MI-13: Electoral Mess in Detroit

[Jeppe]

With 2 months remaining until the primary, Detroit Cty Council President Brenda Jones seems to have locked up the race to replace long-time incumbent John Conyers. She’s received endorsements from Mayor Mike Duggan, Wayne County executive Warren Evans, neighbouring Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence, Judge Mathis (lol), United Auto Workers, Michigan AFL-CIO, and tons more.

If Jones is elected, Detroit’s two majority-black congressional districts will be represented by two women named Brenda, Brenda Jones and Brenda Lawrence!

[Arkansas Yankee]

Nice to hope the District will not become a family fiefdom. But will the average voters follow the leaders or the family?

I grew up on the east side of Detroit in what was then and is now District 14.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Um, what about Rashida Tlaib?

[Bman409]

So anyone have an update on this race? It seems to me that Jones has all the political machinery behind her.

Tlaib hasn't won a race since 2012 and she lost a primary for State Senate in 2014

Why are people thinking that she might win here? The money?

I think Jones wins.. with Wild in second.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ian Conyers will win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ian Conyers will win.

Care to explain why? You think the relative of a sex offender is going to beat a well-oiled campaign being ran by a black woman in the Year of the Woman?

[Jeppe]

Ian Conyers will win.

Care to explain why? You think the relative of a sex offender is going to beat a well-oiled campaign being ran by a black woman in the Year of the Woman?

Jones has all of the support you can get in Detroit. The very popular mayor, most of the city council, United Auto Workers, AFL-CIO, a bunch of smaller labour unions, the city’s other congresswoman, but people still think the nephew of the incumbent congressman is going to win “just cause”.

[Zaybay]

Um, what about Rashida Tlaib?

Yeah, what about her? I think she might actually be the front runner. She has the funding, and has made some headlines. Endorsements are nice, but they are not the most influential. Money, however, is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ian Conyers will win.

Care to explain why? You think the relative of a sex offender is going to beat a well-oiled campaign being ran by a black woman in the Year of the Woman?

name rec

[Atlas Force]

Ian Conyers will win.

Care to explain why? You think the relative of a sex offender is going to beat a well-oiled campaign being ran by a black woman in the Year of the Woman?

name rec

The name rec is for a guy who's related to the incumbent who resigned because of sexual harassment allegations, so...

[Zaybay]

A poll was done for this primary, and while Brenda is in the lead, she is definitely not the favorite.

MI-13 Dem primary (Target Insyght for MIRS):

Brenda Jones 21
William Wild 20
Rashida Tlaib 19
Coleman Young 14
Ian Conyers 8
Shanelle Jackson 4

Undecided 14

https://www.scribd.com/document/384312798/MI-13-Target-Insyght-for-MIRS-July-2018

(Acquired from ON Progressive on the GB thread)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ian Conyers will win.

Care to explain why? You think the relative of a sex offender is going to beat a well-oiled campaign being ran by a black woman in the Year of the Woman?

name rec

Good logic there. Name recognition will propel  Conyers to victory, the only way he can be defeated is if Kwame Kilpatrick's son enters the race.

[Bman409]

A poll was done for this primary, and while Brenda is in the lead, she is definitely not the favorite.

MI-13 Dem primary (Target Insyght for MIRS):

Brenda Jones 21
William Wild 20
Rashida Tlaib 19
Coleman Young 14
Ian Conyers 8
Shanelle Jackson 4

Undecided 14


(Acquired from ON Progressive on the GB thread)

That poll seems to oversample white voters though.. they're like 39% of the poll, but 33% the District... it undersamples African Americans... who are 48% of the poll, but 56% of the district

seems to slightly oversample women too.. 58% of the respondents were women.. i'm guessing the electorate is more like 48-52 men to women.

[Bman409]

Um, what about Rashida Tlaib?

Yeah, what about her? I think she might actually be the front runner. She has the funding, and has made some headlines. Endorsements are nice, but they are not the most influential. Money, however, is.

I don't see a Muslim white woman winning this heavily African American district


but you never know

Bill Wild (old white guy) might actually win it.

