California House Races Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harley in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.

Who's that Harley who ran in CA-49?

[Jeppe]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harley in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.

Who's that Harley who ran in CA-49?

Auto-correct, supposed to say Harkey. As in Diane Harkey.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harkey in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.

But they are like the only ones that had Levin winning the primary

[Jeppe]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harkey in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.

But they are like the only ones that had Levin winning the primary

Yes, but Harkey finished comfortably ahead of Levin. They had Levin ahead, which made it technically the least inaccurate poll (despite showing Levin in the top-two).

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harkey in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.

But they are like the only ones that had Levin winning the primary

And they didn't have him ahead of Harkey "comfortably". It was 2 points.

[Coastal Elitist]

Internal poll by the Fareed campaign for CA-24 shows Carbajal only 1 point ahead of Fareed at 47%-46%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384680493/CA-24-Olive-Tree-Strategies-R-for-Justin-Fareed-July-2018

[Bidenworth2020]

Internal poll by the Fareed campaign for CA-24 shows Carbajal only 1 point ahead of Fareed at 47%-46%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384680493/CA-24-Olive-Tree-Strategies-R-for-Justin-Fareed-July-2018

dubious. i mean, carbajal won by 6 in a more neutral environment

[Ebsy]

Never heard of "Olive Tree Strategies."

[IceSpear]

Any internal poll should be viewed with a lot of skepticism. Any internal poll showing massively different numbers than the jungle primary results should be viewed with even more skepticism. This applies to both of the junk polls posted on the previous page.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any internal poll should be viewed with a lot of skepticism. Any internal poll showing massively different numbers than the jungle primary results should be viewed with even more skepticism. This applies to both of the junk polls posted on the previous page.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why exactly is there some weird fantasy that Carbajal is vulnerable this year? Is he just a really bad candidate or something?

[IceSpear]

Why exactly is there some weird fantasy that Carbajal is vulnerable this year? Is he just a really bad candidate or something?

These are the same pundits that thought WA-03 was safe R. They're just very bad at their job.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why exactly is there some weird fantasy that Carbajal is vulnerable this year? Is he just a really bad candidate or something?

These are the same pundits that thought WA-03 was safe R. They're just very bad at their job.

To be fair, I can see how someone could make the WA-03 mistake, especially before Long's fundraising started really picking up.  Saying Carbajal is vulnerable is more like how some pundits keep insisting that Matthew Cartwright's is Lean D/Tilt D or kept trying to pretend that Esty's open seat was a tossup after she announced she wouldn't run for reelection. 

[Gass3268]

Trump just gave Mike Levin an ad:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1031719084680007680[tweet]

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

[libertpaulian]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

[mencken]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Why the confidence in CA-10 and CA-25? Do you think they will benefit from low Hispanic turnout?

[GeorgiaModerate]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

Nunes has been my choice in the "pick the longshot flip" type threads.  But it's admittedly a longshot.

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

No. He got 58% in the primary and while that's lower than last time Republicans may not have been as motivated because he was the only R in the primary

[libertpaulian]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

Nunes has been my choice in the "pick the longshot flip" type threads.  But it's admittedly a longshot.

Honestly, with all of this Russia crap going on, he should be one of the Dems' top targets.

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Why the confidence in CA-10 and CA-25? Do you think they will benefit from low Hispanic turnout?

Personally CA-10 is right next door to me and I've seen quite a few Denham signs. He also supports DACA and finding a path to citizenship. He's also good with local issues involving farming and water.

CA-25 is really just based off primary results. Knight was the only R running, so maybe Republicans weren't as motivated to turnout for the primary.

[libertpaulian]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Why the confidence in CA-10 and CA-25? Do you think they will benefit from low Hispanic turnout?

Personally CA-10 is right next door to me and I've seen quite a few Denham signs. He also supports DACA and finding a path to citizenship. He's also good with local issues involving farming and water.

CA-25 is really just based off primary results. Knight was the only R running, so maybe Republicans weren't as motivated to turnout for the primary.

There were a significant number of Dems who opposed Obamacare (or who voted for Obamacare but later flip-flopped on the issue) that went down in 2010, 2012, and 2014.

I don't see how supporting DACA and comprehensive immigration reform saves them in those swingy districts in this political climate. 

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

Nunes has been my choice in the "pick the longshot flip" type threads.  But it's admittedly a longshot.

Honestly, with all of this Russia crap going on, he should be one of the Dems' top targets.

He's been included in their list of targets. However the central valley in that area is not favorable to Democrats.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's the breakdown of R vs D total primary results:
CA 10: 52.1-47.9
CA 21: 62.8-37.2
CA 25: 51.8-48.2
CA 39: 53.3-45
CA 45: 51.7-46
CA 48: 53.1-46
CA 49: 50.8-47.7

So the only district where Republicans were outvoted was CA-49. Democrats did do a lot better than last time in the primary, but of course they had better turnout. Meanwhile, Republicans was about the same so they'll probably be less of a drop off between the primary and the general. In cases around the country like MO-2 and the Minnesota ones the D's actually outvoted the R's. This only happened in CA-49. DTC in an earlier post expected the D's to outvote the R's by 5-8 points which didn't happen.

[Coastal Elitist]

So SurveyUSA has a poll of CA-50: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter leads Najjar 47-39% with 42% of voters saying the charges against Hunter are politically motivated. 41% of voters say that the charges make no difference while 11% say they are more likely to vote for him because of the charges.