The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[IceSpear]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.

[IceSpear]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Thanks for posting directly in the cellar. He could easily still lose big.

About that...

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

Hardly anybody thought Hogan would win in 2014. Somehow I doubt if you were here then you would've been one of the very few to predict he would.

[IceSpear]

If the WFP wants to keep their ballot line and Nixon wants off, maybe they should look at other candidates to replace her. I suspect that Julia Salazar will be free after tonight.

[IceSpear]

I was unable to watch it on Election night because the TVs were muted at the party. I just watched it and all I have to say is that what you did to this man and his family will never be forgotten. I am not going to go insane on anyone; I just wanted to voice my serious disgust for what has happened to them. To put it nicely, Republicans will see to it that Bob Casey never enjoys another electoral victory for himself in a General election. This will never be forgotten.

LUL, moron, sad!

These ones were pretty funny too in retrospect:

It is too bad that a decent guy like Santorum loses but a complete Douchebag like Corker wins.

As for me... if I decide to stay in PA, I am through with politics. With the victory margins yesterday there is no hope for political alternatives.

[IceSpear]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279087.0

This entire thread is basically nothing but "Phil Bredesen is DOA"

Not sure whether to induct this here or in the irony oremine.

[IceSpear]

Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson has won the race to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Of course, he'll need to dispense with the token opposition first.

[IceSpear]

I can't wait for the Atlas hot takes when she [Heitkamp] wins lol.

[IceSpear]

In the “what race do we have all wrong” thread, I said Nevada.

In the thread about the wave turning into a ripple I was called a joke for calling this Lean R.

I’ll say it again. Nevada is going to the Republicans.

This thread will be filled with posts about NV-Sen sooner rather than later lmao.

I have a lot of bookmarked NV-Sen stupidity to feed into the cellar in a few days.

[IceSpear]

No need to wait for election day for this one.

Arizona: McSally - 52% | Sinema - 48%
California: Feinstein - 65% | de Leon - 35%
Connecticut: Murphy - 65% | Corey - 35%
Delaware: Carper - 65% | Arlett - 35%
Florida: Scott - 52% | Nelson - 48%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Braun - 53% | Donnelly - 47%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 65% | Campbell - 29%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 46%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 58% | Newberger - 42%
Minnesota (2): Housley 50% | Smith - 50%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 50% | Espy - 30% | McDaniel - 18%
Missouri: Hawley - 55% | McCaskill 45%
Montana:  Rosendale - 52% | Tester 47%
Nebraska: Fischer - 62% | Raybould - 38%
Nevada: Heller - 54% | Rosen - 46%
New Jersey: Menendez - 49% | Hugin - 48%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 48% | Rich - 40% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 69% | Farley - 31%
North Dakota: Cramer - 62% | Heitkamp - 38%
Ohio: Brown - 52% | Renacci - 48%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 53% | Barletta - 47%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 67% | Flanders - 32%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 58% | Bredesen - 42%
Texas: Cruz - 60% | O'Rourke - 40%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 53% | Stewart - 46%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 48% | Morrisey - 47%
Wisconsin: Vukmir 48% | Baldwin 48%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 70% | Trauner - 28%

[IceSpear]

The polls are looking really strong for Democrats so far tonight.  Small leads for Allred and McBath are holding, Delgado has rapidly pulled ahead of Faso, and the large early leads for Brat, Barr, and Tenney have all been cut to 3 points are less.  Dems are closing strong!

Sorry, that won't last. Handel and Sessions will be leading by decent margins once the polls are finished.

We'll be getting many more posts from him, as well as the other R cheerleaders on the Congressional board.

Don't bother, he clearly just wants the attention.

[IceSpear]

On Tennessee:

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

On Nevada:

Anyway, Heller won't win by 7, but this is a tossup that both sides have a decent chance of winning. LOL at IceSpear though.

On IA-04:

Steve King only up one point.

I want to believe!

IceSpear and Mizzoulian told me that all Republicans in IA-04 are evil, racist Steve King-loving deplorables, though!

On Tennessee/Florida:

But IceSpear told me Scott and Bredesen couldn't win at the same time!

On Alaska:

But IceSpear told me this race was Safe R!

On Oklahoma:

Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson has won the race to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Of course, he'll need to dispense with the token opposition first.

On WI-01, from Politician (thread is locked):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically everything I predicted was spot on, LMAO. Very bad night for my friend Politician. Maybe it wasn't the brightest idea to mock all my predictions?

[IceSpear]

*snip*

The OK post was a joke lol, and I was actually right on IA04, King greatly underperformed and only won by 3 when you predicted he would win by 20.

Huh? I never said he'd win by 20. Granted, I did expect him to win by more than he actually did.

[IceSpear]

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.

[IceSpear]

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

I never said Morrisey would 100% win though. In fact I rated it as a toss up and said right before the election I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or a Morrisey plurality (to which Atlas laughed at me and called me a troll because clearly I was delusional and this was a safe D race that Manchin would easily win by double digits.)

Unless you meant my posts from a year ago before Doug Jones won when I called it safe R and said Manchin was DOA. I'll give you that one.

[IceSpear]

Some gems from the election thread:

Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.

OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!!

Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R?

[IceSpear]

Ben Kenobi truly is something special. I'm pretty sure even most of the #redwave hacks on Twitter didn't think the Republicans would actually gain House seats, lol.

[IceSpear]

https://www.electionprojection.com/governor-elections.php

IceSpear will be very butthurt about this map. "How dare Oklahoma go D while Oregon and Nevada are R! Muh "all polling before October is trash"! Muh racist hicks!"

[IceSpear]

Donna Shalala should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

[IceSpear]

Oklahoma is the new Alabunga, and this sad excuse for a meme will end the same way.

[IceSpear]

This entire thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299336.0

[IceSpear]

On WI-01:

Lean D

[IceSpear]

Barbara Comstock, Pearl Kim (great Republican candidate in the new Delaware county district in Pennsylvania), Erik Paulsen, Matt Chrin, Mimi Walters, Young Kim, Rocky Chavez, Dino Rossi, Kevin Yoder, Rod Blum, and I guess Paul Davis and Anthony Brindisi.

Most overrated: Jennifer Wexton, Mikie Sherrill, Jeff Van Drew, Donna Shalala.

LMAO. Literally a 100% track record of being wrong if Brindisi and Kim lose. That's actually very impressive.

[IceSpear]

More from that thread:

Randy Bryce is underrated.

Comstock's race is Lean R right now. Trump popularity rising in NOVA compared to Nov 2017 - Northam would not have won Loudoun by 20 points if the election were held today.

[IceSpear]

Rossi likely benefits from a 'Karen Handel effect' in November, so a strong D candidate was key to checking that.

Strong Lean R, Rossi wins 53-47.

[IceSpear]

All on WI-01, which the Republican just won by 13 points (doing worse than Hillary did!) in a D+9 environment:

Lean D

Tilt R for now. LOL at the people who said Bryce's DUI would cause him to lose a landslide.

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

There is no way to tell who is gonna win this race.

Screnock won WI-01, Walker will certainly win it, and even Vukmir might win it. Give that, it seems very unlikely that a deeply flawed Democrat like Bryce could carry it against a Paul Ryan clone. Especially since Ryan is somehow not unpopular in Wisconsin as a whole (last poll I saw had him with an evenly split approval rating), which I'd assume means he's on fairly solid ground in his home district.

Vukmir will definitely lose it. Randy Bryce is not a flawed candidate. Democrats just outvoted Republicans in the primary.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

Gee, what does that remind me of?