Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

You're either trolling or clueless.  Could be both.

[Badger]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

You're either trolling or clueless. Could be both.

Both combined does seem to be beets m o nowadays

[Devout Centrist]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

Do you actually know any Youngs?

[Beet]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

Do you actually know any Youngs?

DPKDebator is in that age group, I believe. And he said something to that effect when he first joined. I've also heard the same thing from many people.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The bell tolls for the GOP (and Trump):

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035200370346287104

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035205969243004928

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035208739270402048

NBC millennial poll survey

Ouch. The Republicans should never be having a super-majority of whites disapproving of them for anything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kansas: PPP, Aug. 24-26, 877 voters

Approve 51
Disapprove 44

[OneJ]

Trump at 36-60 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

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[Brittain33]

ABC/WaPo. 36%/60%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1035482435402833922

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump at 60-36 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

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-16 to -24 is a "slight shift"?  What would they consider a large one?

Nitpick: you might want to change the wording on the link to either "36-60 approval" or "60-36 disapproval".  "60-36 approval" gives the impression that 60% approve of him.

Also, this tidbit:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1035487585299251201

[GeorgiaModerate]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

[OneJ]

Oops, I fixed it now. Good catch. But I also agree with you on the degree of the shift. I was puzzled when that was deemed as “slight.” However, I guess they call it that to account for how many months have passed since their last poll.

[Brittain33]

WaPo seems to have been one of the harder polls from Trump this year.

[KingSweden]

WaPo seems to have been one of the harder polls from Trump this year.

Indeed. Could be a leading indicator of what to expect in other polls, though.

[Sir Mohamed]

ABC/WaPo. 36%/60%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1035482435402833922

Great poll! Down with the narcissist! I wonder which of his countless embarrassments caused the drop.

[BudgieForce]

Trumps support among black respondents is 3% in the ABC poll.

[JG]

I feel this poll might be a bit of an outlier.

[ajc0918]

Many Republicans have chosen to #WalkAway from the leader of their party. Very, very bad news for the GOP.

[BudgieForce]

I feel this poll might be a bit of an outlier.

More than likely, but it counteracts Rasmussen in RCPs aggregate so I'm not to bent out of shape over it.

[twenty42]

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Trump got an impressive 70% disapproval amongst 18-29 year olds.

It's as if we have the six-year itch of a two-term Presidency in the second year. The sixth year corresponds to wave years for the opposing party -- Republicans enduring huge losses in the House and Senate in 1974 and  losing both Houses in 2006, and Democrats losing the Senate in 2014 before America became a near-single-Party dictatorship in 2016.

Maybe it is Republicans acting as if Democrats have no relevancy that rushes a Democratic wave in 2018.

Or maybe it’s a normal second-year bump for the out-of-power party, like that of Reagan, Clinton, and Obama? 😯😯😯😯😯

[Brittain33]

I feel this poll might be a bit of an outlier.

If you look at their numbers in 2018, it's almost always <40%.

[JA]

Also, this tidbit:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1035487585299251201

Now, take this piece of information and put it into the context that Trump has an enormous approval rating gap among non-college educated White voters between those who are Evangelical (enormous support) and non-Evangelical (eroding support, perhaps now in the negative even among White men). If we consider this context, then it's unsurprising his numbers (and other Republicans') are collapsing in states without a large Evangelical population. Their base, at this point, is solely White Evangelicals.

Let's delve into this just a bit with some information derived from an NBC/WSJ poll...

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If his approval rating has fallen even further among White men, then he is likely significantly underwater among non-Evangelical, non-college educated White men. His Evangelical base has shown no signs of eroding. This likely means that Trump will remain relatively stable in more Evangelical states, while the states that will see the biggest swings against him will be in ones where Evangelicals and the college-educated make up a relatively larger share of the population. That means states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maine, where Trump saw notable improvement in 2016, will swing hard against him due to their lower Evangelical populations.

[pbrower2a]

ABC/WaPo. 36%/60%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1035482435402833922

It looks like an outlier for now... but the significance of the conviction of Paul Manafort and (worse) the  plea bargain of Michael Cohen could be setting in. The President is shown to be involved with people who do very bad things on their own (Manafort) and inducing others to do illegal deeds on his behalf.

The ABC/Washington Post polling has typically been less flattering to the President than other polls, but the change from the last one is at the margin of error.  

Watch other polls for corroboration or refutation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another state that's not very interesting in terms of Trump approval:

West Virginia: WV Metro News, Aug. 16-26, 404 likely voters

Approve 60
Disapprove 33

Note: Manchin is +8 in this poll.

[pbrower2a]

Kansas: PPP, Aug. 24-26, 877 voters

Approve 51
Disapprove 44

The Democrat seems to have the advantage in the gubernatorial race.

West Virginia, Harper:

Focus is on the US Senate race, and Manchin is up 47-41.

Trump approval 63 to 36.

https://www.scribd.com/document/387422578/WV-Sen-Harper-Polling-R-for-35th-State-August-2018

Another state that's not very interesting in terms of Trump approval:

West Virginia: WV Metro News, Aug. 16-26, 404 likely voters

Approve 60
Disapprove 33

Note: Manchin is +8 in this poll.

Harper is a partisan poll. I'll go with WV Metro News.

Florida: PPP, Aug. 29-30, 743 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Not much wiggle room there for the President. Governor Rick Scott behind despite using so much money? Interesting.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Frodo]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

I'm impressed that nearly half of all Americans already support impeachment -and this is before Mueller (or rather Rosenstein) has released his final report to Congress.  

If Mueller finds evidence of conspiracy and money laundering, and Trump's clear involvement in those crimes, imagine where the numbers will be then...