Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Unfortunately, no county will have weekend voting this week. Friday is it for everyone statewide.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tuesday's electorate was 56% female, compared to 56% on Monday.  

Code:

Female	821969	54.6% (+0.2)
Male		646477 	42.9% (-0.3)
Unknown	38064        2.5% (0.0)

There is a lot of focus on race for obvious reasons, but the Female vs Male turnout is pretty remarkable.

Most polls generally have, (at the very most, and often less) Females making up something like 53% and Males 47% (at the least, and very often more). Anyway, so if the turnout is that much skewed towards females, it seems like a potential source of error in polls where they could be underestimating Dems.

Whereas this is a gap of more than 10 points.

BTW, in the TargetSmart GA data (which does not include this latest day, the Gender split in share of votes cast so far is 55.67% Female  and  44.31% Male. That is taking out most of the unknowns through modeling based on their names and such.

And that is an 11.36% turnout gap.

[Adam Griffin]

Unfortunately, no county will have weekend voting this week. Friday is it for everyone statewide.

Well crap then.

There is a lot of focus on race for obvious reasons, but the Female vs Male turnout is pretty remarkable.

Most polls generally have, (at the very most, and often less) Females making up something like 53% and Males 47% (at the least, and very often more). Anyway, so if the turnout is that much skewed towards females, it seems like a potential source of error in polls where they could be underestimating Dems.

Whereas this is a gap of more than 10 points.

The gender gap isn't any bigger than it was 4 years ago, but a greater share of overall voters has likely already voted. In 2014, the total vote ended up being 55-45. Right now, it's basically 56-44 when you split the unknowns and assign them - and ED voters are likely to be more male than EV voters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

BTW, the Gender gap in terms of turnout being so large seems to be pretty much unique to GA. You also do not see it in other southern states (at least not to nearly the same extent) like NC and FL. And in TN, there is actually more male turnout, over-performing the share of male registered voters. So it is probably not solely felon disenfranchisement (although that makes a difference), but seems to be especially strong of a thing in Georgia in particular, more than anywhere else.

In most states you have much more even splits, although there is generally a bit of Female over-performance.

[Adam Griffin]

BTW, the Gender gap in terms of turnout being so large seems to be pretty much unique to GA. You also do not see it in other southern states (at least not to nearly the same extent) like NC and FL. And in TN, there is actually more male turnout, over-performing the share of male registered voters. So it is probably not solely felon disenfranchisement (although that makes a difference), but seems to be especially strong of a thing in Georgia in particular, more than anywhere else.

In most states you have much more even splits, although there is generally a bit of Female over-performance.

Using which data? Exit polls?

It's worth noting that 2016 GA exit polls showed a 53/47 gap, but the actual SoS data shows 56.4/43.6. That's a pretty big difference. Among GA blacks, that figure was 63.7/36.3.

Considering not many states record this kind of data, I'd be hesitant to believe any non-official estimates of gender balance in other states. I'd be very surprised if MS and LA don't have a similar gender imbalance; other Southern states have smaller black populations and lower incarceration rates, so a less skewed gender ratio at the polls would make sense in places like NC, FL & TN.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ And yes, just to clarify: not all of the gap even among black voters is caused by felon disenfranchisement and the like. Black male turnout is just notably lower than black female turnout even among eligible voters, but a hefty portion of it is directly or indirectly caused by the former (and in some cases, a belief that they are still not allowed to vote after regaining eligibility).

One fact that is often forgotten in discussions about Georgia's population is that black voters have been over-performing in terms of representation in GA in every midterm and presidential election since 2008: among adult eligible citizens, Georgia is just a hair over 25% black. That difference is made up almost exclusively by black females carrying the additional electoral weight.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

BTW, the Gender gap in terms of turnout being so large seems to be pretty much unique to GA. You also do not see it in other southern states (at least not to nearly the same extent) like NC and FL. And in TN, there is actually more male turnout, over-performing the share of male registered voters. So it is probably not solely felon disenfranchisement (although that makes a difference), but seems to be especially strong of a thing in Georgia in particular, more than anywhere else.

In most states you have much more even splits, although there is generally a bit of Female over-performance.

Using which data? Exit polls?

