Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 62

Counties: Racine
Largest City: Caledonia
Democrat: Tom Lehman
Republican: Robert Wittke

Clinton: 41.17%
Trump: 54.02%

Swing: 5.12% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.65%
Republican Average: 55.16%

Dallet: 45.62%
Screnock: 54.38%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 100.00%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district takes the northern parts of the City of Racine that would not fit in the Dempack, add it to the suburbs of North Bay, Wind Point, and Caldonia, and the northern rural parts of Racine County. The only reason I am rating this district Likely Republican, instead of safe, is this is an open district and Tom Lehman is the former State Senator of this district back when it was exclusively Racine County.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 63

Counties: Racine
Largest City: Mount Pleasant
Democrat: Joel Jacobsen
Republican: Robin Vos

Clinton: 37.80%
Trump: 57.26%

Swing: 5.73% Republican

Democratic Average: 38.80%
Republican Average: 57.26%

Dallet: 45.92%
Screnock: 54.08%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.84%
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.16%

Safe Republican

Notes: Robin Vos is the current Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly. His district is the southern tier of Racine County taking in the City of Burlington over to the suburb of Mount Pleasant. He has over $200,000 in total money in the bank and this district is very safe for Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 64

Counties: Kenosha & Racine
Largest City: Kenosha - Northwest
Democrat: Peter Barca (Incumbent)
Republican: Thomas Harland (Constitution)

Clinton: 52.63%
Trump: 42.23%

Swing: 8.39% Republican

Democratic Average: 53.21%
Republican Average: 42.45%

Dallet: 59.44%
Screnock: 40.56%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.67%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the connector district for the the 22nd Senate District Dempack gerrymander. It connects the core of the City of Racine to the core of the City of Kenosha. It is represented by Peter Barca, the former Minority Leader and the person Paul Ryan beat to take over WI-01.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 65

Counties: Kenosha
Largest City: Kenosha - Southeast
Democrat: Tod Ohnstad (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 57.76%
Trump: 36.48%

Swing: 14.01% Republican

Democratic Average: 60.27%
Republican Average: 34.84%

Dallet: 65.47%
Screnock: 34.53%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.84%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the core of the City of Kenosha. Hillary still won this district by other 20, the problem is that Democrats typically win here by 25-30 points. Still a very safe Democratic district.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 66

Counties: Racine
Largest City: Racine
Democrat: Greta Neubauer (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 68.34%
Trump: 26.50%

Swing: 9.62% Republican

Democratic Average: 68.21%
Republican Average: 26.81%

Dallet: 67.08%
Screnock: 32.92%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 81.32%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district takes up the core of the City of Racine. It is the least white district outside of Milwaukee County, even though it is still 66% white. Obama did abnormally well here, while Clinton performed about the same as an average Democrat and Dallet.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 67

Counties: Chippewa & Dunn
Largest City: Chippewa Falls
Democrat: Wren Keturi
Republican: Rob Summerfield (Incumbent)

Clinton: 36.41%
Trump: 58.15%

Swing: 19.05% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.77%
Republican Average: 50.58%

Dallet: 49.36%
Screnock: 50.64%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.69%
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.31%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is most of Chippewa County and Northeast Dunn County. Trump greatly over-performed what a Democrat typically gets here. Dallet got a lot of that back last year, but couldn't win the seat and Obama lost it by 2 points in 2012. I don't the environment being good enough for the Democrat to win here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 68

Counties: Clark, Chippewa, Eau Claire, Jackson & Trempealeau
Largest City: Altoona
Democrat: Wendy Sue Johnson
Republican: Jesse James

Clinton: 40.11%
Trump: 54.44%

Swing: -18.02%

Democratic Average: 46.57%
Republican Average: 48.01%

Dallet: 53.41%
Screnock: 46.59%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 41.83%
2016 Assembly Republican: 58.05%

