The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Politician]

Ian Conyers will win.

[Politician]

You forgot one thing, David Ige won’t be the Dem nominee in Hawaii. Colleen Hanabusa is the presumptive nominee.

[Politician]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.

About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

[Politician]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.

About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

Hardly anybody thought Hogan would win in 2014. Somehow I doubt if you were here then you would've been one of the very few to predict he would.

Hogan was only barely behind in the polls, he certainly could have won that race. Of course, in 2014, Otter could also have lost Idaho based on polls...

[Politician]

I’m surprised by Calley’s performance here, stronger than I expected. It’s gettin very close to the primary to be down 15 though.

I’m doubly surprised at how terrible a campaign Whitmer has run. She’s a totally uninspiring figure and public speaker from what I hear (this is completely anecdotal and may or may not reflect reality though - I’ve never personally heard her speak or campaign). I honestly am starting to doubt that she would even be the strongest candidate - idk if having two white liberal women who appeal to exactly the same constituencies in Ann Arvor and Oakland is a great idea. With Schuette likely to do well out state and John James proving surprisingly enigmatic, there has to be concerns about turning out Detroit in both the Governor and even the Senate race at this point.

It would be better if Dems had a strong minority candidate for governor to balance Stabenaw’s suburban Detroit appeal. Idk if Thanedar is really the best candidate to do that though - why do people here not like him? Is he too far left, or does he have serious controversies I’m not aware of?

Honestly think Michigan Governor is tilt R right now, with this uncertainty in the Dem primary. Could easily end up strong the other way of course, but the lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates is pretty startling (and that even includes Stabenaw in the senate race tbh, though I expect her to outperform the gubernatorial candidate by at least 5 due to a stronger performance in the UP and Grand Rapids - I just don’t think she’s in a position to drag a weak governor candidate across the finish line).

[Politician]

It's pretty obvious King Lear either has no idea what he is talking about and/or is trying to bait people into responding to nonsense.

King Lear might have been prone to concern trolling nonsense in the past, but the Penn. GOP (including Toomey) have all called for impeachment proceedings. It's happening, and the map will be invalidated. The best thing for the Dems to do now is to take the sore losering and turn it into success in the ballot this fall.

[Politician]

Saccone by 15+, maybe even breaking 20.

[Politician]

I think Brown will win Ohio

You think Brown will win Ohio?!?  I'm sorry to break this to you, but that won't be happening.  The only Dem who has even a remote chance of winning is Paul Hackett, and even then, it's a slim chance.

[Politician]

If it opens up in 2020 or 2022, then maybe (it would likely be a "last hoorah" and flip by 2026 or 2028), but trust me, an Iowa zoom to the right is something that was a long time coming, and for a while I just knew it would happen sooner or later. Sorry Democrats, Iowa is gone (or will be realyl soon) and within 10 years it'll be Likely R (and closer to safe), and about R+10, with IA-04 being the most conservative district, and IA-02 and -03 being the least.

[Politician]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

[Politician]

I honestly think Van Drew might lose his primary. That's not concern trolling.

[Politician]

Face it, Sherrod Brown needs to figure out what his next career move is come January 3rd 2019 because he will be out of a job by then.

[Politician]

I say yes if he has great debate performances. The guy is a rising star and MI polls are notoriously bad the last few cycles.  Dems have to be up +5 in the polls for me to actually think they are leading and the latest poll has Debbie +9 with the two debates next week. Also he could do better than expected among African Americans.

[Politician]

I'm making one prediction. 

IL will be Tilt R once Pritzker wins the nom.

[Politician]

West Virginia: Tossup (considering Rahall got crushed but Justice is winning by double-digits, who the hell knows)

Justice will lose.

[Politician]

*snip*

The OK post was a joke lol, and I was actually right on IA04, King greatly underperformed and only won by 3 when you predicted he would win by 20.

[Politician]

LOL, RIP libertpaulian and Politician! Turns out Granite Staters will choose the White woman with the (D) next to her name over the male member of the hate group (R). Who would have thought? NH elections are so predictable.

Yeah, and Sununu isn’t winning New Hampshire males by 23 points. Stick a fork in him, he’s done.

[Politician]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

[Politician]

lmao if Handel survived Jon Ossof, his multimillion dollar campaign, and low GOP turnout due to it being a special election, she'll survive Lucy McBath - especially given the fact that GOP turnout will inherently be higher due to it being a general election date

[Politician]

You'll be calling Mr. Hugin Senator Hugin this January

[Politician]

I voted no. The republicans will narrowly hold on to the house by around 5-10 seats. You'll all look foolish after the election. Mark my words.

[Politician]

Worst case scenario for Cruz is winning +6. Hold me to it.

[Politician]

Arizona: McSally - 52% | Sinema - 48%
California: Feinstein - 65% | de Leon - 35%
Connecticut: Murphy - 65% | Corey - 35%
Delaware: Carper - 65% | Arlett - 35%
Florida: Scott - 52% | Nelson - 48%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Braun - 53% | Donnelly - 47%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 65% | Campbell - 29%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 46%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 58% | Newberger - 42%
Minnesota (2): Housley 50% | Smith - 50%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 50% | Espy - 30% | McDaniel - 18%
Missouri: Hawley - 55% | McCaskill 45%
Montana:  Rosendale - 52% | Tester 47%
Nebraska: Fischer - 62% | Raybould - 38%
Nevada: Heller - 54% | Rosen - 46%
New Jersey: Menendez - 49% | Hugin - 48%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 48% | Rich - 40% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 69% | Farley - 31%
North Dakota: Cramer - 62% | Heitkamp - 38%
Ohio: Brown - 52% | Renacci - 48%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 53% | Barletta - 47%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 67% | Flanders - 32%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 58% | Bredesen - 42%
Texas: Cruz - 60% | O'Rourke - 40%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 53% | Stewart - 46%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 48% | Morrisey - 47%
Wisconsin: Vukmir 48% | Baldwin 48%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 70% | Trauner - 28%

[Politician]

Oof...

When McSally wins by five in the most predictable case of Atlas jumping the gun on a red state turning purple ever, feel free to quote this post.

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

[Politician]

Also, January is over now, and Cochran is still in the Senate, so apparently the idea of him resigning was fake news. So I removed the tentative rating for MS-Special.