NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

Lol what? Dave Brat is a far righter (who we have 10 billion of in Congress anyways) who has contributed to the decay of our dysfunctional Congress.

Idk who Abigail is - they could be crazy. But Brat is one of the worst members of Congress, so it's pretty bizarre that you'd call him a "patriot", unless you're saying that ironically, or there is something wrong with your head.

Because Congress was just pitch perfect before 2014 when Eric Cantor lost renomination to some economics professor?

Excuse me if I like guys who aren't just a lapdog for leadership all too eager to slop at the government trough.

The freedom caucus has been one of the biggest reasons Congress has been utterly useless for the past few years. They've even been sabotaging members of their own party (what has the GOP done in the past 2 years with their massive majority!?!?). How can anyone like the freedom cucks, unless they are cucks themselves?

Eric Cantor was a dud but at least he wasn't a freedom cucker.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So Republicans are leading in every House race polled so far, except one in suburban Minneapolis. Why do we think the House is going to flip again?

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Good job cucking yourself 1 minute after you posted.

[IceSpear]

So Republicans are leading in every House race polled so far, except one in suburban Minneapolis. Why do we think the House is going to flip again?

Well, for starters, that isn't even accurate. The Dem is "ahead" in MN-08 and CA-48 is a tie. All of the races are statistical ties except for MN-03 and WV-03, the former which is rated a toss up and the latter which is split between toss up and lean R.

In fact, the only race where they've massively deviated from the "consensus" so far is MN-03, in the Dems' favor.

[Yellowhammer]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All these polls are pretty much going as I would have expected, except for CA-48, where I'm surprised Rouda doesn't have a clear lead, and MN-03, which I thought would be closer.  I'd also be surprised in Hurd is up by 10 when the poll is complete, but it's way too early to assume that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In fact, the only race where they've massively deviated from the "consensus" so far is MN-03, in the Dems' favor.

Currently, they are also showing Republicans leading by a large margin in TX-23, which is a District that Democrats must win if they are to have any chance at flipping the House.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So Siena a 538 A pollster has Miller up 48% to 40% over Ojeda with 499 responses.  But the hot shot leftists posting here told me she was DOA.  WELL I will not say she is going to win, but I do not think she is DOA.  She has some life in her.  Arise from the grave and kick some you know what.

Who exactly are these hotshot leftists saying she was DOA? What I remember is more along the lines of people panicking "OMG Ojeda is going to lose cuz racist WV hicks" etc.

And they are still saying that, despite the final result being within the MOE also (i.e., it could well actually be the case that the race is tied, or even Ojeda a bit ahead). Part of the stated purpose of doing these polls live is, after all, to help people see what MOE is actually like.

[Predictor]

In fact, the only race where they've massively deviated from the "consensus" so far is MN-03, in the Dems' favor.

Currently, they are also showing Republicans leading by a large margin in TX-23, which is a District that Democrats must win if they are to have any chance at flipping the House.

I've always considered TX-23 Tilt R/Lean R for a while. I'm aware of the district's demographics and that it went to Clinton, but Hurd is a fairly strong incumbent.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The 40-point gender gap in WV-03 is completely nuts.  How do people in West Virginia stay married??  I can't imagine living with a Trump supporter.

[IceSpear]

In fact, the only race where they've massively deviated from the "consensus" so far is MN-03, in the Dems' favor.

Currently, they are also showing Republicans leading by a large margin in TX-23, which is a District that Democrats must win if they are to have any chance at flipping the House.

People said PA-06 was a must win for Dems in 2006 and PA-12 was a must win for Reps in 2010, so I'd be careful with that.

While Hurd leading by a decent margin would be surprising to me, it wouldn't really be against the "consensus", as most pundits have moved it to lean R.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Regarding VA-07 and Brat currently being up 48-42, as I mentioned much earlier, the age crosstabs are quite weird.

Brat is ahead 81% - 8% among 18-29 year olds (a sample of 10).

Now that there is a large enough sample that the weighting is coming into effect, that is really bringing down Spanberger.

But I don't think any of us here believe that Brat is winning 18-29s 81-8.

Of course, the other age groups may also be off also. Spanberger is narrowly winning Seniors and age 45-64, but Brat is also winning age 30-44 by 19 points.

