Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 20

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee - South
Democrat: Christine Sinicki (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 55.33%
Trump: 39.27%

Swing: 1.92 Republican

Democratic Average: 54.86%
Republican Average: 39.82%

Dallet: 63.30%
Screnock: 36.70%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.02%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: Incorporating most of far Southern Milwaukee, including the airport, plus the blue collar suburbs of Cudahy and St. Francis, I actually thought this district would have been a bit more receptive to Trump. Also interesting to see the Trump backlash here as Dallet outran even Obama 2012 here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 21

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Oak Creek
Democrat: Gabriel Gomez
Republican: Jessie Rodriguez (Incumbent)

Clinton: 44.81%
Trump: 50.06%

Swing: 2.11% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.02%
Republican Average: 52.59%

Dallet: 49.56%
Screnock: 50.44%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 40.53%
2016 Assembly Republican: 59.30%

Likely Republican

Notes: Never been a huge fan of the composition of this district or with it being connected with the two prior. Oak Creek is more similar to Franklin and should be with them, while South Milwaukee is more similar to Cudahy and St. Francis. The Supreme Court race was close here, but it's hard to see anything other than a Republican win here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 22

Counties: Milwaukee, Washington & Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls - Southwest
Democrat: Aaron Matteson
Republican: Janel Brandtjen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 35.41%
Trump: 60.15%

Swing: 5.25% Democraic

Democratic Average: 30.35%
Republican Average: 66.30%

Dallet: 35.01%
Screnock: 64.99%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.82%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is half suburban and half exurban, but 100% Republican. There was a decent swing towards Clinton in the Presidential election, but most of it went away in the Supreme Court race. This won't be competative.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 23

Counties: Milwaukee & Ozaukee
Largest City: Whitefish Bay
Democrat: Liz Sumner
Republican: Jim Ott (Incumbent)

Clinton: 50.43%
Trump: 44.81%

Swing: 19.91% Democratic

Democratic Average: 39.54%
Republican Average: 57.07%

Dallet: 55.78%
Screnock: 44.22%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 95.57%

Toss Up

Notes: This is a clear example of baconmandering gone wrong and I was close to rating this as Lean Democrat. Massive swing in 2016 and the margin got even bigger in the 2017 Supreme Court race. Plus the Democrat raised more than the long time incumbent Republican in the last reporting period. My only hesitation here is the Republican tradition in this district, but this is definitely more likely to flip than the other Milwaukee Metro Toss Up district (AD-14).  

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 24

Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington & Waukesha
Largest City: Germantown
Democrat: Emily Siegrist
Republican: Dan Knodl (Incumbent)

Clinton: 45.71%
Trump: 49.32%

Swing: 9.52%

Democratic Average: 38.88%
Republican Average: 57.71%

Dallet: 47.80%
Screnock: 52.20%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 96.48%

Likely Republican

Notes: There is just too much of the WOW counties, particularly Germantown, and not enough Milwaukee County here to rate this as anything closer. Also the fundraising margin is over $50,000 in favor of the incumbent Republican. I will be interested to see if the margin gets close to the 4-5% that we've seen in recent elections.

[Gass3268]

Going to do more of these tonight as I drown in my own drunken tears after the Brewers lost. There might be some typos, I'll re-review tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 25

Counties: Calumet & Manitowoc
Largest City: Manitowoc
Democrat: Jennifer Estrada
Republican: Paul Tittl (Incumbent)

Clinton: 35.85%
Trump: 58.74%

Swing: 18.05% Republican

Democratic Average: 42.36%
Republican Average: 52.32%

Dallet: 49.79%
Screnock: 50.21%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 64.97%
2016 Assembly Republican: 34.89%

Safe Republican

Notes: After 18 districts, we are finally out of Milwaukee County! Don't worry, we'll be back for 2 more one we get into the 80s. Here we are in a district centered around the City of Manitowoc. If this district was drawn a little different and included Two Rivers instead of going into Calumet, I would probably rate this more competitively, but it is not.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 26

Counties: Sheboygan
Largest City: Sheboygan - South
Democrat: Rebecca Clarke
Republican: Terry Katsma (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.91%
Trump: 55.22%

Swing: 8.60% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.42%
Republican Average: 56.21%

Dallet: 43.79%
Screnock: 56.21%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 40.39%
2016 Assembly Republican: 59.36%

Safe Republican

Notes: These next two districts piss me off. The City of Sheboygan can be almost perfectly placed into one assembly district. It would be a perfect community of interest, obviously. However, 2/3rds of the of the city is placed with the very Dutch southern part of Sheboygan County, which is probably the most conservative part of the state.  