Using the TargetSmart early vote data. That is voter file data on early voting from pretty much every state.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

So it should be as accurate for other states as what people put down on their voter registration forms, plus with modeling to fill in most of the unknowns. And even with that, you don't see the same gender turnout split in other states, at least not to the same extent.

[Adam Griffin]

Using the TargetSmart early vote data. That is voter file data on early voting from pretty much every state.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

So it should be as accurate for other states as what people put down on their voter registration forms, plus with modeling to fill in most of the unknowns. And even with that, you don't see the same gender turnout split in other states, at least not to the same extent.

Do all of these states record gender data? Seems silly to ask, but most of what Georgia collects can't be found universally in other states. Depending on that, I'd be skeptical of their figures, since their modeling in a lot of these races obviously isn't indicative of the actual preferences of voters.

For what it's worth, in their modeling, they also have LA at 55/45. I don't see any other states there where I feel a reasonable comparison to GA can be made along these lines (though FL is 54/46 currently), but to the extent that the gender gap is lower in other Southern states, it almost certainly has to do with black population share, lower black male turnout compared to black female turnout and/or incarceration and probation rates in general.

[Adam Griffin]

Would love to see what they would show for SC, MS & AL, but alas, none of those states are featured there.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Using the TargetSmart early vote data. That is voter file data on early voting from pretty much every state.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

So it should be as accurate for other states as what people put down on their voter registration forms, plus with modeling to fill in most of the unknowns. And even with that, you don't see the same gender turnout split in other states, at least not to the same extent.

Do all of these states record gender data? Seems silly to ask, but most of what Georgia collects can't be found universally in other states. Depending on that, I'd be skeptical of their figures, since their modeling in a lot of these races obviously isn't indicative of the actual preferences of voters.

For what it's worth, in their modeling, they also have LA at 55/45. I don't see any other states there where I feel a reasonable comparison to GA can be made along these lines (though FL is 54/46 currently), but to the extent that the gender gap is lower in other Southern states, it almost certainly has to do with black population share, lower black male turnout compared to black female turnout and/or incarceration and probation rates in general.

Recording age and gender on voter registration forms is either universal or nearly universal.

Race data is the main difference between GA and most other states, but gender is standard.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1057623835191767040

[Rookie Yinzer]

Something must be looking very good for Stacey. Oprah hasn’t endorsed anyone since Obama 2008.

[Devout Centrist]

Adam, is it possible that Abrams could improve on Carter’s % of the White vote in 2014 or is it just too rigid? Even an extra percent would help immensely.

[libertpaulian]

Something must be looking very good for Stacey. Oprah hasn’t endorsed anyone since Obama 2008.

She's jumping in pretty late in the game.  I mean, endorsing Abrams on the next to last day of early voting?!

[Cassandra]

I'm looking for a breakdown of the proposed constitutional amendments. I believe a Dem poster here (Adam?) did one a while back, if someone could help me find that I would appreciate it. Looking at the sample ballot, some of these are a bit confusing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm looking for a breakdown of the proposed constitutional amendments. I believe a Dem poster here (Adam?) did one a while back, if someone could help me find that I would appreciate it. Looking at the sample ballot, some of these are a bit confusing.

Try this: https://www.allongeorgia.com/georgia-state-politics/breakdown-the-5-constitutional-amendments-on-the-november-2018-ballot/.  It gives explanations of the amendments in plain English.

[Cassandra]

I'm looking for a breakdown of the proposed constitutional amendments. I believe a Dem poster here (Adam?) did one a while back, if someone could help me find that I would appreciate it. Looking at the sample ballot, some of these are a bit confusing.

Try this: https://www.allongeorgia.com/georgia-state-politics/breakdown-the-5-constitutional-amendments-on-the-november-2018-ballot/.  It gives explanations of the amendments in plain English.

Thank you. Based on that, I'm thinking:

1. Yes
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. Yes

For anyone who might be curious, here is an article from the same site about the two referendums on the ballot: https://www.allongeorgia.com/georgia-state-politics/breakdown-2-ballot-referendums-in-addition-to-5-constitutional-amendments/

My thoughts:

A. No
B. No

Open to hearing other people's takes, my knee-jerk reaction is to vote no to stuff I don't fully understand.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian Kemp backs out of last debate:

https://twitter.com/gwlauren/status/1057670650226229253

[libertpaulian]

Brian Kemp backs out of last debate:

https://twitter.com/gwlauren/status/1057670650226229253

Abrams should go anyway for optics purposes.  Have the camera point to her standing next to an empty chair/podium/whatever.  If they do the whole "Candidates ask each other questions" thing again, she could humorously ask "So, Mr. Kemp, what is your view on..." while talking to an empty chair, just to really rub it in that he's absent.

