Justice Kavanaugh Confirmation Hearing *DISCUSSION AND LIVE COMMENTARY*

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/skantrow/status/1044596637950251008

Hot damn, who would have thought that a guy who was a preppy party kid and grew up to be a Republican operative who worked on Ken Starr's team and GWB's administration would lie on TV about his sexual history! I am shocked! Shocked I say!

[Florida Man for Crime]

Murkowski backs FBI probe of Kavanaugh claims

They are starting to crack.

[Virginiá]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon

I hadn't thought of this before:

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Also this is worth posting:

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[pppolitics]

If McConnell don't have the votes, would he still put the nomination to the floor anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do y'all think it's significant that McConnell's tune went from "he will be confirmed" to "he will get an up-or-down vote"? Is it just about keeping the pretense of taking Blasey's testimony seriously, or could he know he doesn't have the votes?

If McConnell don't have the votes, would he still put the nomination to the floor anyway?

Demonstrating his loyalty and putting all the blame on Collins and Murkowski, I guess? It doesn't make much sense, but nothing in the GOP's behavior since this broke out has made much sense.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If McConnell don't have the votes, would he still put the nomination to the floor anyway?

Yeah, potentially because Trump is too stubborn/stupid to pull Kavanaugh without that. Remember Trump wanted a vote on repealing Obamacare even when it was known in advance that it would fail.

[Virginiá]

Do y'all think it's significant that McConnell's tune went from "he will be confirmed" to "he will get an up-or-down vote"? Is it just about keeping the pretense of taking Blasey's testimony seriously, or could he know he doesn't have the votes?

If McConnell don't have the votes, would he still put the nomination to the floor anyway?

Demonstrating his loyalty and putting all the blame on Collins and Murkowski, I guess? It doesn't make much sense, but nothing in the GOP's behavior since this broke out has made much sense.

Given that McConnell is a ruthless political tactician, it makes more sense for him to just pull the nominee so as to shield his Senators from any potential backlash that may come from voting against him. All this guy cares about is winning elections and remaining majority leader, and putting Republican Senators in a situation like that goes counter to his long-term electoral strategy.

But... maybe there are other factors he considers more important, or something. I dunno.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Do y'all think it's significant that McConnell's tune went from "he will be confirmed" to "he will get an up-or-down vote"? Is it just about keeping the pretense of taking Blasey's testimony seriously, or could he know he doesn't have the votes?

He may either know or suspect that he doesn't have the votes, with Murkowski cracking/breaking ranks now on the FBI. Rumors are that the GOP is tanking in polls now, and if that is the case and it is clear that holding firm on Kavanaugh will tank the GOP in the midterms, you are going to see more Senators starting to break ranks as well and join Murkowski.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Given that McConnell is a ruthless political tactician, it makes more sense for him to just pull the nominee so as to shield his Senators from any potential backlash that may come from voting against him. All this guy cares about is winning elections and remaining majority leader, and putting Republican Senators in a situation like that goes counter to his long-term electoral strategy.

But... maybe there are other factors he considers more important, or something. I dunno.

That's precisely what would make sense, but...

There's Trump to take into account.

Trump is the only person who can pull Kavanaugh, and Trump is strongly committed to Kavanaugh for 2 reasons:

1) Trump himself has been subject to credible sexual assault allegations.
2) Kavanaugh is Trump's best bet to rule in his favor in Mueller-investigation related cases, which is why Trump wanted Kavanaugh in the first place.

So McConnell may have to show in the form of a failed vote that he doesn't have the votes in order to have any chance of getting the idiot in chief to understand the situation and pull Kavanaugh's nomination.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do y'all think it's significant that McConnell's tune went from "he will be confirmed" to "he will get an up-or-down vote"? Is it just about keeping the pretense of taking Blasey's testimony seriously, or could he know he doesn't have the votes?

He may either know or suspect that he doesn't have the votes, with Murkowski cracking/breaking ranks now on the FBI. Rumors are that the GOP is tanking in polls now, and if that is the case and it is clear that holding firm on Kavanaugh will tank the GOP in the midterms, you are going to see more Senators starting to break ranks as well and join Murkowski.