Toss Up

Notes: Democrats have a lot going in this district. The incumbent Republican is not running, Obama won this district by 3.5% in 2012 and Dallet did even better in 2017. Also, the average is only 1.5 lead for Republicans and while the swing was pretty bad for Hillary, Trump only got to 54%. Also the Democrat raised more money than the Republican in the last reporting period. All those things tell me I should put this at Lean Democrat, but that swing is hard to ignore.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 69

Counties: Clark, Marathon & Wood
Largest City: Marshfield
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Bob Kulp (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.08%
Trump: 60.83%

Swing: 15.25% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.48%
Republican Average: 54.70%

Dallet: 47.88%
Screnock: 52.12%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 99.68%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is the eastern half of Clark County and parts of Marathon and Wood counties. It's pretty Republican, even though Dallet didn't do that bad here. Splitting Marshfield into two parts is annoying, but it helps make the Wisconsin Rapids district a bit more Republican.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 70

Counties: Jackson, Monroe, Portage & Wood
Largest City: Sparta
Democrat: Cari Fay
Republican: Nancy Lynn Vandermeer (Incumbent)

Clinton: 36.82%
Trump: 57.83%

Swing: 19.47% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.86%
Republican Average: 49.91%

Dallet: 49.58%
Screnock: 50.42%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 37.68%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.26%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district was drawn in order to knock out the Democratic incumbent at the time, didn't work in 2012, but it carried out its intended purpose 2014. It was a close call between Likely and Safe, but I went with Likely only because there was a Democrat who did win here back in 2012 and both Obama and Dallet got close.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 71

Counties: Portage
Largest City: Stevens Point
Democrat: Katrina Shakland (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 50.34%
Trump: 43.28%

Swing: 9.46% Republican

Democratic Average: 52.95%
Republican Average: 41.21%

Dallet: 64.61%
Screnock: 35.39%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.90%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: District is essentially the City of Stevens Point and the surrounding area. The surrounding rurals used to be very Democratic (Polish), but has become more swingy since 2012. Clinton's margin here was pretty anemic, but it really wasn't all that off from the 2014 average. Dallet cleaned up here in 2017. My fear is if Walker wins next week, districts like this will be ripped apart like Sheboygan.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 72

Counties: Adams, Portage, Waushara & Wood
Largest City: Wisconsin Rapids
Democrat: David Gorski
Republican: Scott Krug (Incumbent)

Clinton: 36.95%
Trump: 58.55%

Swing: 20.19% Republican

Democratic Average: 45.05%
Republican Average: 49.26%

Dallet: 51.05%
Screnock: 48.95%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 43.45%
2016 Assembly Republican: 56.52%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district is fairly gerrymandered as there is no reason for a district anchored by Wisconsin Rapids to go into Waushara. That is unless you wanted to make it a touch more Republican. As you can see about, Clinton bombed here bad. The other stats look a bit better for Democrats. The 2016 candidate ran about 7 points ahead of Hillary, Dallet won this district by 2 points last year, and even in the awful year of 2014 Democrats got 45%. That being said the money situation isn't great for the Democrat.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 73

Counties: Burnett, Douglas & Washburn
Largest City: Superior
Democrat: Nick Milroy (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 47.53%
Trump: 47.49%

Swing: 23.23% Republican

Democratic Average: 56.68%
Republican Average: 38.89%

Dallet: 58.64%
Screnock: 41.36%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.17%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democat

Notes: There was a real nasty swing towards Donald Trump up in the counties along Lake Superior. Clinton still won this district and those three counties, but only by embarrassing numbers for a Democrat. You can tell though that Republicans didn't expect that to stick as they were not even able to get someone to run here.   

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 74

Counties: Ashland, Bayfied, Douglas, Iron, Price & Vilas
Largest City: Ashland
Democrat: Beth Meyers (Incumbent)
Republican: Jeffrey Fahl

Clinton: 46.22%
Trump: 49.38%

Swing: 20.03% Republican

Democratic Average: 54.38%
Republican Average: 40.72%

Dallet: 57.90%
Screnock: 42.10%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 99.36%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Likely Democrat

Notes: Like AD-73, this district swung pretty hard to Trump. If I was excepting the environment to be better for Republicans, I could see this district being more competative. However, Dallet's performance here was pretty close to what a Democrat gets here in a good environment, so there might have been some snap back.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 75

Counties: Barron, Burnett, Dunn, Polk, St. Criox & Washburn
Largest City: Rice Lake
Democrat: Ali Holzman
Republican: Romaine Robert Quinn (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.53%
Trump: 60.84%

Swing: 22.65% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.05%
Republican Average: 52.01%

Dallet: 46.63%
Screnock: 53.37%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 37.97%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.00%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district primarily Barron County and some surrounding townships. Both Obama and Dallet didn't do horribly here, but they are both the high water mark for Democrats up here since 2008 (other than the two term a Democrat got after the incumbent made a really nasty comment about rape). 

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 76

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison - East Central
Democrat: Chris Taylor (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 82.30%
Trump: 11.34%

Swing: 5.03% Democratic

Democratic Average: 75.78%
Republican Average: 15.33%

Dallet: 94.05%
Screnock: 5.95%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 82.77%
2016 Assembly Republican: 16.93%

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the Isthmus of Madison plus the near East and West sides of the city. This is the most liberal (notice I did not say Democratic) district in the State of Wisconsin. There are some precincts where Stein or Johnson outvoted Trump. I'm actually surprised that a Republican candidate ran here in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 77

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison - West Central
Democrat: Shelia Stubbs (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 83.80%
Trump: 11.48%

Swing: 6.28% Democratic

Democratic Average: 77.90%
Republican Average: 15.36%

Dallet: 91.62%
Screnock: 8.38%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.90%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the main westside of Madison district. More upscale and white collar than the east side of Madison. It also has a large chuck of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, with the other part being in AD-77. I'm not a fan that they split the University and the off campus student housing into two district, I feel like it dilutes the strength of the student body. The reasoning was that so they could influence two different districts, but I imagine it's to prevent a student form being elected.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 78

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison - West
Democrat: Lisa Subeck
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 75.62%
Trump: 19.47%

Swing: 11.10% Democratic

Democratic Average: 68.37%
Republican Average: 26.00%

Dallet: 84.15%
Screnock: 15.85%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 78.90%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the far westside of Madison. For Madison, this is as friendly as it gets for Republicans. Walker got close in a couple precincts here in 2014. This is also were statewide Democrats have the greatest opportunity to gain votes as you can see with the big swing to Clinton, which was then improved upon by Dallet.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 79

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Middleton
Democrat: Dianne Hessebein (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 62.65%
Trump: 32.43%

Swing: 7.62% Democratic

Democratic Average: 57.61%
Republican Average: 37.36%

Dallet: 73.12%
Screnock: 26.88%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 63.84%
2016 Assembly Republican: 36.04%

Safe Democrat

Notes: We now move to the western/northern Madison suburbs and exurbs. This district wraps around the northern banks of Lake Mendota and the City of Madison, taking the suburban communitys of Middleton and Waunakee, along with many of the surrounding townships. Parts of this district can be decent for Republicans (sometimes getting into the 40's in township surrounding Waunakee), but this did not happen for Trump or in the State Supreme Court Race. Another place where statewide Democrats could make numerical gains.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 80

Counties: Dane, Green & Iowa
Largest City: Verona
Democrat: Sandy Pope (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 62.12%
Trump: 32.50%

Swing: 0.76% Democratic

Democratic Average: 60.04%
Republican Average: 34.18%

Dallet: 71.85%
Screnock: 28.15%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.19%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district takes Southwestern Dane County (with the Madison suburbs of Verona and southern Fitchburg) and the most Democratic portions of Green and Iowa counties. This is another location where the margins will be important in the statewide races. If Baldwin/Evers are getting Dallet margins, it will be difficult for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 81