[OneJ]

Well black voters have voted for non-black candidates before even if there were black candidates on the ballot, but Jones being the slight favorite in this race looks like a pretty reasonable guess in my opinion.

I don't see much of a difference between Tlaib and Jones, FWIW. Both want to protect social security, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, tuition or debt-free college, and support Medicare/Single Payer-for-All system. The only real difference is one is a Justice Democrat and one has the backing of the Detroit establishment.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I don't see much of a difference between Tlaib and Jones, FWIW. Both want to protect social security, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, tuition or debt-free college, and support Medicare/Single Payer-for-All system. The only real difference is one is a Justice Democrat and one has the backing of the Detroit establishment.

That's a bigger difference than people think it is. It's not just about the policies candidates support, it's also about who they're beholden to.

[Jeppe]

I’m fine with either Jones or Tlaib. But Tlaib might face a messy primary challenge in 2020 if she sneaks by this year, so, I’m sort of inclined to support Jones. You never know what kind of idiot will show up in 2020, i.e. one of the Conyers brothers.

[Rhenna]

What about Wild, is he good? Seems to be up at the top with Tlaib and Jones.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'd vote for Tlaib cuz she's muslim.

[MAINEiac4434]

Uncritical support for comrade Tlaib in the face of Conyers family, that one white guy running, and this Brenda Jones individual's imperialism.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Tlaib endorsed by Detroit Free Press.

https://on.freep.com/2NT3GAO

[Zaybay]

It's odd how Tlaib isn't getting more attention on the Rose-sphere; she's to the left of Ocasio and has a much higher chance of victory than Ing.

Because "muh AA voters" and "muh scry muslim" and "muh Conyers loyalty".

Based off polling and attention, its ethier Brenda or Tlaib, and Conyers is splitting the vote with Brenda. A Tlaib victory is rather possible, around 40% in my head.

But it seems the Atlas mob thinks its unlikely, just like OC winning, and Newman, and a close race for GA R gov, and.......

[Bman409]

Jones 24
Tlaib 21
Wild 17
Young 9
Conyers 6
Jackson 4

(I would include a link but this website says I have not posted enough to allow me to include a link... so, you can google it)

"Asking undecided voters a second time to choose changed the outcome slightly, with Jones moving to 26 percent support, Tlaib at 22 percent and Wild at 20 percent. The others were all in single digits and 11 percent still declined to select a candidate."

It's Jones.. and it should be. Black district deserves a black representative in my humble opinion.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's odd how Tlaib isn't getting more attention on the Rose-sphere; she's to the left of Ocasio and has a much higher chance of victory than Ing.

Because "muh AA voters" and "muh scry muslim" and "muh Conyers loyalty".

Based off polling and attention, its ethier Brenda or Tlaib, and Conyers is splitting the vote with Brenda. A Tlaib victory is rather possible, around 40% in my head.

But it seems the Atlas mob thinks its unlikely, just like OC winning, and Newman, and a close race for GA R gov, and.......

Something like 95% of Atlas Democrats (myself included FTR) wanted Newman to win and many thought she would; as for this race, Tlaib is polling in third and got hit with a scandal in July IIRC.  Jones probably wins at this point although Wild or Tlaib could pull off an upset (with Wild being more likely to do so).

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's odd how Tlaib isn't getting more attention on the Rose-sphere; she's to the left of Ocasio and has a much higher chance of victory than Ing.

Because "muh AA voters" and "muh scry muslim" and "muh Conyers loyalty".

Based off polling and attention, its ethier Brenda or Tlaib, and Conyers is splitting the vote with Brenda. A Tlaib victory is rather possible, around 40% in my head.

But it seems the Atlas mob thinks its unlikely, just like OC winning, and Newman, and a close race for GA R gov, and.......

Something like 95% of Atlas Democrats (myself included FTR) wanted Newman to win and many thought she would; as for this race, Tlaib is polling in third and got hit with a scandal in July IIRC.  Jones probably wins at this point although Wild or Tlaib could pull off an upset (with Wild being more likely to do so).

Tlaib is two points behind first place in a race with 14% of voters undecided. This race isn't over yet.