Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[QAnonKelly]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Ha, where is he at?

Kennesaw State University

[KingSweden]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Man, he’s looking old...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1055882259469864967

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1055882259469864967

He's such a freedom fighter!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1055882259469864967

He's such a freedom fighter!

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1055882259469864967

He's such a freedom fighter!

One of my favorite senators in this Congress.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,280 valid votes were cast yesterday (Friday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 1,052,779 votes: 41.27% of total 2014 turnout. We are now exceeding 2014's total EV turnout by more than 100,000 votes.

Early vote totals are 173% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 180% Thursday).

Once again, essentially no change in the racial composition of the overall electorate from Thursday. The electorate that voted Friday was 60% white, 28% black and 12% other (was 60/29/11 on Thursday). Friday's electorate was was substantially less female (53%), compared to 57% on Thursday. The youth vote had one of its biggest surges on Friday; the 65+ crowd lost nearly 2 points of its share (from 39.6% to 38.0%), while those under 50 gained more than a point (from 26.5% to 27.7%).

Code:

White	631480	60.0% (0.0)
Black	306695	29.1% (-0.2)
Latino	12920         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	12508         1.2% (0.0)
Other	89176         8.5% (+0.2)

Female	567948	53.9% (-0.2)
Male		461822 	43.9% (+0.1)
Unknown	23009         2.2% (+0.1)

18-29	 69574	6.6%   (+0.4)
30-39	 85724	8.1%   (+0.3)
40-49       136436	13.0%  (+0.5)
50-64       338660	32.2%  (+0.3)
65+         400135      38.0%  (-1.6)
Unknown	 22250       2.1%   (+0.1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsGPB/status/1056168876659105793

The link is video of a long and growing line outside a polling place.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I got a robocall from a candidate in HD-119 on my home landline.   The funny thing is I don't live anywhere close to that district.  It's way over by Athens.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Who has a better chance, Barrow or Abarms

Barrow will pull a variety of votes that Abrams won't get (especially in the Onion Belt), but Republicans are more consistent at actually voting all the way down the ballot. Hard to say.

Valarie Wilson was the only Democrat in recent elections to actually not underperform (she got the exact same % of the vote as Carter in 2014 - 44.89% - and only 12k fewer votes), but that was almost certainly due to crossover support from teachers.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Onion Belt?

It's a style.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6Dc7W6jXCo

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Man, he’s looking old...

Wow, that is sad to see him looking so old.

[junior chįmp]

Neato

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1056380968423047168

[libertpaulian]

Neato

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1056380968423047168

...and we still have Souls to the Polls tomorrow!

[Gass3268]

The white vote % almost dropped below 59%.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Neato

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1056380968423047168

...and we still have Souls to the Polls tomorrow!

Yes! Stacey will be having a huge rally in downtown Atlanta with Common and Andrew Young tomorrow. Let's close this last weekend of Early Voting out strong!

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1056388813558333441
Yassss

[Adam Griffin]

As I stated a couple of weeks ago, I switched from McDonald's numbers to the Georgia Votes figures; there is a difference but I cannot remember exactly what was the difference between the two reporting figures (and I went drinking tonight - go figure!). Anyway:



According to Georgia Votes, an additional 111,364 valid votes were cast yesterday (Saturday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 1,164,143 votes: 45.63% of total 2014 turnout. This is one of the highest voting days this year, if not the highest. I'll have to go back and look.

Early vote totals are 171% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 173% Friday).

The white electorate dropped by nearly a full percentage point compared to yesterday. The electorate that voted Friday was 51% white, 32% black and 17% other (was 60/28/12 on Friday). Friday's electorate was 56% female, compared to 53% on Friday.

Younger voters had a big surge on Saturday, as did the unknown and other categories across both gender and race. This points to a lot of first-time voters casting ballots on Saturday; you'll notice how the black category specifically was only responsible for less than half the demographic shift today (though it's likely a large number of first-time voters are black, just currently classified incorrectly) . The 65+ crowd lost more than 2 more points of its share (from 38.0% to 35.8%), while those under 50 gained close to two points (from 27.7 to 29.4%).

Currently, 15.8% of voters are under the age of 40.

