Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 41

Counties: Adams, Columbia, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, Marquette & Sauk
Largest City: Ripon
Democrat: Frank Buress
Republican: Joan Ballweg

Clinton: 36.02%
Trump: 59.60%

Swing: 21.81% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.90%
Republican Average: 52.90%

Dallet: 46.12%
Screnock: 53.88%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 29.40%
2016 Assembly Republican: 70.55%

Likely Republican

Notes: Couple reasons why I rate the district with the birthplace of the Republican Party (Ripon) only Likely Republican when these are clearly bad numbers for Democrats. One, the western part of this district can and will vote for Democrats (Adams County, Marquette County, Wisconsin Dells). Obama only lost this district by under 2 points in 2012. Second, the Democrat running has raised enough money to at least be competative. However, the Green Lake portion of this district is really Republican and the Democrats would need the western part of the district to come back hard to win.   

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 42

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green Lake & Fond du Lac
Largest City: Lodi
Democrat: Ann Groves Lloyd
Republican: Jon Plummer (Incumbent)

Clinton: 40.26%
Trump: 54.51%

Swing: 17.31% Republican

Democratic Average:
Republican Average:

Dallet: 45.02%
Screnock: 49.52%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 50.10%
2016 Assembly Republican: 49.90%

Lean Republican

Notes: This is quite possibly the most gerrymandered Assembly district in the state. You could have a district that is essentially 100% Columbia County. However, in order to protect the prior incumbent, this district takes his home in Dane County (Dane), removes any potential strong Democratic support (Columbus, Portage), and then adds a bunch of blood red turf in Green Lake and Fond du Lac counties. That being said, Democrats/Liberals can win here. Dallet narrowly won here last year and Obama won here by about 3 points in 2012. While the special election was disappointing here in the summer, this is still a district where maybe a general election environment could be helpful.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 43

Counties: Dane, Jefferson, Rock & Walworth
Largest City: Whitewater
Democrat: Don Vruwink (Incumbent)
Republican: Gabriel Szerlong

Clinton: 50.24%
Trump: 43.54%

Swing: 11.54% Republican

Democratic Average: 53.30%
Republican Average: 41.10%

Dallet: 61.00%
Screnock: 39.00%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 54.56%
2016 Assembly Republican: 45.28%

Safe Democrat

Notes: Rock County stayed Democratic in 2016, but the swing towards the Republicans was pretty strong. However, even with that Clinton still won by 7, the state rep won by 9, and Dallet dominated here in last year's Supreme Court election. In an environment that was favorable to Republicans, this district would be competitive and maybe flip, but we are not going to see that this year.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 44

Counties: Rock
Largest City: Janesville
Democrat: Deb Kolste (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 55.44%
Trump: 38.62%

Swing: 11.22% Republican

Democratic Average: 59.79%
Republican Average: 34.78%

Dallet: 64.95%
Screnock: 35.05%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.51%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is as much of Janesville that can fit into one Assembly District. It's actually one of the few places on this map that I'd argue is not gerrymandered. Trump did pretty well here for a Republican, but Dallet got it all back and more. Plus no Republican decided to run here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 45

Counties: Green & Rock
Largest City: Beloit
Democrat: Mark Spreitzer
Libertarian: Reese Wood

Clinton: 52.83%
Trump: 41.86%

Swing: 18.14% Republican

Democratic Average: 56.75%
Republican Average: 37.39%

Dallet: 62.95%
Screnock: 37.05%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.00%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district combines most of the City of Beloit, Western Rock County, and Eastern Green County. Again, this is another Assembly District that makes up Senate District 15 where Tump got a very good swing in his direct, in fact this one was his best. However it appears that Dallet was able to get most of this back last year, plus the incumbent Democrat is only running against a Libertarian.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 46

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Sun Prairie
Democrat: Gary Hebl (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 61.74%
Trump: 32.95%

Swing: 0.62% Democratic

Democratic Average: 59.85%
Republican Average: 35.01%

Dallet: 70.97%
Screnock: 29.03%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.19%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the direct eastern suburbs and exurbs of Madison. Very safe Democratic across the board and might be getting slowly more Democratic. This is also my home district and I interned for Gary for about a year and a half in undergrad.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 47

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Fitchburg - South
Democrat: Jimmy Anderson (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 71.89%
Trump: 23.13%

Swing: 5.54% Democratic

Democratic Average: 67.41%
Republican Average: 26.46%

Dallet: 79.64%
Screnock: 20.36%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 68.47%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested (He had an opponent in 2016 running as a member of the Bernie Sanders Party)

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is Southeast Madison in addition to the Southeastern suburbs of Monona, McFarland and Northern Fitchburg. Very safe Democratic district.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 48

Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison - Northeast
Democrat: Melissa Sargent (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 76.06%
Trump: 19.26%

Swing: 1.20% Democratic

Democratic Average: 74.29%
Republican Average: 20.04%

Dallet: 84.58%
Screnock: 15.42%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.76%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is exclusively Northeast Madison. As you can imagine it is very Democratic. Will be interesting to see if Baldwin and Evers can match the margins that Dallet got here in the Supreme Court race. If that happens, the Republicans would need to match that somewhere else.