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 27

Counties: Manitowoc & Sheboygan
Largest City: Sheboygan - North
Democrat: Nanette Bulebosh
Republican: Tyler Vorpagel (Incumbent)

Clinton: 40.39%
Trump: 54.00%

Swing: 4.79% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.86%
Republican Average: 55.21%

Dallet: 48.42%
Screnock: 51.58%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.04%
2016 Assembly Republican: 61.66%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district takes the other portion of Sheboygan and adds it to the northern part of the county and parts of Manitowoc county. Dallet didn't do that bad here, but I still don't see a path for this to be competative.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 28

Counties: Burnett, Polk & St. Criox
Largest City: Amery
Democrat: Kim Butler
Republican: Gae Magnafici

Clinton: 32.63%
Trump: 61.90%

Swing: 18.18% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.95%
Republican Average: 55.03%

Dallet: 45.13%
Screnock: 54.87%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 33.88%
2016 Assembly Republican: 60.66%

Safe Republican

Notes: Not only are we finally out of Milwaukee County, but now we are finally out of the eastern part of the state! This district used to be pretty reliable to Democrats, before slipping away in the late 2000's. The fact that its an open seat gave me pause for a second, but Dallet lost here by 9, Democrats lost here by 16 points in the average, and even Schachtner lost here by 5 in her shocking State Senate upset.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 29

Counties: Dunn & St. Criox
Largest City: Menomonie
Democrat: John Rocco Calabrese
Republican: Rob Stafsholt (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.58%
Trump: 54.01%

Swing: 13.55% Republican

Democratic Average: 42.82%
Republican Average: 51.03%

Dallet: 53.25%
Screnock: 46.75%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.83%
2016 Assembly Republican: 61.10%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district was not the easiest to rate. There are some good things for the Democrats here. Dallet won by 6.5 points in last years Supreme Court race, Schachtner won here by 16 points (!!!) in her upset victory for the State Senate, and with the University of Wisconsin-Stout in Menomonie there is always the chance to gain the votes of untapped students. On the other side, that swing to Trump in 2016 was massive and the Democrat running did a really poor job raising money.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 30

Counties: Pierce & St. Criox
Largest City: River Falls
Democrat: Barry Hammarback
Republican: Shannon Zimmerman (Incumbent)

Clinton: 42.51%
Trump: 50.44%

Swing: 1.93% Republican

Democratic Average: 41.73%
Republican Average: 52.64%

Dallet: 55.30%
Screnock: 44.70%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.94%
2016 Assembly Republican: 56.05%

Lean Republican

Notes: I could have easily rated this as a Toss Up. Schachtner won here by 21 (!!!!) points in the SD-10 upset and Dallet did really well, almost winning by 11 points. Also this district trended Democratic in the 2016 Presidential election plus there is another state university here with the University of Wisconsin - River Falls. However, the Democrat running here hasn't fundraised that well and this area has been pretty consistently Republican since it's rapid growth in the last decade it's hard for me to pull the trigger and call it a Toss Up.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 31

Counties: Rock & Walworth
Largest City: Elkhorn
Democrat: Brittany Keys
Republican: Amy Loudenbeck (Incumbent)

Clinton: 40.68%
Trump: 53.70%

Swing: 7.11% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.73%
Republican Average: 54.27%

Dallet: 50.54%
Screnock: 49.46%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.88%
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.02%

Safe Republican

Notes: Along with the districts that make up the 13th Senate district, two of the next three are further attempts to baconmander out the Republican strength in the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs. This time to areas that are more associated with the Madison metro area. This district is a fine example of this as it adds pretty conservative Walworth County with swingy parts of Rock County, including some parts of the very Democratic cities of Beloit and Janesville. Dallet narrowly won here last year, but the swing , average, and money situation can't give the Democrats much confidence.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 32

Counties: Kenosha, Racine & Walworth
Largest City: Delavan
Democrat: Katherine Gaulke
Republican: Tyler August (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.97%
Trump: 59.41%

Swing: 8.49% Republican

Democratic Average: 33.37%
Republican Average: 61.85%

Dallet: 43.51%
Screnock: 56.49%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 37.38%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.47%

Safe Republican

Notes: Pretty typical Milwaukee exurban seat, but with a lot of Illinois transplants. This area of the state has been Republican since the party was founded in the 1850's due to it's Yankee settlement, only going to the Democrats once in 1912 for Woodrow Wilson when Taft and Roosevelt split the Republican vote.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 33

Counties: Jefferson, Walworth & Waukesha
Largest City: Fort Atkinson
Democrat: Brandon White
Republican: Cody Horlacher

Clinton: 35.54%
Trump: 59.27%

Swing: 4.72% Republican

Democratic Average: 35.04%
Republican Average: 60.38%

Dallet: 41.55%
Screnock: 58.45%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 37.34%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.59%

Safe Republican

Notes: Another baconmandered district in Southeast Wisconsin. A district comprised of most of Eastern Jefferson County would be very competitive. What won't be competative is this district, as the Democrat running as decided to not do any fundraising (not sure if this allows him to get public money) and the numbers were are bad for Democrats/Liberals across the board.

[Gass3268]

Added links for each district map. You can find it in the title of each post.

[Wiz in Wis]

Added links for each district map. You can find it in the title of each post.

Thanks, very cool!