Do you have a source for that? I imagine you're talking about internals.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Do you have a source for that? I imagine you're talking about internals.

Not a specific source, it is just chatter/rumor. I am just referring to what people like Dave Wasserman/Nate Cohn/Nate Silver are talking about on twitter. But there is a strong chance that they know something about internal polls that we do not.

For example:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1044630305364221957

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1044640768772763649

Kavanaugh likely to be confirmed over the weekend.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have a source for that? I imagine you're talking about internals.

Not a specific source, it is just chatter/rumor. I am just referring to what people like Dave Wasserman/Nate Cohn/Nate Silver are talking about on twitter. But there is a strong chance that they know something about internal polls that we do not.

For example:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1044630305364221957

Those comments don't seem like they're necessarily referring to a GOP drop following the accusations, though. I hope there's been a further drop over it, but we probably have to wait to see if it materializes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1044640768772763649

Kavanaugh likely to be confirmed over the weekend.

Mitch is a tool

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1044640768772763649

Kavanaugh likely to be confirmed over the weekend.

Mitch is a tool

These guys have no idea what they are doing. You could at least wait until after the hearing to confirm, but doing this just brings out public discourse.

If this occurs, I could honestly see impeachment for Kavanaugh.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1044640768772763649

Kavanaugh likely to be confirmed over the weekend.

Mitch is a tool

These guys have no idea what they are doing. You could at least wait until after the hearing to confirm, but doing this just brings out public discourse.

If this occurs, I could honestly see impeachment for Kavanaugh.

Good luck getting the same group of characters who approved him to remove him from office. You're going to need it.

Our Senators have busy lives. They need to know if they are going to be working for the people this weekend. Typical of management to instruct them that work is likely to be done.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's all up to Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Jeff Flake. They are the people who will or will not make Brett Kavanaugh a Supreme Court Justice.

[brucejoel99]

It's all up to Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Jeff Flake. They are the people who will or will not make Brett Kavanaugh a Supreme Court Justice.

I just read the NY Times article on Murkowksi's thinking re: this nomination & the allegations & I don't know, maybe it's just a gut feeling but I think the 3 of them vote him down.

[Gass3268]

Not the company Kavanaugh would like to keep:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1044665901122015232

[Sestak]

McConnell now says he expects Kavanaugh confirmed.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1044656625469075456

[GeorgiaModerate]

McConnell now says he expects Kavanaugh confirmed.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1044656625469075456

I would expect him to say that whether or not he actually has the votes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This whole thing is a sham https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1044676041074184202

[IndustrialJustice]

McConnell is just peacocking until he actually sets a date.

[SCNCmod]

I realize Avenatti is a blowhard... But are there any rumors regarding the validity of Avenatti's supposed client?   or what the accusation is?

My guess (or the impression I sort of got)- was his client/clients were going to provide a narrative that Kavanaugh's group of friends had a practice of getting girls drunk to take advantage of them... and that Kavanaugh participated in the process of getting them drunk, egging on the friends, etc... rather than participating in the sexual part (granted getting them drunk  & egging some of the guys on is almost just as bad...and if seen as credible would certainly sink his nomination... and if true provides a pattern of behaviour/ party culture that would support Dr. Ford's claim).

Is this the impression others got- or do you think there was a more direct physical claim relating to Kavanaugh himself

[Tintrlvr]

It's all up to Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Jeff Flake. They are the people who will or will not make Brett Kavanaugh a Supreme Court Justice.

I just read the NY Times article on Murkowksi's thinking re: this nomination & the allegations & I don't know, maybe it's just a gut feeling but I think the 3 of them vote him down.

Agree, maybe +Corker. Although it's still unclear whether McConnell lets Kavanaugh come to a vote at all (despite his current posturing); maybe so, in order to shore up Collins for 2020 when she votes No, but maybe not, to avoid the embarrassment of the vote failing.