Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[LimoLiberal]

This is depressing.

[Adam Griffin]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

[ON Progressive]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

[Doimper]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

[ON Progressive]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

[KingSweden]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

[Storr]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

This applies to Charlotte as well.

[KingSweden]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

This applies to Charlotte as well.

^^^

Though the CTL burbs aren’t growing faster than ATL/DC

[GeorgiaModerate]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

This applies to Charlotte as well.

Charlotte's a lot closer to the Triangle in population than to Atlanta or DC.  Metro populations:

DC: 6.1M
Atlanta: 5.8M
Charlotte: 2.4M
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill: 1.2M

[ON Progressive]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

A huge percentage of the DC Metro is outside VA though. What's helped VA is not only NoVa trending D, but also Richmond and Hampton Roads. There's nothing like that going on in NC.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Loving all the national coverage Oprah is getting for Ms. Abrams.

[libertpaulian]

Loving all the national coverage Oprah is getting for Ms. Abrams.

To paraphrase Gillum, "Coverage doesn't vote.  People do."

[Gass3268]

Oprah triggered Trump:

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1058098749053042688

[Adam Griffin]

3,500 showed up to the Pence rally in Dalton...

Considering that's max capacity at our region's largest venue, that probably means there were more who were turned away.

[Adam Griffin]

Still, after all this time and all the work that's obviously been happening everywhere...it really hits you that Georgia is now a truly competitive state when you remember that Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey and Mike Pence are all making campaign stops in the state in the same 24-hour period.

I just hope it doesn't get stuck in the category of "Always close but never goes D unless it's a really good year nationally" like North Carolina seemingly has.

I could be wrong, obviously, but the massive growth in the Atlanta Metro feels a lot more reminiscent of NoVA than the Research Triangle.

What was the big difference between NoVA and the Research Triangle that prevented NC from turning into VA anyway? It seems like both of them are similarly D, but the main difference is that other metros in VA are swinging D but not really so much for NC.

I mean Atlanta and DC are considerably larger, more established metros than Raleigh

A huge percentage of the DC Metro is outside VA though. What's helped VA is not only NoVa trending D, but also Richmond and Hampton Roads. There's nothing like that going on in NC.

NC, however, has a lot of mid-sized metros all over the state that are growing; I've argued in the past that this dynamic is a big part of why white rural voters' support of Democrats hasn't completely plummeted like in many other states (GA & IL included) - because instead of having just one big metro that's an easy bogeyman and far away from these people, they have many that influence media and perception in every corner of the state. It's pretty crazy when you think about the fact that Mitt Romney only cracked 70% in 10% (and Trump 22%) of its counties. In GA, it was 33% and 40%, respectively.

Though it's obvious that NC rural whites are voting for Democrats less and less - and that is why the state has been teetering on the brink for so long; unlike GA, it doesn't have a much larger black population and a much bigger percentage of the Democratic vote back in 2008 was coming from white voters.

[Hammy]

^^^ Related to above, I'm back at looking at the EV totals by county and comparing them to the final electorate from 2014. Essentially, I took each county's EV totals and stacked them against Deal/Carter's performance, to calculate what the statewide margin would be if every county's voters supported Abrams and/or Kemp by the same margins as Deal and/or Carter. It's not great:

2014: 52.75% Deal, 44.89% Carter (Deal +7.86)
2018: 53.22% Kemp, 44.42% Abrams (Kemp +8.80)

Just to be clear: this isn't saying that Kemp is ahead by 9 right now, or that he would even win among all voters by the same margin. What it is saying is that historically GOP counties and/or constituencies are actually slightly more represented right now in the 2018 EV than they were among all votes from 2014. In essence, it means likely GOP territory is outpacing DEM territory in early vote relative to what we'd expect in a general election overall, irrespective of the figures. That's not good.

Now, Abrams could very well be doing better in even heavily-GOP counties, there could be more Democrats and non-white voters turning out in otherwise hostile counties for Democrats, Abrams could certainly be over-performing compared to Carter in a variety of heavily-populated counties that Deal won (particularly in metro ATL), and so forth. Nevertheless, what this shows is that right now, base Democratic areas are slacking relative to base GOP areas, which isn't exactly a natural indicator of success.

So we're kinda f**ked, in a way?

Seriously, wtf is wrong with my state?

The guy running the election is running for office and illegally removed 300,000 people who would vote against him from the voter rolls, that's what's wrong.

[Buzz]

Will be great to have President Trump in Macon, GA on Sunday!  Im sure it will have a huge turnout!  Weather is looking horrible for the whole state on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms likely.  Will be interesting how this impacts turnout.  Regardless, excited to see Georgia's future under the direction of Governor Kemp!!

[Inmate Trump]

Will be great to have President Trump in Macon, GA on Sunday!  Im sure it will have a huge turnout!  Weather is looking horrible for the whole state on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms likely.  Will be interesting how this impacts turnout.  Regardless, excited to see Georgia's future under the direction of Governor Kemp!!

Ugh.

[Suburbia]

I wonder if there is a black Kemp supporter. They may be ostracized.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Nope, Abrams wins black voters 900,000 - 0

[Suburbia]

^^^ Nope, Abrams wins black voters 900,000 - 0

You think a black conservative Georgian would vote for Abrams?

[Suburbia]

If Kemp wins on Tuesday, will Georgia Democrats view Kemp as illegitimate and will there be protests in Atlanta?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058210496967532544

[Mr. Smith]

If Kemp wins on Tuesday, will Georgia Democrats view Kemp as illegitimate and will there be protests in Atlanta?

It'd be deserved considering all the ballots thrown out.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058210496967532544

So no minority surge. Whites were 58.2% of the vote going into today.