[Gass3268]

Added links for each district map. You can find it in the title of each post.

Thanks, very cool!

You're welcome! I hope to have some more predictions later today of the districts that make up SD-12 (NE Northwoods) and SD-13 (Milwaukee-Madison No Man's Land).

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 34

Counties: Florence, Forest, Oneida & Vilas
Largest City: Rhinelander
Democrat: Chris Meier
Republican: Rob Swearingen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 35.28%
Trump: 60.34%

Swing: 15.26% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.14%
Republican Average: 53.18%

Dallet: 48.66%
Screnock: 51.34%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 36.93%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.99%

Safe Republican

Notes: Dallet did surprising well here during last year's Supreme Court race, but that is really an anomaly of the way the results have been on this district that boarders the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Also that swing from 2012 to 2016 was pretty rough for Democrats. 

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 35

Counties: Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Oneida & Shawano
Largest City: Merrill
Democrat: Mark Martello
Republican: Mary Felzkowski (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.68%
Trump: 60.52%

Swing: 20.63%

Democratic Average: 41.50%
Republican Average: 52.42%

Dallet: 47.51%
Screnock: 52.49%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 33.91%
2016 Assembly Republican: 66.02%

Safe Republican

Notes: Another district where Obama didn't do too bad in 2012, but the swing towards Trump here was rough for Democrats. Dallet had a respectable showing last year and Democrats often win Lincoln County when they win statewide, but there is too much conservative areas in this district to make it anything other than safe.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 36

Counties: Forest, Langlade, Marinette, Menominee & Oconto
Largest City: Oconto Falls
Democrat: Tim Comer
Republican: Jeffrey Mursau (Incumbent)

Clinton: 32.07%
Trump: 64.35%

Swing: 26.28% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.70%
Republican Average: 54.29%

Dallet: 44.05%
Screnock: 55.95%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 99.92%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district had the second largest swing towards the Republicans from 2012 to 2016. Crazy thing is Obama might have won this district in 2008, but I can't say that with 100% certainty.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 37

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge & Jefferson
Largest City: Watertown
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: John Jagler (Incumbent)

Clinton: 39.87%
Trump: 54.26%

Swing: 7.43% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.42%
Republican Average: 54.39%

Dallet: 49.47%
Screnock: 50.53%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.10%
2016 Assembly Republican: 61.78%

Safe Republican

Notes: The next three districts again baconmander the Republican strength in the Milwaukee suburbs and exurbs into places where Democrats have strength. This time into the Madison exurbs. This district takes very Democratic ares of DeForest, Windsor and Columbus and combines it with very Republican areas in Dodge county including the entire City of Watertown. This gerrymander almost broke in the Supreme Court race, but no Democrat filled here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 38

Counties: Dane, Jefferson & Waukesha
Largest City: Oconomowoc
Democrat: Melissa Winker
Republican: Barbara Dittrich

Clinton: 38.23%
Trump: 56.78%

Swing: 2.73% Republican

Democratic Average: 36.78%
Republican Average: 58.71%

Dallet: 46.01%
Screnock: 53.99%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 37.20%
2016 Assembly Republican: 62.70%

Likely Republican

Notes: Another pretty ugly baconmandered district. Cambridge, Deerfield, Lake Mills and Marshall are all pretty strong Democratic communities but they are drowned out the Republican strength in Eastern Jefferson County and Oconomowoc in Waukesha County. All the statistics tell me that this should be a Safe Republican seat, but it's an open seat, the Democrat running has raised more money in the last reporting period, and the swing wasn't horrendous in 2016. Weirder things have happened.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 39

Counties: Dodge & Washington
Largest City: Beaver Dam
Democrat: Elisha Barudin
Republican: Mark Born (Incumbent)

Clinton: 32.76%
Trump: 62.11%

Swing: 14.63% Republicans

Democratic Average: 35.71%
Republican Average: 59.83%

Dallet: 43.63%
Screnock: 56.37%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 32.57%
2016 Assembly Republican: 67.42%

Safe Republican

Notes: The largest city in this district, Beaver Dam, will more often than not vote for Democrats as it's generally more orientated towards the Madison area. However, that's pretty much it for Democratic strength. Yikes at that 2016 swing.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 40

Counties: Outagamie, Waupaca & Waushara
Largest City: New London
Democrat: Erin Tracy
Republican: Kevin Petersen

Clinton: 32.61%
Trump: 62.85%

Swing: 21.33% Republican

Democratic Average: 37.81%
Republican Average: 56.92%

Dallet: 47.15%
Screnock: 52.85%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 35.41%
2016 Assembly Republican: 64.55%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is centered around the counties of Waupaca and Waushara. This is one of the most historically Republican areas in the state. Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat to win Waupaca County since 1936 and he didn't do that bad in this district in 2012, only losing by a little over 8 points. As you can see from that swing, things were rough here for Clinton. Dallet didn't do awful here in the Supreme Court race, but there is no chance a Democrat is winning here.