Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Senate District 19

Counties: Outagamie & Winnebago
Largest City: Appleton
Democrat: Lee Snodgrass
Republican: Roger Roth (Incumbent)

Clinton: 43.29%
Trump: 50.47%

Swing: 7.19% Republican

Democratic Average: 42.53%
Republican Average: 51.52%

Dallet: 57.31%
Screnock: 42.69%

2014 Senate Democrat: 42.76%
2014 Senate Republican: 57.17%

Toss Up

Notes: This is one of the other top races for the Wisconsin State Senate. Obama won this district in 2012, by .01%, but Trump was able to get the margin down to what a typical Republican gets here. The Democrat running here did a fairly decent job fundraising against the incumbent and was only down about $70,000 in the last reporting period. Also Dallet cleaned up here last year. Totally one to watch tomorrow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Amazing job here, even though I won't be following these individual races on election day, I'll be sure where to look on who won afterward.

BTW, you weren't kidding about those bacon strips in Milwaukee-Waukesha

[Gass3268]

Senate District 21

Counties: Kenosha & Racine
Largest City: Mount Pleasant
Democrat: Lori Hawkins
Republican: Van Wanggaard (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.54%
Trump: 56.55%

Swing: 7.53% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.20%
Republican Average: 56.49%

Dallet: 46.63%
Screnock: 53.37%

2014 Senate Democrat: 38.39%
2014 Senate Republican: 61.42%

Safe Republican

Notes: This is a gerrymandered district designed to allow for a Republican to represent the rural and suburban ares of Kenosha and Racine counties. Before 2011 there was a senate district centered around Racine County (SD-21) and one around Kenosha County (SD-22). The first was a Toss Up district and the second was a Lean/Likely Democratic district. The Democrat running here actually did a pretty good job fundraising, but I don't see it mattering given how Republican this district is.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 23

Counties: Clark, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, Marathon, Trempealeau & Wood
Largest City: Marshfield
Democrat: Chris Kapsner
Republican: Kathy Bernier

Clinton: 36.91%
Trump: 57.76%

Swing: 17.46% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.33%
Republican Average: 51.04%

Dallet: 50.28%
Screnock: 49.72%

2014 Senate Democrat: 38.84%
2014 Senate Republican: 61.15%

Likely Republican

Notes: Trump had a very strong swing in this district that takes up the area directly to the north of Menomonee, Eau Claire and the Wisconsin Rapids. Democrats on average don't do too bad in this area of the state, only losing between 3-8 points. Plus the incumbent decided to retire rather than run again. Dallet actually won here by a half a point last year. The reason I have this at Likely Republican rather than Lean Republican, is that the Democrat was out-raised by over  $264,000.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 25

Counties: Ashland, Bayfied, Barron, Burnett, Douglas, Dunn, Iron, Price, Polk, St. Criox, Vilas & Washburn
Largest City: Superior
Democrat: Janet Bewley (Incumbent)
Republican: James Bolen

Clinton: 42.91%
Trump: 52.43%

Swing: 22.07%

Democratic Average: 51.57%
Republican Average: 43.66%

Dallet: 55.16%
Screnock: 44.84%

2014 Senate Democrat: 51.16%
2014 Senate Republican: 48.81%

Likely Democrat

Notes: Trump dominated in this very traditional Democratic district. His margin that he got here is actually pretty jarring for a someone who knows the state. There is a serious Republican running here against Senator Bewley and he came almost $60,000 away from matching her in fundraising. The good news is for Democrats is that Dallet pretty much got the regular margin that a Democrat/Liberal gets up here. In another cycle I could see this actually flipping, but not this year.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 27

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Green, Iowa & Sauk
Largest City: Middleton
Democrat: Jon Erpenbach (Incumbent)
Republican: Casey Helbach

Clinton: 59.19%
Trump: 35.52%

Swing: 1.42% Republican

Democratic Average: 57.69%
Republican Average: 36.75%

Dallet: 69.23%
Screnock: 30.77%

2014 Senate Democrat: 97.51%
2014 Senate Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is comprised the Madison suburbs and exurbs that are in the western half of Dane County, plus the beginnings of the Driftless area. This area has moved to the left pretty fast over the past 10-20 years. It used to be a place where you could find some Republicans in Dane County. As you can see this district barley moved in 2016 and Dallet dominated here last here.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 29

