Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[CookieDamage]

Can a mod please create a special thread for hofoid like they did with l*mol*beral and just herd all his troll posts over there?

[KingSweden]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Quite stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard/Harris, Aug. 22-23, 1330 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disaprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

It always bothers me a bit that this poll never has any undecideds.

[KingSweden]

Harvard/Harris, Aug. 22-23, 1330 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disaprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

It always bothers me a bit that this poll never has any undecideds.

Strong approve and approve moving opposite is interesting though probably just MOE fluctuation

[Torie]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Good to see numbers before the inevitable  NAFTA bump coming up. The Midwest will revert to 2016 levels from that victory.

I don't think the purpose of this thread is to predict how the numbers will change based on some current event. And by doing that, we get off topic and start arguing about what future numbers will be.
Heck we could get into pages of speculation because when it comes to Trump, there are just a veritable motherload of events that pertain to him (and if he is not in the news, he gets in the news by issuing another twitter message). So yeah, please take that somewhere else (you know, like to a board I don't moderate or something). Some might argue that the words "inevitable bump" are an example of extreme hyperbole, but no need to go there now.

[pbrower2a]

Harvard/Harris, Aug. 22-23, 1330 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disaprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

It always bothers me a bit that this poll never has any undecideds.

Strong approve and approve moving opposite is interesting though probably just MOE fluctuation

If it is more than coincidence, then it will appear over time.

For a politician in collapse, "strong approval" probably morphs in turn to "slight approval", "undecided", squishy approval", and in turn :strong disapproval:.  Few people make abrupt turns from fanatical support to fanatical rejection of a politician except in the wake of the most drastic events. Connecting the President to a murder (which I cannot see happening) or finding that he had solicited or accepted a bribe would be such. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker. 

Among adults:

Approve 44 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)


Some additional questions:

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

[BlueSwan]

Hold up, only 2/3 of the american population believe that the payment of the two women was at the order of Trump? That's new levels of delusional. I mean, I certainly understand that Cohen does not have a lot of credibility, but OF COURSE Trump ordered him. The idea that a lawyer would just pay loads of money to people making such claims without the consent of the guy he is representing is downright ridiculous. I mean Trump has even claimed now that they were paid with Trumps own money....c'mon sheeple.

[Sorenroy]

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker. 

[...]

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

According to the link provided, 10% of those who approve of Trump believe that his campaign colluded with Russia, 34% believe Trump directed Cohen to make the illegal payments, and 6% believe that Trump should be impeached. While you can still approve of the job someone is doing while also thinking their actions are illegal, it is interesting that over 1/3 of Trump supporters believe that he is, in fact, directing his subordinates to engage in illegal activities.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Suffolk, Aug. 18-24, 500 likely voters

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

Evers+2, Baldwin+8 in this poll.

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker. 

[...]

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

According to the link provided, 10% of those who approve of Trump believe that his campaign colluded with Russia, 34% believe Trump directed Cohen to make the illegal payments, and 6% believe that Trump should be impeached. While you can still approve of the job someone is doing while also thinking their actions are illegal, it is interesting that over 1/3 of Trump supporters believe that he is, in fact, directing his subordinates to engage in illegal activities.

One of the fundamental rules of life is that the world  largely breaks down into two groups of people: criminals and non-criminals. I'm not going to subdivide the two between criminals who get away with what they do and those who don't or between people who never commit of a crime who are never convicted and the wrongfully convicted. But let's ignore those who get away with crimes (if they do the same or similar deed enough times they will be caught) and the wrongfully convicted  for this simple exercise.

If one is convicted of a crime, then practically all else becomes irrelevant. One's skills, hobbies, life experiences, sports loyalties, tastes, and vocational attainments no longer matter. For American non-offenders, people who have been overseas and those who have not, those who have college degrees and do not, people who are disabled and those who are generally clear categories.  Criminals are treated rightly as pariahs. We are free to do many things, but not to commit crime.

Colluding with a foreign power to influence an election is a very serious offense. People like Bierut, Gottwald, Rakosi, Groza, and Dimitrov who collaborated with the Soviet Union to install Communist governments that they led are now recognized in their countries as traitors. OK, Putin is not Stalin, but still, the Trump Presidency is more despotic or dictatorial than any earlier Presidency even without the pretext of wartime necessity.

If payments are illegal, then ordering their disbursement is illegal. It is a crime no matter who does it.

People who can excuse either may have the idea that if the President does a criminal act, then such is excused. It is not. The leaders that we elect represent us; they do not rule us. Those who can approve of the President yet acknowledge that he has done serious offenses effectively approve of dictatorship or despotism. 

[Ebsy]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

[Hammy]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

They're just really bouncy (despite using a 5-day rolling average).  For example, their GCB went from D+2 to D+12 this week.

[KingSweden]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

Nah they’re just kinda nonsensical

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thanks to Ipsos, the 538 averages for Trump approval and GCB are both at recent (3+ month) highs for the Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

This might reflect the Man O' Fraud verdict  and the plea bargain of Michael Cohen. The change in the approval rating is huge, indeed outside the margin of error. The change in the level of disapproval is still within the margin of error.  

[pbrower2a]

I am surprised that there aren't more polls available this morning...

Connecticut, Gravis: 

approve 38, disapprove 58

32% approval rate among African-Americans? Fishy. There will be other polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Connecticut_(August_28_2018).pdf

Nevada: PPP, Aug. 20-21, 529 registered voters

Approve: 43
Disapprove: 53

Wisconsin: Suffolk, Aug. 18-24, 500 likely voters

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

Evers+2, Baldwin+8 in this poll.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am surprised that there aren't more polls available this morning...

Not one of the more interesting states for Trump approval, but...

Connecticut: Gravis, Aug. 21-27, 606 likely voters

Approve 38 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 49)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Aug. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1249 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 45 (+1), R 39 (+1)

[KingSweden]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

[Ebsy]

Here's the polling memo:

https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_29_2018_marginals.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

For comparison, the last USA Today/Suffolk poll (June) was 43/51.

[KingSweden]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

For comparison, the last USA Today/Suffolk poll (June) was 43/51.

So from -8 to -16

[GeorgiaModerate]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

For comparison, the last USA Today/Suffolk poll (June) was 43/51.

So from -8 to -16

Yeah.  One thing to keep in mind, though, is that the previous poll was in the midst of Trump's brief North Korea bump.