Wisconsin Legislature Ratings

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 87

Counties: Clark, Marathon, Rusk, Sawyer & Taylor
Largest City: Medford
Democrat: Elzabeth Riley
Republican: James Edming (Incumbent)

Clinton: 30.93%
Trump: 64.82%

Swing: 24.75% Republican

Democratic Average: 39.53%
Republican Average: 55.14%

Dallet: 42.94%
Screnock: 57.06%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 31.98%
2016 Assembly Republican: 67.97%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is centered around the three northwestern counties of Rusk, Sawyer and Taylor. These are all pretty Republican counties (Democrats can win Rusk and Sawyer in blowouts). There was a very nasty swing against Clinton and even Dallet lost here by almost 15 points.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 88

Counties: Brown
Largest City: Green Bay - East
Democrat: Tom Sieber
Republican: John Macco (Incumbent)

Clinton: 43.75%
Trump: 50.75%

Swing: 1.55% Republican

Democratic Average: 43.79%
Republican Average: 51.34%

Dallet: 57.29%
Screnock: 42.71%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.88%
2016 Assembly Republican: 60.99%

Toss Up

Notes: This district is the eastern most precincts of the City of Green Bay, plus some of the eastern suburbs (Bellevue and eastern De Pere) plus some townships. Looking at the money situation, this looks to be a completive race. Also, Clinton did not do that much worse than Obama and Dallet dominated here by almost 15 points.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 89

Counties: Brown, Marinette & Oconto
Largest City: Suamico
Democrat: Ken Holdof
Republican: John Nygren (Incumbent)

Clinton: 32.41%
Trump: 63.26%

Swing: 23.90%

Democratic Average: 39.53%
Republican Average: 55.69%

Dallet: 47.36%
Screnock: 52.64%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 31.78%
2016 Assembly Republican: 68.20%

Safe Republican

Notes: Another district with a really bad swing away from Clinton. This district goes from far Northwestern corner of the City of Green Bay all the way up to the Michigan border along Green Bay. Dallet didn't do that awful here in 2017, but Nygren has an obscene amount of money here (over $100,000). 

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 90

Counties: Brown
Largest City: Green Bay - Central
Democrat: Staush Gruszynski
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 53.29%
Trump: 39.82%

Swing: 14.71%

Democratic Average: 54.32%
Republican Average: 38.25%

Dallet: 65.83%
Screnock: 34.17%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 97.92%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the core of the City of Green Bay. Hillary performed about as well as Democrat does on average, a dip from the good results Obama got here and down from what Dallet got here. Still, this is structurally a Democratic seat.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 91

Counties: Chippewa & Eau Claire
Largest City: Eau Clarie
Democrat: Jodi Emerson
Republican: Echo Reardon

Clinton: 55.95%
Trump: 36.72%

Swing: 3.72% Republican

Democratic Average: 55.06%
Republican Average: 38.25%

Dallet: 70.04%
Screnock: 29.96%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 60.87%
2016 Assembly Republican: 38.82%

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is the majority of the City of Eau Claire. This is the Democrats safest seat in Northwestern Wisconsin and if anything there is room for Democrats to grow that margin as evident with the Dallet margin.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 92

Counties: Buffalo, Jackson & Trempealeau
Largest City: Black River Falls
Democrat: Rob Grover
Republican: Treig Pronschinske (Incumbent)

Clinton: 40.90%
Trump: 54.33%

Swing: 26.34% Republican

Democratic Average: 49.70%
Republican Average: 44.76%

Dallet: 53.83%
Screnock: 46.17%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 47.92%
2016 Assembly Republican: 51.99%

Toss Up

Notes: This was the only Assembly district to flip in 2016, power in part by the massive swing that went towards Trump. Obama actually won this district in 2012 by almost 13 points. As you can see the incumbent still over-performed Clinton and Dallet got a lot of it back here in 2017, winning by 6. Also the Democrat raised more than the incumbent Republican during the last reporting period.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 93

