324 on: April 13, 2019, 09:21:19 AM »

In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.

Davenport is in my view the most likely NDP gain anywhere. The swing provincially was huge, and like the former MPP, the current MP is little more than a rank and file Liberal. This is one of the few areas where the NDP are still very palatable. Interesting that neither the Liberals or NDP nominated a Portuguese candidate, although obviously Cash is the best candidate here.

I still expect Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth to go orange. They're probably the next two likeliest gains on the list, unless Jack Harris runs in St. John's East as is rumoured.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 91  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 12 queries.