[OneJ]

Brian Kemp backs out of last debate:

https://twitter.com/gwlauren/status/1057670650226229253

Abrams should go anyway for optics purposes.  Have the camera point to her standing next to an empty chair/podium/whatever.  If they do the whole "Candidates ask each other questions" thing again, she could humorously ask "So, Mr. Kemp, what is your view on..." while talking to an empty chair, just to really rub it in that he's absent.

LOL! I wholeheartedly agree with this.

[Adam Griffin]

So I finally got around to mapping out the "other" percentages by county in the early vote.

[MAP] Early Voters Classified as "Other" by County, as of 10/30/18

Here's the thing: the patterns are...odd. They don't appear to inherently indicate any consistent racial or age dynamic (some are in heavily white areas, others not), but there are clear geographic clusters of them. Some of them make sense (i.e. Chattahoochee having lots of new registrants via military presence), others not so much.

I've wracked my brain considering what it could be - and also have been considering how my otherwise consistent assessment of who "others" were in past cycles might be off this time - and the closest correlation I can seemingly think of is this: patterns tend to overlap 1) where Carter performed best among white voters (that aren't collapsing in population) and 2) where Clinton made the greatest improvements among whites in 2016. It could just be pure coincidence, but the fact that there are large swathes of contiguity for both high and low "other" shares is still intriguing.

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, is it possible that Abrams could improve on Carter’s % of the White vote in 2014 or is it just too rigid? Even an extra percent would help immensely.

It's possible, but I'd say the chances of her falling below 23% are slightly greater than her hitting 24% or more. The broader problem as I've spoken about before is that GA tends to have a rural/urban performance issue depending on the cycle. In midterms, Democrats tend to improve among whites in more rural areas when compared to presidentials, and vice-versa among whites in more suburban and urban areas. Each groups tends to support Democrats by larger margins in opposite cycles, thereby never syncing up maximum performance in the same election across both groups. If they did sync up, then 25-27% white support would be achievable pretty easily.

Since this is the type of cycle where we'd usually do several points better among whites in rural areas (but could potentially do several points worse this time given obvious racial and gender bias), the fall-off could hamper that considerably. Suburban whites might be able to offset that if the bleed is minimal in rural areas - assuming they don't stab us in the back like they always do. Even with increased suburban support, if rural whites swing relatively heavily toward Kemp, I don't see it happening.


Also and as a side-note, as I talked about a few pages back, I did an assessment of where the white EV is coming from relative to its total (EV+ED) proportions and distribution for 2014, and used my Carter county white vote projections to get an idea of what the white electorate might look like if the final distribution is identical to the current EV distribution. Abrams as of my last update was exactly where Carter was (22.9%), meaning that there was - as of a few days ago - no significant relative shift in the turnout between areas where Democrats do well with whites and poorly with whites. There could be some differences in individual counties, but they essentially cancelled each other out in the grander scheme of things if there are any.

[libertpaulian]

Seriously, though, this is a majorly stupid blunder by Kemp.  Remember when Kay Hagan refused to debate Thom Tillis?  She lost by 45,000 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

And here's a map showing the current EV totals as a percentage of the total 2014 vote. This map, frankly, is not the most flattering in terms of high expectations for an Abrams win (as there is a clear correlation between higher turnout and heavily white populations):

[MAP] 10/30/18 EV As % of Total 2014 Vote



(The same map, showing which counties are ahead of or behind the state as a whole):

[libertpaulian]

And here's a map showing the current EV totals as a percentage of the total 2014 vote. This map, frankly, is not the most flattering in terms of high expectations for an Abrams win (as there is a clear correlation between higher turnout and heavily white populations):

[MAP] 10/30/18 EV As % of Total 2014 Vote



(The same map, showing which counties are ahead of or behind the state as a whole):

Is it possible AAs, Latinos, Asians, and liberal whites may turn out in the last few days as well as on Election Day?