NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Pollster]

Margin of error stops changing in a significant way once the total population hits 20,000. Virtually every race that a pollster will cover in their career meets that threshold as it often requires a phone sample of at least that amount to get enough responses (with live callers, robocalling requires less). Campaigns in territory with populations smaller than 20k typically can't afford traditional polling anyway.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn answers a number of methodology questions in this thread: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039594928257617921.

[Predictor]

VA-7 is live again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bryce will be down by 4.

[Predictor]

TX-23 is back too. I'm going to laugh my ass off if Hurd over-performs his 2016 margins at all.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nate Cohn answers a number of methodology questions in this thread: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039594928257617921.

So:

a) 1/3 of their respondents did not vote in 2014.

b) They are not using the same weights or likely voter modeling as in typical (previous) Siena polls, although it is similar.

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039595834365681669

Guys, these polls aren't using a 2014 electorate.

[Xing]

WI-01 is an interesting choice. I expect Steil to be ahead, but who knows. I'd say the only surprising result for me so far is TX-23, but I have a hard time believing that Trump's approval rating is even there, and it does seem like their sample is a little older than they were shooting for.

[Florida Man for Crime]

God, I wish there was text polling. Or some reliable way to do it over an app. Response rates would be much higher.

Since Congress is run by politicians, and politicians want to poll, they might pass a law to allow text polling some time in the next few years.

[Florida Man for Crime]

But politicians also love getting votes, and the people who vote for politicians really don't like getting spam.

Yeah, they wouldn't legalize unwanted texting in general, only for polls.

Similarly, when Congress passed the Do-Not-Call list, they carved out an exception for political calling because they wanted to continue being able to poll/do fundraising.

[Florida Man for Crime]

WI-01 has started.

With 12 respondents in, THE IRON STACHE LEADS 50-41...

[Bidenworth2020]

WI-01 is an interesting choice. I expect Steil to be ahead, but who knows. I'd say the only surprising result for me so far is TX-23, but I have a hard time believing that Trump's approval rating is even there, and it does seem like their sample is a little older than they were shooting for.

cruz also leads Beto by 4 in the poll, lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01 voters want repubs to have the house 60-20 but #populist Bryce is tied 46-46!

Looks like IceSpear was wrong about candidate quality

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really hoping for Bryce, but IK he is not favored.

[IceSpear]

WI-01 voters want repubs to have the house 60-20 but #populist Bryce is tied 46-46!

Looks like IceSpear was wrong about candidate quality

And with the margin of error at a mere 30 points no less. I've officially been rekt.

Oops, looks like Steil is up by double digits now. I win.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01 voters want repubs to have the house 60-20 but #populist Bryce is tied 46-46!

Looks like IceSpear was wrong about candidate quality

And with the margin of error at a mere 30 points no less. I've officially been rekt.

Oops, looks like Steil is up by double digits now. I win.

Generic ballot is R+30 and Bryce is only down by 10. This means that Bryce would win in districts like MI-01!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039627190822944770

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039627190822944770

This is exactly what I was concerned about last night in the WV-03 poll.
It's a repeat of that one young black Trump supporter who always counted as like 30 people in the LAT tracking poll in 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weighting basically makes the MoE into a meaningless statistic. The real MoE to look at would be that of each weighted subsample - which, needless to say, is enormous.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, in VA-07, actually only 13 respondents 18-29 right now. Out of 372.

The 18-44 electorate is still only 26% of the poll. 45+ is nearly 3/4 (74%). So the fact that Brat is only +5 with such an old electorate honestly doesn't bold that well to me.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039541588312170496

[wbrocks67]

Honestly can't take TX-23 seriously. It's a Clinton +3 district that now has a Trump +2 approval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting(?) that WI-01 has a much better response rate (about 3.5% so far) than the others.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Interesting(?) that WI-01 has a much better response rate (about 3.5% so far) than the others.

Also WI-01 has the same issue as VA-07 with 18-29 year old voters favoring Republicans by a large margin so far.

72-20 Repubclian with sample of 7.

Meanwhile the 18-29s in VA-07 are still 64-24 GOP.

[IceSpear]

Interesting(?) that WI-01 has a much better response rate (about 3.5% so far) than the others.

Also WI-01 has the same issue as VA-07 with 18-29 year old voters favoring Republicans by a large margin so far.

72-20 Repubclian with sample of 7.

Meanwhile the 18-29s in VA-07 are still 64-24 GOP.

Didn't you hear about Generation NaZi?