Counties: Clark, Marathon, Rusk, Sawyer, Taylor & Wood
Largest City: Wausau
Democrat: Richard Pulcher
Republican: Jerry Petrowski (Incumbent)

Clinton: 37.23%
Trump: 58.00%

Swing: 15.63% Republican

Democratic Average: 41.78%
Republican Average: 52.92%

Dallet: 49.26%
Screnock: 50.74%

2014 Senate Democrat: 34.26%
2014 Senate Republican: 65.73%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district takes the majority of the population in Marathon County and then connects a few rural counties in Northwest Wisconsin. This district used to be pretty Democratic with the Democrat incumbent winning easily. That all changed in 2010 and it's really only gotten worse. Plus, the Democrat this cycle barley raised any money. This will not be competative.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 31

Counties: Buffalo, Chippewa, Eau Claire, Dunn, Jackson, Pepin, Pierce & Trempealeau
Largest City: Eau Clarie
Democrat: Jeff Smith
Republican: Mel Pittman

Clinton: 45.16%
Trump: 48.92%

Swing: 13.99% Republican

Democratic Average: 49.50%
Republican Average: 44.77%

Dallet: 58.31%
Screnock: 41.69%

2014 Senate Democrat: 52.32%
2014 Senate Republican: 47.62%

Likely Democrat

Notes: This is an open district vacated by Kathleen Vinehout who unsuccessfully ran for Governor. Trump had a very strong performance in 2016 doing about 7 points better than Democrats typically run here. However, Dallet had a very strong performance here in 2017, out performing Obama by about 6 points. The Republican challenger did a pretty good job fundraising, only getting out-raised by about $5,000. The reason I went with Likely Democrat rather than Lean Democrat is that I am expecting the City of Eau Claire to come out strong for Democrats and I think it's going to be difficult for Pittman to overcome that even if he's able to perform strongly in other parts of the district.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 33

Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Waukesha
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Chris Kapenga (Incumbent)

Clinton: 34.20%
Trump: 60.51%

Swing: 6.61% Democratic

Democratic Average: 27.77%
Republican Average: 68.63%

Dallet: 36.14%
Screnock: 63.86%

2014 Senate Democrat: 26.07%
2014 Senate Republican: 73.86%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is comprised of the center of Waukesha County. No democratic is running here, however it has to be concerning to Republicans that Dallet was able to match Clinton's stronger than normal margin for a Democrat. This could be crucial when it comes to the statewide races.

[Gass3268]

Here are my Wisconsin State Senate Projections in map form:



I hope everyone enjoyed this and I thank everyone for their kind words. Maybe if I have time tomorrow, I'll make picks with the toss up seats.

[Gass3268]

I am going to score my ratings. I am going to set a range and if I hit the range I get a point. If I am off by one category I get zero points, off by two categories I get -1 points and so on. Zero points for uncontested races I rated safe, but I get to count ties Here is the range I'm going to use:

Toss Up - 0-5 point margin
Lean - 5-10 point margin
Likely - 10-15 point margin
Safe - 15+