Counties: Eau Claire, Dunn, Pepin & Pierce
Largest City: Prescott
Democrat: Charlene Charlie Warner
Republican: Warren Petryk (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.30%
Trump: 56.18%

Swing: 13.18% Republican

Democratic Average: 44.18%
Republican Average: 50.82%

Dallet: 51.36%
Screnock: 48.64%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 98.49%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district stretches from Western Eau Claire county over to Pierce County, minus River Falls. If the Democrat challenger would have raised more money I could have seen moving this to Lean Republican, but they did not do that great of a job and this district is not drawn to elect a Democrat (no River Falls, no Menomonee, etc).

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 94

Counties: La Crosse
Largest City: Onalaska
Democrat: Steve Doyle (Incumbent)
Republican: Albert Rohland

Clinton: 45.50%
Trump: 49.03%

Swing: 7.74% Republican

Democratic Average: 45.94%
Republican Average: 49.20%

Dallet: 59.86%
Screnock: 40.14%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 52.63%
2016 Assembly Republican: 47.37%

Likely Democrat

Notes: I only have this as Likely Democratic just to be safe. Steve Doyle is a very good incumbent who has been able to win during many anti-Democratic waves in the past in this everything but the City of LaCrosse, La Crosse County district. Also the Republican running hear basically raised no money.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 95

Counties: La Crosse
Largest City: La Crosse
Democrat: Jill BIllings (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 58.03%
Trump: 34.66%

Swing: 7.17% Republican

Democratic Average: 57.01% 
Republican Average: 36.43%

Dallet: 73.63%
Screnock: 26.37%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 100.00%
2016 Assembly Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This district is all of the City of La Crosse. It is the safest Democratic district in Southwestern Wisconsin. As you can see with the Dallet margin, there is room to grow here for the statewide Democrats, which could be beneficial in their statewide races.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 96

Counties: Crawford, Monroe & Vernon
Largest City: Prairie du Chien
Democrat: Paul Buhr
Republican: Loren Oldenburg

Clinton: 42.90%
Trump: 51.64%

Swing: 21.37% Republican

Democratic Average: 49.26%
Republican Average: 44.79%

Dallet: 55.70%
Screnock: 44.30%

2016 Assembly Democrat: 38.89%
2016 Assembly Republican: 61.09%

Lean Democrat (D+2)

Notes: Even though this district have a very strong swing to Trump in 2016, I think the Democrats pick up this district. A long time incumbent Republican decided to retire before this election. Also the fundamental look good for Democrats here. The Democrats won the average here in 2014, Dallet won by over 11 points in 2017, and the Democratic nominee out raised the Republican. Also I'm pretty sure that Feingold won this district, even as Clinton lost here.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 97

Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Waukesha - South
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Scott Allen (Incumbent)

Clinton: 39.37%
Trump: 54.43%

Swing: 4.06%

Democratic Average: 32.94%
Republican Average: 63.01%

Dallet: 43.38%
Screnock: 56.62%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 97.63%

Safe Republican

Notes: Given that Hillary only lost this district by 15 points and Dallet by 13, I'm bummed that a no Democrats chose to run here. This district, which takes the southern part of the City of Waukesha, is a very traditional Republican district, but given some of the recent trends in the suburbs and college educated voters, it would have been interesting to see how a Democrat would perform.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 98

Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Waukesha - North
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Adam Neylon (Incumbent)

Clinton: 35.20%
Trump: 59.58%

Swing: 7.39% Democratic

Democratic Average: 28.29%
Republican Average: 68.17%

Dallet: 35.98%
Screnock: 64.02%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 98.41%

Safe Republican

Notes: As you can see from the numbers, this district is more Republican than the prior district. This district takes Northern Waukesha, Pewaukee and Sussex. I'm still amazed at some of the swings toward the Democrats in these districts. I thought these districts were unmovable.