The point here is that these age crosstabs make very little sense currently, but as the sample goes up, there is a good chance that will change. And because of the weighting, that can have a significant effect on the topline, so this is one reason to think the topline might change pretty substantially.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes, I know it is VERY early in TX 23rd, but I think it's fair to say that I'm not thrilled.

[Virginiá]

It's not overly surprising I suppose. It's been floating around in election news articles that internals for Hurd are showing him holding on. Ditto with Curbelo for that matter. But we'll see. It is kind of interesting how he could barely win in 2014 but now be holding on in a big wave. That only further shows that this wave isn't really affecting Latino-heavy districts.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looking further into the WV-03 crosstab, Miller is winning 74-16 among the very small sample of 18-29 year olds.  This group was significantly undersampled, so it is likely that the 21 young people they did get were substantially overweighted.

[IceSpear]

So Siena a 538 A pollster has Miller up 48% to 40% over Ojeda with 499 responses.  But the hot shot leftists posting here told me she was DOA.  WELL I will not say she is going to win, but I do not think she is DOA.  She has some life in her.  Arise from the grave and kick some you know what.

Who exactly are these hotshot leftists saying she was DOA? What I remember is more along the lines of people panicking "OMG Ojeda is going to lose cuz racist WV hicks" etc.

And they are still saying that, despite the final result being within the MOE also (i.e., it could well actually be the case that the race is tied, or even Ojeda a bit ahead). Part of the stated purpose of doing these polls live is, after all, to help people see what MOE is actually like.

This is inaccurate. More people voted "lean D" in that WV-03 poll than voted "lean R", and that was especially true before I bumped it. Most voted toss up though.

But even putting aside the head to head margin, the poll is ugly for Ojeda. Almost as ugly as MN-03 was for Paulsen. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Ojeda to get a last minute surge among people who approve of Trump, think Republicans should take the House, think Trump is draining the swamp, don't think black people should have the right to kneel, and think discrimination against whites is worse than it is against minorities.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1039226998449692672

Something to think about.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I've always considered TX-23 Tilt R/Lean R for a while. I'm aware of the district's demographics and that it went to Clinton, but Hurd is a fairly strong incumbent.

It seems to be a common misconception about Republicans that represent heavily Hispanic districts in which the white voters are very heavily Republican that the Republican candidates are "strong candidates" or "strong incumbents."

Hurd is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

Valadao is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

What do they have in common? Not that they are actually strong incumbents, but that in their districts, Hispanics simply do not vote, ESPECIALLY in a midterm. Whereas white people DO vote. And they vote for Republicans. It is as simple as that.

You could stick Eric Paulsen in TX-23 and Will Hurd in MN-03 and then Eric Paulsen would be a "strong candidate" and Will Hurd would be a "DOA incumbent who has never had a tough race who is about to get triaged."

How do you think Blake Farenthold won TX-27? Same way. It most certainly was not that Blake Farenthold was a strong candidate.

[IceSpear]

This is inaccurate. More people voted "lean D" in that WV-03 poll than voted "lean R", and that was especially true before I bumped it. Most voted toss up though.

But even putting aside the head to head margin, the poll is ugly for Ojeda. Almost as ugly as MN-03 was for Paulsen. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Ojeda to get a last minute surge among people who approve of Trump, think Republicans should take the House, think Trump is draining the swamp, don't think black people should have the right to kneel, and think discrimination against whites is worse than it is against minorities.

The poll didn't ask about either of these things.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is inaccurate. More people voted "lean D" in that WV-03 poll than voted "lean R", and that was especially true before I bumped it. Most voted toss up though.

But even putting aside the head to head margin, the poll is ugly for Ojeda. Almost as ugly as MN-03 was for Paulsen. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Ojeda to get a last minute surge among people who approve of Trump, think Republicans should take the House, think Trump is draining the swamp, don't think black people should have the right to kneel, and think discrimination against whites is worse than it is against minorities.

The poll didn't ask about either of these things.