AD-01: R+36 +0
AD-02: R+18 +1
AD-03: R+14 +1
AD-04: R+10 +1
AD-05: R+22 +1
AD-06: R+29 +1
AD-07: D+58 +1
AD-08: D+64 +1
AD-09: Uncontested
AD-10: Uncontested
AD-11: Uncontested
AD-12: Uncontested
AD-13: R+3 0
AD-14:R+0 +1
AD-15: R+12 0
AD-16: Uncontested
AD-17: Uncontested
AD-18: Uncontested
AD-19: Uncontested
AD-20: Uncontested
AD-21: R+10 +1
AD-22: R+28 +1
AD-23: R+2 +1
AD-24: R+8 0
AD-25: R+24 +1
AD-26: R+15 +1
AD-27: R+20 +1 
AD-28: R+18 +1
AD-29: R+12 +1
AD-30: R+8 +1
AD-31: R+15 +1
AD-32: R+18 +1
AD-33: R+26 +1
AD-34: R+24 +1
AD-35: R+28 +1
AD-36: R+33 +1
AD-37: Uncontested
AD-38: R+16 0
AD-39: R+26 +1
AD-40: R+28 +1
AD-41: R+26 0
AD-42: R+16 0
AD-43: D+22 +1
AD-44: Uncontested
AD-45: D+60 +1
AD-46: Uncontested
AD-47: Uncontested
AD-48: Uncontested
AD-49: R+18 -1
AD-50: R+12 -1
AD-51: R+2 0
AD-52: R+24 +1
AD-53: R+26 +1
AD-54: Uncontested
AD-55: R+10 +1
AD-56: R+20 +1
AD-57: Uncontested
AD-58: R+42 +1
AD-59: Uncontested
AD-60: R+30 +1
AD-61: R+24 +1
AD-62: R+10 +1
AD-63: R+22 +1
AD-64: D+58 +1
AD-65: Uncontested
AD-66: Uncontested
AD-67: R+24 +1
AD-68: R+16 -2
AD-69: Uncontested
AD-70: R+24 0
AD-71: Uncontested
AD-72: R+14 +1
AD-73: Uncontested
AD-74: D+12 +1
AD-75: R+24 +1
AD-76: Uncontested
AD-77: Uncontested
AD-78: Uncontested
AD-79: Uncontested
AD-80: Uncontested
AD-81: Uncontested
AD-82: Uncontested
AD-83: R+40 +1
AD-84: R+15 +1
AD-85: R+10 0
AD-86: R+23 +1
AD-87: R+34 +1
AD-88: R+6 0
AD-89: R+34 +1
AD-90: Uncontested
AD-91: D+34 +1
AD-92: R+10 0
AD-93: R+16 0
AD-94: D+20 0
AD-95: Uncontested
AD-96: R+4 0
AD-97: Uncontested
AD-98: Uncontested
AD-99: Uncontested

Totals: 43/65 66.15%

[Mr.Phips]

I am going to score my ratings. I am going to set a range and if I hit the range I get a point. If I am off by one category I get zero points, off by two categories I get -1 points and so on. Zero points for uncontested races I rated safe, but I get to count ties Here is the range I'm going to use:

Toss Up - 0-5 point margin
Lean - 5-10 point margin
Likely - 10-15 point margin
Safe - 15+

AD-01: R+36 +0
AD-02: R+18 +1
AD-03: R+14 +1
AD-04: R+10 +1
AD-05: R+22 +1
AD-06: R+29 +1
AD-07: D+58 +1
AD-08: D+64 +1
AD-09: Uncontested
AD-10: Uncontested
AD-11: Uncontested
AD-12: Uncontested
AD-13: R+3 0
AD-14:R+0 +1
AD-15: R+12 0
AD-16: Uncontested
AD-17: Uncontested
AD-18: Uncontested
AD-19: Uncontested
AD-20: Uncontested
AD-21: R+10 +1
AD-22: R+28 +1
AD-23: R+2 +1
AD-24: R+8 0
AD-25: R+24 +1
AD-26: R+15 +1
AD-27: R+20 +1 
AD-28: R+18 +1
AD-29: R+12 +1
AD-30: R+8 +1
AD-31: R+15 +1
AD-32: R+18 +1
AD-33: R+26 +1
AD-34: R+24 +1
AD-35: R+28 +1
AD-36: R+33 +1
AD-37: Uncontested
AD-38: R+16 0
AD-39: R+26 +1
AD-40: R+28 +1
AD-41: R+26 0
AD-42: R+16 0
AD-43: D+22 +1
AD-44: Uncontested
AD-45: D+60 +1
AD-46: Uncontested
AD-47: Uncontested
AD-48: Uncontested
AD-49: R+18 -1
AD-50: R+12 -1
AD-51: R+2 0
AD-52: R+24 +1
AD-53: R+26 +1
AD-54: Uncontested
AD-55: R+10 +1
AD-56: R+20 +1
AD-57: Uncontested
AD-58: R+42 +1
AD-59: Uncontested
AD-60: R+30 +1
AD-61: R+24 +1
AD-62: R+10 +1
AD-63: R+22 +1
AD-64: D+58 +1
AD-65: Uncontested
AD-66: Uncontested
AD-67: R+24 +1
AD-68: R+16 -2
AD-69: Uncontested
AD-70: R+24 0
AD-71: Uncontested
AD-72: R+14 +1
AD-73: Uncontested
AD-74: D+12 +1
AD-75: R+24 +1
AD-76: Uncontested
AD-77: Uncontested
AD-78: Uncontested
AD-79: Uncontested
AD-80: Uncontested
AD-81: Uncontested
AD-82: Uncontested
AD-83: R+40 +1
AD-84: R+15 +1
AD-85: R+10 0
AD-86: R+23 +1
AD-87: R+34 +1
AD-88: R+6 0
AD-89: R+34 +1
AD-90: Uncontested
AD-91: D+34 +1
AD-92: R+10 0
AD-93: R+16 0
AD-94: D+20 0
AD-95: Uncontested
AD-96: R+4 0
AD-97: Uncontested
AD-98: Uncontested
AD-99: Uncontested

