Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

52% AA!?

That sounds good to me!

Now, the question is whether the AA % continues to be higher in the 2nd week and Dem turnout accelerates this week as the end of early voting approaches (as it has often done in the past). If so, then I think Dems can feel good. If not, then, well... it seems like there has been a lot of GOP turnout in the first week, so it will be worrying if we now simply revert to the trend of the previous week.

[TarHeelDem]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jimmy Carter writes to Brian Kemp urging him to step down.  Full text of the letter here.

[Zaybay]

Looks like Kemp has reason to worry with those turnout numbers!

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 24,559 valid votes were cast yesterday (Sunday); the accepted ballot total stands at 1,188,702 votes: 46.60% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 169% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 171% Saturday).

The white electorate dropped 0.6 points compared to Saturday. The electorate that voted Sunday was 52% black, 31% white and 17% other (was 51/32/17 on Saturday). Sunday's electorate was 60% female, compared to 56% on Satuday.

Sunday was obviously a great day for Democrats; some summaries of that have already been provided earlier. I'm going to wait for today's updates before drawing any meaningful conclusions (especially considering Sunday's turnout was only about one-fourth of an average EV day) mainly because I'm in a rush this morning.

Currently, 16.1% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 15.8% on Saturday). On Sunday, 29% of all voters were under 40.

Code:

White	696549	58.6% (-0.6)
Black	355500	29.9% (+0.6)
Latino	15586         1.3% (0.0)
Asian	15167         1.3% (0.0)
Other	105900       8.9% (0.0)

Female	643653	54.1% (+0.1)
Male		516102 	43.4% (-0.2)
Unknown	28947        2.4% (0.0)

18-29	 87372	7.4%   (+0.2)
30-39	103240	8.7%   (+0.1)
40-49       163574	13.8%  (+0.2)
50-64       387025	32.6%  (+0.1)
65+         419453      35.3%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 28038       2.4%   (+0.1)

[libertpaulian]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 24,559 valid votes were cast yesterday (Sunday); the accepted ballot total stands at 1,188,702 votes: 46.60% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 169% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 171% Saturday).

The white electorate dropped 0.6 points compared to Saturday. The electorate that voted Sunday was 52% black, 31% white and 17% other (was 51/32/17 on Saturday). Sunday's electorate was 60% female, compared to 56% on Satuday.

Sunday was obviously a great day for Democrats; some summaries of that have already been provided earlier. I'm going to wait for today's updates before drawing any meaningful conclusions (especially considering Sunday's turnout was only about one-fourth of an average EV day) mainly because I'm in a rush this morning.

Currently, 16.1% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 15.8% on Saturday). On Sunday, 29% of all voters were under 40.

Code:

White	696549	58.6% (-0.6)
Black	355500	29.9% (+0.6)
Latino	15586         1.3% (0.0)
Asian	15167         1.3% (0.0)
Other	105900       8.9% (0.0)

Female	643653	54.1% (+0.1)
Male		516102 	43.4% (-0.2)
Unknown	28947        2.4% (0.0)

18-29	 87372	7.4%   (+0.2)
30-39	103240	8.7%   (+0.1)
40-49       163574	13.8%  (+0.2)
50-64       387025	32.6%  (+0.1)
65+         419453      35.3%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 28038       2.4%   (+0.1)

If Abrams wants a shot at winning, she needs to make sure that white voters are below 60% (I'm also including decimals that round off to 60%) come 7 PM on Election Day.

The fact that a mere 25,000 voters showed up yesterday is very disappointing.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that a mere 25,000 voters showed up yesterday is very disappointing.

It was double the number of people who voted on Sunday in 2014 and only a handful of counties were open, some of them for only about 3-4 hours. Those numbers are good IMO. Hopefully black participation ratchets up in this last week as many counties open additional EV locations.

[libertpaulian]

The fact that a mere 25,000 voters showed up yesterday is very disappointing.

It was double the number of people who voted on Sunday in 2014 and only a handful of counties were open, some of them for only about 3-4 hours. Those numbers are good IMO. Hopefully black participation ratchets up in this last week as many counties open additional EV locations.

Ahh, makes sense.  A little context goes a long way.  In that case, those are great numbers, given the circumstances!

[Adam Griffin]

If Abrams wants a shot at winning, she needs to make sure that white voters are below 60% (I'm also including decimals that round off to 60%) come 7 PM on Election Day.

I agree - but it's worth noting that there may be a smaller gap in the EV/ED split this cycle. In 2014, there was a 9 to 10.5-point gap (depending on whether you count ED vs in-person EV, or throw mail ballots into EV) between Deal and Carter:

Type	Deal	Carter	Margin
Election Day	54.3	43.0	R+11.3
EV (AIP)	49.6	48.8	R+0.8
EV (AIP+VBM)	50.3	48.0	R+2.3

However, there is evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing more of its 2014 ED vote than Democrats are, meaning the gap could be smaller. Additionally, higher early turnout - at least to some degree - will reduce the number of people voting on Election Day. However, working against this trend is the fact that a lot of 2014 Democratic voters and non-voters opted to vote by mail, likely enhancing Democratic performance in EV and potentially widening that gap once again.

Right now, if the current EV totals along racial lines ended up being the final result and Abrams scored 23% of whites, 95% of blacks and 67% of the rest, she'd be on the cusp of grabbing 50%. Those numbers aren't unrealistic figures, but the question is: do these figures get friendly enough in the final week to offset the whiteness of Election Day voters?

Honestly and nevertheless of the gap, I'm hoping for a final EV electorate that's sub-56% white. Any higher than that and it's going to be nerve-wracking.

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Atlanta on Friday:

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1056982444195360770

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama is coming to Atlanta on Friday:

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1056982444195360770

What a difference four years makes.

[Adam Griffin]

Biggest day of voting in Georgia so far this cycle; surpassed 150k votes (including in-person and mail).

Breakdowns to come...

[Buzz]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

[DrScholl]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

That is not his purpose for running. He is running for White Georgia and White Georgia only.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

That is not his purpose for running. He is running for Rich White Male Georgia and Rich White Male Georgia only.

[IceSpear]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

That is not his purpose for running. He is running for Rich White Male Georgia and Rich White Male Georgia only.

Yeah, I'm sure Kemp ran an ad about rounding up illegals in his truck to appeal to rich white men and not the bubbas.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Oh wow, the Black % actually went slightly up today. I was afraid it might go down at least for today and tomorrow (before going up late in the week).

Looks like there is probably/hopefully going to be a very good surge for Abrams over the week's early vote.

[Gass3268]

Biggest day of voting in Georgia so far this cycle; surpassed 150k votes (including in-person and mail).

Breakdowns to come...

I've seen them, another great day!

[Antonio the Sixth]

You can always count on IceSpear to come out in defense of the real victims here, rich people.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Voters today in GA:

White --- 89224 --- 57%
Black --- 48136 --- 30.8%
Hispanic --- 2214 --- 1.4%
Asian --- 2026 --- 1.3%
Other --- 14921 --- 9.5%

This would normally be a day (I think) when Republicans would do a bit better on the weekend, but instead Black turnout already seems to be going up. Hopefully it continues to go up over the course of the week - as I gather from what Griff has previously said, that has been the case in the past.

[IceSpear]

You can always count on IceSpear to come out in defense of the real victims here, rich people.

I like how you didn't respond to the actual point. Rich white men mostly want "illegals" in the country to exploit them for cheap labor. Kemp, like Trump, rails against them to cater to the actual Republican base in Georgia, the Racist GA Hicks.