[Gass3268]

Assembly District 99

Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Hartland
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Cindi Duchow (Incumbent)

Clinton: 28.97%
Trump: 66.40%

Swing: 8.51% Democratic

Democratic Average: 23.35%
Republican Average: 73.32%

Dallet: 31.60%
Screnock: 68.40%

2016 Assembly Democrat: Uncontested
2016 Assembly Republican: 98.86%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district is takes the vast majority of Northwest Waukesha County, minus the Oconomowoc area. This is a very Republican district. Not much else to say.

[Gass3268]

State Senate previews will start tomorrow. I was able to get all the data I needed today to do them. I also hope to have some maps ready to go before the elections on Tuesday.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! It was really interesting.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 1

Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc & Outagamie
Largest City: Two Rivers
Democrat: Caleb Frostman (Incumbent)
Republican: André Jacque

Clinton: 38.51%
Trump: 56.19%

Swing: 12.83% Republican

Democratic Average: 41.97%
Republican Average: 53.09%

Dallet: 53.45%
Screnock: 46.55%

2014 Senate Democrat: 61.59%
2014 Senate Republican: -23.22%

Toss Up

Notes: This is a rematch of the special election that occurred on June 12th of this year in Northeast Wisconsin. In that special election, Democrat Caleb Frostman beat Republican Representative André Jacque by 2.83 points. It will be interesting to see what happens with this district now that turnout will be increased and their race will be further down the ballot. Word on the ground is that Democrats feel pretty good about this race going into Tuesday and it should be noted that Frostman raised over $60,000 more than Jacque during the last reporting period.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-South
Democrat: Tim Carpenter (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 66.10%
Trump: 29.09%

Swing: 1.73% Republican

Democratic Average: 61.09%
Republican Average: 33.78%

Dallet: 62.20%
Screnock: 37.80%

2014 Senate Democrat: 97.10%
2014 Senate Republican: Uncontested

Safe Democrat

Notes: This Senate District comprises of the vast majority of southern Milwaukee. It is the most Hispanic of all of the State Senate Districts in an area that used to be predominately Polish. Has always been a very Democratic area, regardless of what ethic group lived here.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 5

Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: Wauwatosa
Democrat: Julie Henszey
Republican: Dale Kooyenga

Clinton: 46.69%
Trump: 47.71%

Swing: 12.18% Democratic

Democratic Average: 39.07%
Republican Average: 56.61%

Dallet: 48.75%
Screnock: 51.25%

2014 Senate Democrat: 26.17%
2014 Senate Republican: 73.03%

Toss Up

Notes: This gerrymandered district, being vacated by the Republican Senate candidate Leah Vukmir, straddles the line between Milwaukee County and Waukesha County and is at risk of becoming a dummymander as you can see from the massive swing towards Clinton during the 2016 race. Dallet was able to keep most of this swing in the 2017 Supreme Court race even against a more traditional Conservative. Kooyenga is a current State Representative from Assembly District 14 and he's using his connections here to raise almost more than $175,000 more than his opponent. It will be interesting to see if Vukmir gets a home turf bump here and if that trickles down ballot or if here subpar campaign actually is a burden to Kooyenga.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-East
Democrat: Chris Larson (Incumbent)
Republican: Jason Red Arnold

Clinton: 58.47%
Trump: 35.56%

Swing: 2.65% Democratic

Democratic Average: 55.00%
Republican Average: 39.46%

Dallet: 67.13%
Screnock: 32.87%

2014 Senate Democrat: 59.50%
2014 Senate Republican: 40.26%

Safe Democrat

Notes: This is a district that takes the City of Milwaukee shoreline before going down to the three blue collar lakeshore suburbs and the City of Oak Creek. It's a very safe Democratic seat, but on a election night, look at the margins here to see if this is a place where the statewide Democrats have a chance to gain some new votes. Dallet and Clinton showed that a Democrat can do better than 55%.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 9

Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc & Sheboygan
Largest City: Sheboygan
Democrat: Kyle Whelton
Republican: Devin LeMhieu (Incumbent)