Totals: 43/65 66.15%

From what I saw it looked like a no change in the Assembly and Dem loss of one in the Senate.  Is this correct?

[Gass3268]

I am going to score my ratings. I am going to set a range and if I hit the range I get a point. If I am off by one category I get zero points, off by two categories I get -1 points and so on. Zero points for uncontested races I rated safe, but I get to count ties Here is the range I'm going to use:

Toss Up - 0-5 point margin
Lean - 5-10 point margin
Likely - 10-15 point margin
Safe - 15+

AD-01: R+36 +0
AD-02: R+18 +1
AD-03: R+14 +1
AD-04: R+10 +1
AD-05: R+22 +1
AD-06: R+29 +1
AD-07: D+58 +1
AD-08: D+64 +1
AD-09: Uncontested
AD-10: Uncontested
AD-11: Uncontested
AD-12: Uncontested
AD-13: R+3 0
AD-14:R+0 +1
AD-15: R+12 0
AD-16: Uncontested
AD-17: Uncontested
AD-18: Uncontested
AD-19: Uncontested
AD-20: Uncontested
AD-21: R+10 +1
AD-22: R+28 +1
AD-23: R+2 +1
AD-24: R+8 0
AD-25: R+24 +1
AD-26: R+15 +1
AD-27: R+20 +1 
AD-28: R+18 +1
AD-29: R+12 +1
AD-30: R+8 +1
AD-31: R+15 +1
AD-32: R+18 +1
AD-33: R+26 +1
AD-34: R+24 +1
AD-35: R+28 +1
AD-36: R+33 +1
AD-37: Uncontested
AD-38: R+16 0
AD-39: R+26 +1
AD-40: R+28 +1
AD-41: R+26 0
AD-42: R+16 0
AD-43: D+22 +1
AD-44: Uncontested
AD-45: D+60 +1
AD-46: Uncontested
AD-47: Uncontested
AD-48: Uncontested
AD-49: R+18 -1
AD-50: R+12 -1
AD-51: R+2 0
AD-52: R+24 +1
AD-53: R+26 +1
AD-54: Uncontested
AD-55: R+10 +1
AD-56: R+20 +1
AD-57: Uncontested
AD-58: R+42 +1
AD-59: Uncontested
AD-60: R+30 +1
AD-61: R+24 +1
AD-62: R+10 +1
AD-63: R+22 +1
AD-64: D+58 +1
AD-65: Uncontested
AD-66: Uncontested
AD-67: R+24 +1
AD-68: R+16 -2
AD-69: Uncontested
AD-70: R+24 0
AD-71: Uncontested
AD-72: R+14 +1
AD-73: Uncontested
AD-74: D+12 +1
AD-75: R+24 +1
AD-76: Uncontested
AD-77: Uncontested
AD-78: Uncontested
AD-79: Uncontested
AD-80: Uncontested
AD-81: Uncontested
AD-82: Uncontested
AD-83: R+40 +1
AD-84: R+15 +1
AD-85: R+10 0
AD-86: R+23 +1
AD-87: R+34 +1
AD-88: R+6 0
AD-89: R+34 +1
AD-90: Uncontested
AD-91: D+34 +1
AD-92: R+10 0
AD-93: R+16 0
AD-94: D+20 0
AD-95: Uncontested
AD-96: R+4 0
AD-97: Uncontested
AD-98: Uncontested
AD-99: Uncontested

Totals: 43/65 66.15%

From what I saw it looked like a no change in the Assembly and Dem loss of one in the Senate.  Is this correct?