[ill ind]

40,41,42 comprise the 14th State Senate Dist.  Some of my first political experience goes back to walking parades for the Dem candidate back in 1984.  The district had somewhat different borders, but was as pro GOP then as it is now.

[Gass3268]

40,41,42 comprise the 14th State Senate Dist.  Some of my first political experience goes back to walking parades for the Dem candidate back in 1984.  The district had somewhat different borders, but was as pro GOP then as it is now.

A lot of it is the same, but 42 now goes down into Columbia County.

[Wiz in Wis]

Might want to edit your Melissa Sargent post

[Gass3268]

Might want to edit your Melissa Sargent post

Made the edit, thank you!

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 49

Counties: Grant, Iowa, Lafayette & Richland
Largest City: Platteville
Democrat: Mike Mooney
Republican: Travis Tranel (Incumbent)

Clinton: 42.01%
Trump: 51.26%

Swing: 23.34% Republican

Democratic Average: 48.91%
Republican Average: 44.93%

Dallet: 56.91%
Screnock: 43.09%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 42.94%
2016 Assembly Republican: 56.99%

Toss Up

Notes: Like the rest of Southwest Wisconsin, this district swung very hard to Trump. This district is all of Grant County plus Western Richland County. The Democrat and Republican running here raised about the same level of money and Dallet had a very strong recovery here last year.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 50

Counties: Juneau, Monroe, Richland, Sauk & Vernon
Largest City: Reedsburg
Democrat: Arthur Shrader
Republican: Tony Kurts

Clinton: 38.35%
Trump: 57.05%

Swing: 27.97% Republican

Democratic Average: 46.30%
Republican Average: 47.92%

Dallet: 47.86%
Screnock: 52.14%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 42.13%
2016 Assembly Republican: 57.83%

Toss Up

Notes: Another Driftless Area district with a massive swing to Trump. Dallet won here in 2017, but she did not fully return the district to what Obama got in 2012. I have some concerns that Juneau County might not be coming back to Democrats the same way that other counties in this region are. However, this is an open seat and the Democrat has out raised the Republican.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 51

Counties: Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Richland & Sauk
Largest City: Monroe
Democrat: Jeff Wright
Republican: Todd Novak (Incumbent)

Clinton: 48.42%
Trump: 46.59%

Swing: 17.53% Republican

Democratic Average: 52.25%
Republican Average: 41.97%

Dallet: 59.05%
Screnock: 40.95%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 48.62%
2016 Assembly Republican: 51.29%

Lean Democrat (D+1)

Notes: I've been burned by this district every election year since 2012.  I really can't explain how the Republican continues to win here, as most of this district can be considered Madison exurbs. Clinton didn't even lose here in 2016. The Democrat has raised over $20,000 more than the incumbent this cycle and this looks to be a place where the blacklash is going to hit. 4th time's the charm?

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 52

Counties: Fond du Lac
Largest City: Fond du Lac
Democrat: Kevin Booth
Republican: Jeremy Thiesfeldt (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.03%
Trump: 56.66%

Swing: 8.87% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.07%
Republican Average: 55.43%

Dallet: 46.95%
Screnock: 53.05%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 36.24%
2016 Assembly Republican: 63.76%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is the City of Fond du Lac plus the surrounding townships. As you can tell from the results, this is a fairly inelastic Republican district. There is some solid Democratic voters in the City of Fond du Lac itself, but nowhere near enough for it to be competative.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 53

Counties: Dodge, Fond du Lac & Winnebago
Largest City: Waupun
Democrat: Joe Lavrenz
Republican: Michael Schraa (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.18%
Trump: 60.93%

Swing: 14.56% Republican

Democratic Average: 38.53%
Republican Average: 57.06%

Dallet: 47.45%
Screnock: 52.55%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 98.92%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district most of Western Fond Du Lac County with Southern Winnebago County, minus the City of Oshkosh, and the entire City of Waupun. Dallet had a respectable showing here, but as you can see with the other numbers, this is a very Republican seat.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 54

Counties: Winnebago
Largest City: Oshkosh
Democrat: Gordon Hintz (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 49.16%
Trump: 44.12%

