The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Lord Admirale]

You'll be calling Mr. Hugin Senator Hugin this January

How is this aged? This is a great photoshop.

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302731.0

[IceSpear]

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.

[Politician]

I voted no. The republicans will narrowly hold on to the house by around 5-10 seats. You'll all look foolish after the election. Mark my words.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On Tennessee:

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

On Nevada:

Anyway, Heller won't win by 7, but this is a tossup that both sides have a decent chance of winning. LOL at IceSpear though.

On IA-04:

Steve King only up one point.

I want to believe!

IceSpear and Mizzoulian told me that all Republicans in IA-04 are evil, racist Steve King-loving deplorables, though!

On Tennessee/Florida:

But IceSpear told me Scott and Bredesen couldn't win at the same time!

On Alaska:

But IceSpear told me this race was Safe R!

On Oklahoma:

Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson has won the race to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Of course, he'll need to dispense with the token opposition first.

On WI-01, from Politician (thread is locked):

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Basically everything I predicted was spot on, LMAO. Very bad night for my friend Politician. Maybe it wasn't the brightest idea to mock all my predictions?

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tester is doomed. This is what you get for betraying your constituents.

Haha

[IceSpear]

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

I never said Morrisey would 100% win though. In fact I rated it as a toss up and said right before the election I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or a Morrisey plurality (to which Atlas laughed at me and called me a troll because clearly I was delusional and this was a safe D race that Manchin would easily win by double digits.)

Unless you meant my posts from a year ago before Doug Jones won when I called it safe R and said Manchin was DOA. I'll give you that one.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

Well clearly they didn’t matter. Enough white trash rallied to get White Nationalist Steve re-elected.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A lot of 2016 board posts operate under the assumption that every working class white is a raging racist, and most that vote for Democrats do so only because they don't believe the Republicans are racist enough, and are just waiting for the most blatantly racist candidate since after the civil rights era* to finally jump over to the Republicans, and there's no way any white that doesn't have a college degree can't be disgusted by racism and juvenile sexist rhetoric. As someone pointed out if you follow this logic then the best way for the Republicans to max out their white support is to become an out and out neo-Nazi party.

Post-2016 election it’s a hilarious post to read
Post-2018 election it’s still a hilarious post to read

[Yellowhammer]

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.

The only tossups this year are TN, TX, and ND

The rest....at least under this environment...are a foregone conclusion.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

People are really underestimating Democrats chance at flipping the senate.

The only tossups this year are TN, TX, and ND

The rest....at least under this environment...are a foregone conclusion.

How is this man still so confident after being so damn wrong??

[Politician]

Worst case scenario for Cruz is winning +6. Hold me to it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Well, there you go. A excellent pollster goes to MO, and they find a result much more different than the crappy R pollsters. What a surprise.

“All the polls I don’t like are bad. The one poll I do like is good” . jpeg

[IceSpear]

Some gems from the election thread:

Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.

OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!!

Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senator Patrick Morrisey would like a word.  Also Steve King only won by 3%, clearly a lot of Republicans voted against him.

I never said Morrisey would 100% win though. In fact I rated it as a toss up and said right before the election I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or a Morrisey plurality (to which Atlas laughed at me and called me a troll because clearly I was delusional and this was a safe D race that Manchin would easily win by double digits.)

Unless you meant my posts from a year ago before Doug Jones won when I called it safe R and said Manchin was DOA. I'll give you that one.

Don't get me wrong, I thought we were looking at +50 in the House, so my predictions weren't exactly perfect

[Comrade Funk]

Some gems from the election thread:

Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.

OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!!

Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R?

You could post all of MillennialModerate's posts from the last month.

[Comrade Funk]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

Cavasso lost 73-23

[Politician]

Arizona: McSally - 52% | Sinema - 48%
California: Feinstein - 65% | de Leon - 35%
Connecticut: Murphy - 65% | Corey - 35%
Delaware: Carper - 65% | Arlett - 35%
Florida: Scott - 52% | Nelson - 48%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Braun - 53% | Donnelly - 47%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 65% | Campbell - 29%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 46%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 58% | Newberger - 42%
Minnesota (2): Housley 50% | Smith - 50%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 50% | Espy - 30% | McDaniel - 18%
Missouri: Hawley - 55% | McCaskill 45%
Montana:  Rosendale - 52% | Tester 47%
Nebraska: Fischer - 62% | Raybould - 38%
Nevada: Heller - 54% | Rosen - 46%
New Jersey: Menendez - 49% | Hugin - 48%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 48% | Rich - 40% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 69% | Farley - 31%
North Dakota: Cramer - 62% | Heitkamp - 38%
Ohio: Brown - 52% | Renacci - 48%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 53% | Barletta - 47%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 67% | Flanders - 32%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 58% | Bredesen - 42%
Texas: Cruz - 60% | O'Rourke - 40%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 53% | Stewart - 46%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 48% | Morrisey - 47%
Wisconsin: Vukmir 48% | Baldwin 48%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 70% | Trauner - 28%

[ltomlinson31]

On how many House seats Dems would gain:

Might as well be the contrarian. -4.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not impossible, nor unlikely. Last time we were in a similar situation with Bush, the Rs picked up a few seats in the midterms. Right now RCP has the race as essentially tied.

Remember, this isn't a presidential election year and Rs tend to do better in the midterms.

If the Senate is going to have R pickups then we're likely to see a similar situation in the House.

I've seen polls showing they are even in the generic ballot which means that Rs will net a bunch of seats.

[IceSpear]

Ben Kenobi truly is something special. I'm pretty sure even most of the #redwave hacks on Twitter didn't think the Republicans would actually gain House seats, lol.

[Atlas Force]

Re: SC-01

It's an extreme longshot either way, but Republicans are probably better off without Sanford and all his baggage.

Almost certainly not

No. Likely R.

Nah, the type of suburbs that make up SC-01 are very Trumpy.

Honestly, Arrington probably makes this race safer than it was before.

Does Joe Cunningham have any appeal whatsoever to pick up disaffected Sanford voters?  He's noted as a lawyer and yoga studio owner--I don't think that weighs in his favor in this district.  But if he can reach out to the other side, he could probably get into the mid-40s.

He's in favor of lowering the Medicare eligibility age, believes in climate change, supports abortion rights, anti-LBTQ discrimination legislation and is pro-gun control.

While he's a candidate I would vote for, that's not a recipe for a victory in this district, let alone getting to 40%.

If the DCCC knew that Sanford was going to be in danger, they should have tried to recruit a stronger candidate (maybe, Leonidas Stavrinakis?)

[Technocracy Timmy]

Inb4 the “white working class is economically left wing”  hottakes.

Hottake thats true.

[Xing]

I could put dozens of NV posts here, but this one's stronger than roquefort:

It looks like Heller is really breaking out now. At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

[Comrade Funk]

I could put dozens of NV posts here, but this one's stronger than roquefort:

It looks like Heller is really breaking out now. At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

I'd also add this from that thread:

Yeah, this is going Republican.

Which I’ve said since early September and was laughed at.

We're still laughing at all of MM's failed bedwetting predictions.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema would get smacked. At this time, Arizona won't elect a LGBT person on a state level. If you come back to me in ten years, I might say meh, just because of the rising hispanic population that will eventually swing the state blue. The best chance we got to actually give Jeff Flake a run for his money is Gabby Gifford's husband.

Omg haha.