Yup, there is one seat in the Assembly (AD-13) that is essentially a tie. I imagine that will go to a recount.

[Mr.Phips]

I am going to score my ratings. I am going to set a range and if I hit the range I get a point. If I am off by one category I get zero points, off by two categories I get -1 points and so on. Zero points for uncontested races I rated safe, but I get to count ties Here is the range I'm going to use:

Toss Up - 0-5 point margin
Lean - 5-10 point margin
Likely - 10-15 point margin
Safe - 15+

AD-01: R+36 +0
AD-02: R+18 +1
AD-03: R+14 +1
AD-04: R+10 +1
AD-05: R+22 +1
AD-06: R+29 +1
AD-07: D+58 +1
AD-08: D+64 +1
AD-09: Uncontested
AD-10: Uncontested
AD-11: Uncontested
AD-12: Uncontested
AD-13: R+3 0
AD-14:R+0 +1
AD-15: R+12 0
AD-16: Uncontested
AD-17: Uncontested
AD-18: Uncontested
AD-19: Uncontested
AD-20: Uncontested
AD-21: R+10 +1
AD-22: R+28 +1
AD-23: R+2 +1
AD-24: R+8 0
AD-25: R+24 +1
AD-26: R+15 +1
AD-27: R+20 +1 
AD-28: R+18 +1
AD-29: R+12 +1
AD-30: R+8 +1
AD-31: R+15 +1
AD-32: R+18 +1
AD-33: R+26 +1
AD-34: R+24 +1
AD-35: R+28 +1
AD-36: R+33 +1
AD-37: Uncontested
AD-38: R+16 0
AD-39: R+26 +1
AD-40: R+28 +1
AD-41: R+26 0
AD-42: R+16 0
AD-43: D+22 +1
AD-44: Uncontested
AD-45: D+60 +1
AD-46: Uncontested
AD-47: Uncontested
AD-48: Uncontested
AD-49: R+18 -1
AD-50: R+12 -1
AD-51: R+2 0
AD-52: R+24 +1
AD-53: R+26 +1
AD-54: Uncontested
AD-55: R+10 +1
AD-56: R+20 +1
AD-57: Uncontested
AD-58: R+42 +1
AD-59: Uncontested
AD-60: R+30 +1
AD-61: R+24 +1
AD-62: R+10 +1
AD-63: R+22 +1
AD-64: D+58 +1
AD-65: Uncontested
AD-66: Uncontested
AD-67: R+24 +1
AD-68: R+16 -2
AD-69: Uncontested
AD-70: R+24 0
AD-71: Uncontested
AD-72: R+14 +1
AD-73: Uncontested
AD-74: D+12 +1
AD-75: R+24 +1
AD-76: Uncontested
AD-77: Uncontested
AD-78: Uncontested
AD-79: Uncontested
AD-80: Uncontested
AD-81: Uncontested
AD-82: Uncontested
AD-83: R+40 +1
AD-84: R+15 +1
AD-85: R+10 0
AD-86: R+23 +1
AD-87: R+34 +1
AD-88: R+6 0
AD-89: R+34 +1
AD-90: Uncontested
AD-91: D+34 +1
AD-92: R+10 0
AD-93: R+16 0
AD-94: D+20 0
AD-95: Uncontested
AD-96: R+4 0
AD-97: Uncontested
AD-98: Uncontested
AD-99: Uncontested

Totals: 43/65 66.15%

From what I saw it looked like a no change in the Assembly and Dem loss of one in the Senate.  Is this correct?

Yup, there is one seat in the Assembly (AD-13) that is essentially a tie. I imagine that will go to a recount.

Last I saw, the Republican incumbent was up 1K in that district.