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Iowa & Sauk
Largest City: Baraboo
Democrat: Dave Considne (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 51.23%
Trump: 43.11%

Swing: 15.66% Republican

Democratic Average: 54.93%
Republican Average: 39.11%

Dallet: 60.91%
Screnock: 39.09%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 60.49%
2016 Assembly Republican: 39.46%

Safe Democratic

Notes: This is a gerrymandered district that makes sure that the most Democratic parts of Columbia and Sauk counties are attached to the Western Dane County Senate District (SD-27). Trump did pretty well here, but even so, the Assembly Democrat in 2016 matched Dallet's margin in 2017.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 82

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Franklin
Democrat: Jason Sellnow (Libertarian)
Republican: Ken Skowronski (Incumbent)

Clinton: 43.69%
Trump: 51.79%

Swing: 5.19% Democratic

Democratic Average: 39.03%
Republican Average: 57.41%

Dallet: 46.46%
Screnock: 53.54%
 
2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.83%

Safe Republican

Notes: As a Democrat, I am bummed that no one decided to run here. This district in Southwest Milwaukee County is made up of the majority of the City of Franklin, Greendale, and parts of Greenfield. There was a swing against Trump here and Dallet did even better.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 83

Counties: Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth & Waukesha
Largest City: Muskego
Democrat: Jim Brownlow
Republican: Chuck Wichgers (Incumbent)

Clinton: 29.71%
Trump: 65.91%

Swing: 0.78% Democratic

Democratic Average: 27.85%
Republican Average: 68.25%

Dallet: 34.04%
Screnock: 65.96%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.79%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Republican

Notes: This is one of the few Milwaukee suburban districts that did not have a big swing towards the Democrats. Even the State Supreme Court race wasn't that different.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 84

Counties Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: New Berlin - South
Democrat: Erica Flynn
Republican: Mike Kuglitsch (Incumbent)

Clinton: 41.43%
Trump: 53.68%

Swing: 2.28% Democratic

Democratic Average: 38.72%
Republican Average: 57.86%

Dallet: 43.28%
Screnock: 56.72%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.91%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district takes southwestern Milwaukee and western Greenfield and adds it to a portion of New Berlin in Waukesha County. There was a pretty good swing towards Clinton in 2016 and Dallet kept most of that swing. This won't be a competative race this year, but maybe something to look at in the future.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 85

Counties: Marathon
Largest City: Wausau
Democrat: Alyson Leahy
Republican: Patrick Synder (Incumbent)

Clinton: 44.67%
Trump: 49.90%

Swing: 10.49% Republican

Democratic Average: 46.50%
Republican Average: 47.97%

Dallet: 56.12%
Screnock: 43.88%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 46.52%
2016 Assembly Republican: 53.35%

Toss Up

Notes: This district is the City of Wausau, some of the suburban communities, and many of the Polish townships (read ancestral Democrats) in the eastern part of Marathon County. This was essentially supposed to be the dempack of Marathon County, but the Republicans were able to break that in 2014. Clinton preformed poorly here in 2016, running about 4 points behind the 2014 average and about 10 behind Obama in 2012. Polling suggests that Evers is only down 2 points in the Wausau media market, which would mean he's cleaning up here and Dallet won by a very impressive margin here. Plus, the two candidates running this year are relatively even in terms of money.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 86

Counties: Marathon & Wood
Largest City: Weston
Democrat: Nancy Stencil
Republican: John Spiros (Incumbent)

Clinton: 36.19%
Trump: 59.18%

Swing: 11.93% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.57%
Republican Average: 55.38%

Dallet: 48.54%
Screnock: 51.46%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.43%
2016 Assembly Republican: 58.01%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is Central Marathon County and a sliver of Wood County, including Mosinee, where President Trump held his rally for Vukmir and Walker earlier this week. Democrats used to be competative here back in the prior decade, but have never really gotten close from 2010 on. Dallet's narrow loss here was impressive however.