Swing: 11.27% Republican

Democratic Average: 49.70%
Republican Average: 43.77%

Dallet: 63.30%
Screnock: 36.70%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 69.46%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested (I think there was a Libertarian or Independent here)

Safe Democrat

Notes: Hintz is the current Minority Leader in the Assembly and he represents a seat that could be competative under the right conditions. The city was historically a fairly Republican city. However, this year is not that year given the environment and that fact no Republican is running against him.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 55

Counties: Outagamie & Winnebago
Largest City: Neenah
Democrat: Dan Schierl
Republican: Mike Rohrkaste (Incumbent)

Clinton: 41.80%
Trump: 51.70%

Swing: 6.14% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.88%
Republican Average: 53.25%

Dallet: 56.00%
Screnock: 44.00%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 61.40%
2016 Assembly Republican: 38.46%

Likely Republican

Notes: This could be a competitive seat as it's a relativity urban/suburban district. However the Democrat here has been very apathetic when it has come to raising money, being out raised by over $60,000 in the last reporting period. Was close to going Lean Republican, but that money difference is just too much.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 56

Counties: Outagamie & Winnebago
Largest City: Appleton - North
Democrat: Diana Lawrence
Republican: Dave Murphy (Incumbent)

Clinton: 37.98%
Trump: 56.68%

Swing: 6.06% Republican

Democratic Average: 37.27%
Republican Average: 57.93%

Dallet: 52.04%
Screnock: 47.96%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.45%
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.52%

Safe Republican

Notes: If the fundraising for the Democrat was better than what it was, I could have been convinced to put this seat on the board. However, other than the Supreme Court race, this district is not normally competative.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 57

Counties: Outagamie & Winnebago
Largest City: Appleton - South
Democrat: Amanda Stuck (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 51.73%
Trump: 41.22%

Swing: 8.60% Republican

Democratic Average: 51.24%
Republican Average: 41.23%

Dallet: 66.44%
Screnock: 33.56%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 98.68%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is the Dem-pack district in the Fox River Valley. You could make an entire district with the City of Appleton and then a competative district of Menasha combined with it's twin city Neenah. As this district is, its an uncontested safe seat.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 58

Counties: Washington
Largest City: West Bend
Democrat: Dennis Degenhardt
Republican: Rick Gundrum (Incumbent)

Clinton: 28.43%
Trump: 66.52%

Swing: 1.57% Republican

Democratic Average: 26.42%
Republican Average: 69.91%

Dallet: 33.64%
Screnock: 66.36%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 98.13%

Safe Republican

Notes: The next set of districts come from the most Republican area in the state, the far reaches of the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs. Funny enough, the Democrat running in last year's special election won the City of West Bend, which is nuts. Still, this district is not competative.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 59

Counties: Calumet, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan & Washington
Largest City: Hartford
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Timothy Rathun (Incumbent)

Clinton: 25.52%
Trump: 69.73%

Swing: 7.72% Republican

Democratic Average: 27.94%
Republican Average: 68.07%

Dallet: 32.11%
Screnock: 67.89%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 99.27%

Safe Republican

Notes: This is the most Republican district in the State and it's almost one of the most odd looking district going from the Milwaukee suburbs all the way up to Lake Winnebago.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 60

Counties: Ozaukee & Washington
Largest City: Port Washington
Democrat: Chris Rahlf
Republican: Robert Brooks (Incumbent)

Clinton: 32.35%
Trump: 62.53%

Swing: 5.22% Democratic

Democratic Average: 27.33%
Republican Average: 69.07%

Dallet: 36.44%
Screnock: 63.56%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 74.87%

Safe Republican

Notes: Another super strong Republican district in the Milwaukee suburbs. The incumbent here, Robert  Brooks, had a pretty big scandal here recently. They were at a bar with other Republican leaders and he drunkenly said that he'd pay for everyones drinks, except for Jessie Rodriguez (AD-21), because she's Hispanic. He claims it was a joke, but it did not go over well. He was forced to step down from leadership and Governor Walker actually called for him to resign. He did not resign, but even with that I don't see this district flipping.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 61

Counties: Kenosha
Largest City: Pleasant Prairie
Democrat: Gian Washington
Republican: Samantha Kerkman (Incumbent)

Clinton: 36.49%
Trump: 58.50%

Swing: 11.84% Republican

Democratic Average: 37.88%
Republican Average: 57.24%

Dallet: 48.75%
Screnock: 51.25%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 33.23%
2016 Assembly Republican: 66.59%

Safe Republican

Notes: Dallet did pretty well here, but this district was designed to be Safe Republican and that's what it will be this year. This district takes all of the rural area and most of the suburban areas of Kenosha County in order to create a Republican Senate district that connects the western parts of Kenosha and Racine County.