Code:

White	688975	59.2% (-0.8)
Black	342776	29.3% (+0.3)
Latino	15183         1.3% (+0.1)
Asian	14622         1.3% (+0.1)
Other	102587       8.9% (+0.3)

Female	629040	54.0% (+0.1)
Male		507363 	43.6% (-0.3)
Unknown	27740        2.4% (+0.2)

18-29	 83912	7.2%   (+0.6)
30-39	 99595	8.6%   (+0.5)
40-49       158510	13.6%  (+0.6)
50-64       378906	32.5%  (+0.3)
65+         416366      35.8%  (-2.2)
Unknown	 26854       2.3%   (+0.2)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is encouraging. Hopefully it is not *just* a weekend thing and the trend continues over the next week.

[Adam Griffin]

I was just looking at the stats for Whitfield and realized we're getting close to 40% of all voters being those who didn't vote in 2014. I was thinking it might be a Latino thing, but Hall is actually below the statewide average and Gwinnett is only about half as much above the statewide total compared to Whitfield. I hope this bodes well for our local performance; haven't looked to see if there are any other random counties with a higher non-voter share.

EDIT: for what it's worth, there are several counties in the broader region that are hovering at 38-43%. Every other one of these counties is heavily-GOP and heavily-white: ugh.

By CD, GA-1, 6, 7 & 14 have the highest non-voter numbers as of now: kind of a mixed bag overall.

[Mehmentum]

I was just looking at the stats for Whitfield and realized we're getting close to 40% of all voters being those who didn't vote in 2014. I was thinking it might be a Latino thing, but Hall is actually below the statewide average and Gwinnett is only about half as much above the statewide total compared to Whitfield. I hope this bodes well for our local performance; haven't looked to see if there are any other random counties with a higher non-voter share.

EDIT: for what it's worth, there are several counties in the broader region that are hovering at 38-43%. Every other one of these counties is heavily-GOP and heavily-white: ugh.

By CD, GA-1, 6, 7 & 14 have the highest non-voter numbers as of now: kind of a mixed bag overall.

Looking at Georgia Votes, its pretty clear what's going on.  28.8% of whites who have voted early didn't vote in 2014, compared to 29.6% of blacks, 62.1% of Hispanics, and 65% of Asians.  Meanwhile, 77.7% of early voters 18-29 didn't vote in 2014, while that number is 17.9% for those 65+.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was just looking at the stats for Whitfield and realized we're getting close to 40% of all voters being those who didn't vote in 2014. I was thinking it might be a Latino thing, but Hall is actually below the statewide average and Gwinnett is only about half as much above the statewide total compared to Whitfield. I hope this bodes well for our local performance; haven't looked to see if there are any other random counties with a higher non-voter share.

EDIT: for what it's worth, there are several counties in the broader region that are hovering at 38-43%. Every other one of these counties is heavily-GOP and heavily-white: ugh.

By CD, GA-1, 6, 7 & 14 have the highest non-voter numbers as of now: kind of a mixed bag overall.

Looking at Georgia Votes, its pretty clear what's going on.  28.8% of whites who have voted early didn't vote in 2014, compared to 29.6% of blacks, 62.1% of Hispanics, and 65% of Asians.  Meanwhile, 77.7% of early voters 18-29 didn't vote in 2014, while that number is 17.9% for those 65+.

Keep in mind that people under age 22 could not have voted in 2014.

[Mehmentum]

I was just looking at the stats for Whitfield and realized we're getting close to 40% of all voters being those who didn't vote in 2014. I was thinking it might be a Latino thing, but Hall is actually below the statewide average and Gwinnett is only about half as much above the statewide total compared to Whitfield. I hope this bodes well for our local performance; haven't looked to see if there are any other random counties with a higher non-voter share.

EDIT: for what it's worth, there are several counties in the broader region that are hovering at 38-43%. Every other one of these counties is heavily-GOP and heavily-white: ugh.

By CD, GA-1, 6, 7 & 14 have the highest non-voter numbers as of now: kind of a mixed bag overall.

Looking at Georgia Votes, its pretty clear what's going on.  28.8% of whites who have voted early didn't vote in 2014, compared to 29.6% of blacks, 62.1% of Hispanics, and 65% of Asians.  Meanwhile, 77.7% of early voters 18-29 didn't vote in 2014, while that number is 17.9% for those 65+.

Keep in mind that people under age 22 could not have voted in 2014.

True, but the % of people who voted in 2014 goes down with every age cohort.  Its 52.2% for people 30-39, 37.7% for people 40-49, 27.8% for people 50-64.  So this isn't just an artifact.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump will host a rally for Kemp in Macon next Sunday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump will host a rally for Kemp in Macon next Sunday.

So Abrams is doing well and has the GOP shook. Great!

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

52% AA!?