Clinton: 38.46%
Trump: 55.91%

Swing: 10.29% Republican

Democratic Average: 40.86%
Republican Average: 54.63%

Dallet: 47.51%
Screnock: 52.49%

2014 Senate Democrat: 39.94%
2014 Senate Republican: 59.95%

Likely Republican

Notes: This district is primarily the central Lake Michigan shoreline. Recently a pretty Republican area, it does have a Democratic history. Two reasons why I chose to put this at Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican. One, Dallet came within five points of winning this district last year. Two, the Democratic challenger actually out-raised the Republican incumbent by $10 (you read that right) in the last reporting period. Still, I can't move it any farther as there are some really nasty areas in this district for Democrats, particularly the Dutch regions in the southern part of Sheboygan County.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 11

Counties: Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth & Waukesha
Largest City: Fort Atkinson
Democrat: Uncontested
Republican: Steve Nass

Clinton: 37.08%
Trump: 57.46%

Swing: 6.70% Republican

Democratic Average: 36.41%
Republican Average: 58.81%

Dallet: 45.15%
Screnock: 54.85%

2014 Senate Democrat: 36.63%
2014 Senate Republican: 63.29%

Safe Republican

Notes: This is a partially gerrymandered district as the western parts of the district are fairly Democratic. You could take the western parts of this district and the western parts of Senate District 13 and you'd have a pretty nice Toss Up district. Not shocked that no Democrat chose to run here.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 13

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Washington & Waukesha
Largest City: Watertown
Democrat: Michelle Zahn
Republican: Scott Fitzgerald

Clinton: 37.06%
Trump: 57.63%

Swing: 7.98% Republican

Democratic Average: 37.62%
Republican Average: 57.67%

Dallet: 46.42%
Screnock: 53.58%

2014 Senate Democrat: 37.28%
2014 Senate Republican: 62.69%

Safe Republican

Notes: This district, like Senate District 11, takes Democratic areas in the west, this time in Dane County, and overpowers it with the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs. This district is also represented by the State Senate Majority Leader. As such, he's raised over $684,000 more than his Democratic opponent. This race will not be close.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 15

Counties: Dane, Green, Jefferson, Rock & Walworth
Largest City: Janesville
Democrat: Janis Ringhand (Incumbent)
Republican: Uncontested

Clinton: 52.67%
Trump: 41.47%

Swing: 13.55% Republican

Democratic Average: 56.39%
Republican Average: 37.99%

Dallet: 62.71%
Screnock: 37.29%

2014 Senate Democrat: 59.47%
2014 Senate Republican: 40.47%

Safe Democrat

Notes: Given the pretty strong swing that occurred here towards Republicans in 2016, I am kinda surprised that they couldn't find a Republican to run here. That being said, Dallet dominated here and typically Democrats do much better than Clinton did, so I guess I can't blame them either.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 17

Counties: Grant, Green, Iowa, Juneau, Lafayette, Monroe, Richland, Sauk & Vernon
Largest City: Platteville
Democrat: Kriss Marion
Republican: Howard Marklein (Incumbent)

Clinton: 43.02%
Trump: 51.53%

Swing: 22.86% Republican

Democratic Average: 49.24%
Republican Average: 44.86%

Dallet: 54.42%
Screnock: 45.58%

2014 Senate Democrat: 44.85%
2014 Senate Republican: 55.07%

Toss Up

Notes: This is the infamous Driftless area district that Republicans have held as long as I can remember even though Obama got over 60% here in 2008 and over 55% here in 2012. It had a very strong swing to Trump in 2016, but Dallet got a lot of it back in 2017. Also the 2014 average is not bad for Democrats. What concerns me the most here is that the incumbent has out-raised the challenger 2-1, but the Democrat did still get almost $500,000. This is probably the premier race of the night. 

[Gass3268]

Here is my Wisconsin State Assembly Projections in map form: