California House Races Megathread

[henster]

I've been waiting for some clever election official to come up with a scheme where casting a ballot gets the voter a state lottery ticket.

Yeah, I know this is probably illegal because it would be paying someone to vote.  But it would probably boost turnout quite a bit!

I don't know why it hasn't happened yet but Cali should just go full vote by mail like WA & OR.

[junior chįmp]

White Dem turnout in certain districts:

[fridgeking]

CA-49 is looking more and more like it could be a D vs D lockout.

[Skill and Chance]

CA-49 is looking more and more like it could be a D vs D lockout.

Put it all together in CA and it seems to suggest suburban white voters swinging even further left while Hispanic turnout falls off and/or the Hispanic vote swings right.  The same trends were showing up in the Texas primaries.

This could also imply that the Dem vote is unpacking nationwide.  I would not take the "it takes a D+8 generic ballot to flip the House" takes too seriously right now.

[fridgeking]

CA-49 is looking more and more like it could be a D vs D lockout.

Put it all together in CA and it seems to suggest suburban white voters swinging even further left while Hispanic turnout falls off and/or the Hispanic vote swings right.  The same trends were showing up in the Texas primaries.

If Hispanic turnout is assumed to be similar to 2014, the suburban white vote is going to give the dems an advantage that they haven't had before in districts like these.

[Skill and Chance]

CA-49 is looking more and more like it could be a D vs D lockout.

Put it all together in CA and it seems to suggest suburban white voters swinging even further left while Hispanic turnout falls off and/or the Hispanic vote swings right.  The same trends were showing up in the Texas primaries.

If Hispanic turnout is assumed to be similar to 2014, the suburban white vote is going to give the dems an advantage that they haven't had before in districts like these.

Very plausible IMO.  I could see them flipping most/all of the OC seats while Valadao holds on in CA-21.  Similarly, I could see the surburban Dallas and Houston Clinton seats in Texas (TX-32 and TX-07) flipping while Hurd holds TX-23 on the Rio Grande for the GOP.

[Coastal Elitist]

How hard is it to mail back a freaking ballot? Cali prob has one of the most convenient voting laws in the country and still it's a struggle for people to turn out.

Californians are Americans and Americans don’t like voting.

Yes this is true, my grandparents have lived in this state for a long time and have never registered to vote.

[Virginiá]

How hard is it to mail back a freaking ballot? Cali prob has one of the most convenient voting laws in the country and still it's a struggle for people to turn out.

It could be better. Their same-day registration requires you to go to a govt office of some sort as opposed to doing it right at the polling places, which it should have been like to begin with. There is no good reason to do SDR any other way except to cheap out on costs.

Also, they could follow WA's lead and use prepaid postage, so people can return their ballots without having to buy stamps. I'd guess that many people don't have stamps lying around, especially young people. So in the end you still have this situation where a voter has to go out of their way to vote, which was supposed to be something that VBM solved. Funny how people are so lazy that we are even talking about this to begin with.

[Jeppe]

CA-49 is looking more and more like it could be a D vs D lockout.

Harkey has a taken a very strong lead for first place, so I doubt it. On the flip hand, the DCCC successfully tanked Chavez’s chances at the run-off, so we’re not really in danger of a R vs R lock-out. Chavez is a much tougher candidate to beat than Harkey too, so it’s a win-win.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah the "lockout" looks to have been a unnecessary freakout

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah the "lockout" looks to have been a unnecessary freakout

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/sarajacobsca/status/1003371227812016129?s=21

“I too think that veterans are crusty and old”

[junior chįmp]

Yeah the "lockout" looks to have been a unnecessary freakout

Its always like that on this forum and the useless MSM

I remember articles on here that said "Doug Jones is failing to excite black voters," or how Trump's steel tarriffs would help Saccone over the finish line.

[junior chįmp]

Yeah the "lockout" looks to have been a unnecessary freakout

Its always like that on this forum and the useless MSM

I remember articles on here that said "Doug Jones is failing to excite black voters," or how Trump's steel tarriffs would help Saccone over the finish line.

Didn’t Lamb support the tariffs in response to them and take that issue off the table?

I doubt it made any difference since barely anyone works in the steel industry. There are 350 million people in the US and only 140k total are employed in steel. People act like the whole district only worked in steel. I doubt most people cared or even knew of the tarriffs.

[junior chįmp]

Yeah the "lockout" looks to have been a unnecessary freakout

Its always like that on this forum and the useless MSM

I remember articles on here that said "Doug Jones is failing to excite black voters," or how Trump's steel tarriffs would help Saccone over the finish line.

Didn’t Lamb support the tariffs in response to them and take that issue off the table?

I doubt it made any difference since barely anyone works in the steel industry. There are 350 million people in the US and only 140k total are employed in steel. People act like the whole district only worked in steel. I doubt most people cared or even knew of the tarriffs.

Ok but how does this relate to the second point I made?

Do you think the DCCC’s internal polling that caused them to dump over half a million in the final week here in anti-Baugh ads here was all based on a BS threat? It’s not a coincidence that the ads I get on TV/YouTube and the fencing signs I see everywhere I drive throughout this district are littered with the man’s name. Do you think this will bear no impact in him doing well enough to have possibly forced a shutout without that late minute DCCC massive ad buy against him?

Honestly...i doubt the ads do anything. Good study on this:

It Turns Out Canvassing and Political Ads Have ‘Zero’ Effect on Voters

Not to mention the GOP has been outspending Dems like crazy just to barely hold seats or lose them altogether.

There could be a shutout in maybe 1 district but the media has been endlessly insinuating and publishing stories that it could be in 4 or 5 districts which is what i was referring to. There are constant stories with titles like "Democratic catastrophe in California, or "The blue wave might come crashing down in blue California."

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GOP turnout has dropped off a cliff since Trump got elected so i wouldn't be too worried. If the GOP electorate wouldnt turnout in a rock solid red district like AZ-08 then I dont see why they would start turning out now in CA. Keep in mind Donald Trump got less votes in CA than Bush did in 2000 lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republican turnout actually wasn't down in AZ-08. The swing was purely from republican & independents swinging to dems. And the enthusiasm gap in PA-18 wasn't that big. Again, swing was the bigger factor here by far.

Granted, perhaps some Hillary repubs/independents turned out better than Trump repub/independents... but I doubt it was that significant.

[Virginiá]

Well GOP turnout is down yes, but I wouldn’t totally equate special elections with primary and midterm elections. They’re a good indicator but aren’t perfect since a special election has a lower base of support for the Party wereas midterm elections have a decent floor of support from both party’s voters that show up to vote every couple years. If AZ-08 and PA-18 had happened with midterm style conditions there’s no guarantee Lamb would’ve won or that Tippperini would’ve came within single digits.

More people voted in the AZ-08 special election than 2014 though. Now, granted, Franks ran unopposed by a Democrat in 2014, but there will still oodles of other races on the ballot. Some of these House special elections since Trump took office have had really good turnout - midterm level even. Not all of them, but the higher profile ones, sure.

[Coastal Elitist]

People really need to stop comparing every state. Each state has its own issues. Just because Republicans in other states haven't been as motivated doesn't mean that California one's won't. I really think Democrats are overrating their chances in Orange County. I would not guarantee that their won't be a lockout. Polls have mostly been internal and many candidates have been within the margin of error in multiple races.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003701275890987008?s=21

Endorsed

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003701275890987008?s=21

Endorsed

Congressman Harley Rouda will carry on this tradition.

Congressperson Dana Tyrone Rohrabacher hits all the demographic checkboxes

Black - Check!
Woman - Check!
Married to a woman - Check!

Who knew that the Republicans could have a black lesbian congresswoman from Orange County?

[GMantis]

Prediction on the top two finishers in the competitive races (excluding 21, which has only two candidates):

7: Bera, Grant
10: Denham, Harder
22: Nunes, Janz
24: Carbajal, Woody
25: Knight, Caforio
39: Cisneros, Huff
45: Walters, Min
48: Rohrabacher, Rouda
49: Harkey, Jacobs
50: Hunter, Campa-Najjar

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenWessel/status/1004370367291379713

https://www.twitter.com/BenWessel/status/1004371146353995776

[mencken]

Somewhat interesting (albeit fairly intuitive) findings from crunching precinct data in CA-48: Rohrabacher's 2016 share of the vote was ~10% higher than Trump's (I didn't count Stein/others/write-ins so this might actually be ~11%) in almost all cities of the district except for the heavily Asian ones (Fountain Valley and part of Westminster). It will be interesting to see if these areas maintain their pro-incumbent tendency or trend against the Republicans.

Based on how this seat was not seriously contested at all until this year, I suspect the latter. See the Virginia HoD races.

Preliminary precinct results are up. Rohrabacher/Baugh/Gabbard had a ~5% higher vote share in Fountain Valley than the district as a whole. Granted Fountain Valley will probably have a larger share of late ballots than most of the other cities in the district, but I doubt it shifts dramatically.

[Thunder98]

Any changes to the house race ratings?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1018218749516644352