I think he's nitpicking the wording you used.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Beto does not win Hurd's district by at a bare minimum of high single digits (probably need even more than this), he will lose, end of story.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I've always considered TX-23 Tilt R/Lean R for a while. I'm aware of the district's demographics and that it went to Clinton, but Hurd is a fairly strong incumbent.

It seems to be a common misconception about Republicans that represent heavily Hispanic districts in which the white voters are very heavily Republican that the Republican candidates are "strong candidates" or "strong incumbents."

Hurd is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

Valadao is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

What do they have in common? Not that they are actually strong incumbents, but that in their districts, Hispanics simply do not vote, ESPECIALLY in a midterm. Whereas white people DO vote. And they vote for Republicans. It is as simple as that.

You could stick Eric Paulsen in TX-23 and Will Hurd in MN-03 and then Eric Paulsen would be a "strong candidate" and Will Hurd would be a "DOA incumbent who has never had a tough race who is about to get triaged."

How do you think Blake Farenthold won TX-27? Same way. It most certainly was not that Blake Farenthold was a strong candidate.

Both Valadao and Hurd did strongly outperform their party's presidential nominee in 2016. (Though I suppose Paulsen did too.)

[IceSpear]

I've always considered TX-23 Tilt R/Lean R for a while. I'm aware of the district's demographics and that it went to Clinton, but Hurd is a fairly strong incumbent.

It seems to be a common misconception about Republicans that represent heavily Hispanic districts in which the white voters are very heavily Republican that the Republican candidates are "strong candidates" or "strong incumbents."

Hurd is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

Valadao is regarded as a "strong incumbent."

What do they have in common? Not that they are actually strong incumbents, but that in their districts, Hispanics simply do not vote, ESPECIALLY in a midterm. Whereas white people DO vote. And they vote for Republicans. It is as simple as that.

You could stick Eric Paulsen in TX-23 and Will Hurd in MN-03 and then Eric Paulsen would be a "strong candidate" and Will Hurd would be a "DOA incumbent who has never had a tough race who is about to get triaged."

How do you think Blake Farenthold won TX-27? Same way. It most certainly was not that Blake Farenthold was a strong candidate.

Ackchyually, Paulsen had a tough race running for an open seat in 2008 of all years. Which makes the fact that he might get Blanched even more insane.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Looking further into the WV-03 crosstab, Miller is winning 74-16 among the very small sample of 18-29 year olds.  This group was significantly undersampled, so it is likely that the 21 young people they did get were substantially overweighted.

Yeah, but in WV it is somewhat more plausible that the 18-29s would be heavily Republican than in VA (maybe not quite 74-16, but still strongly Republican).

In general though, with how difficult it is to get young people to answer a poll, the ones that they do reach tend to have disproportionate influence. So that may be something to pay attention to in other polls.

In MN-03, for example, they got a much larger sample of 18-29 year olds (67), but in that case there wasn't that much difference between their support and older voters.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looking further into the WV-03 crosstab, Miller is winning 74-16 among the very small sample of 18-29 year olds.  This group was significantly undersampled, so it is likely that the 21 young people they did get were substantially overweighted.

Yeah, but in WV it is somewhat more plausible that the 18-29s would be heavily Republican than in VA (maybe not quite 74-16, but still strongly Republican).

In general though, with how difficult it is to get young people to answer a poll, the ones that they do reach tend to have disproportionate influence. So that may be something to pay attention to in other polls.

In MN-03, for example, they got a much larger sample of 18-29 year olds (67), but in that case there wasn't that much difference between their support and older voters.

It may be true that younger voters in WV are heavily Republican.  I just think pollsters should be very wary of overweighting very small subsamples that will tend to show extreme results.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This is inaccurate. More people voted "lean D" in that WV-03 poll than voted "lean R", and that was especially true before I bumped it. Most voted toss up though.

But even putting aside the head to head margin, the poll is ugly for Ojeda. Almost as ugly as MN-03 was for Paulsen. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Ojeda to get a last minute surge among people who approve of Trump, think Republicans should take the House, think Trump is draining the swamp, don't think black people should have the right to kneel, and think discrimination against whites is worse than it is against minorities.

For sure, I am not saying in any way that Ojeda is favored, just that he has a chance (not too much worse of a chance than it seemed like he had before this poll came out, but indeed somewhat worse).