California House Races Megathread

[Greedo punched first]

Is Cisneros a stronger candidate than Thorburn would have been? I can't see Thorburn doing as well.

[Jeppe]

Is Cisneros a stronger candidate than Thorburn would have been? I can't see Thorburn doing as well.

Much better than Thorburn, probably better than Jammal, probably worse than Tran. But Cisneros has boatloads of money, so at least he has that going for him.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure how bold it is, but I think Kim will be the only OC Republican to win their house race. I just don't think Cisneros is a great candidate for the 39th, although that point could be moot by November. It'll definitely flip by 2020.

On the other side, I think Walters is looking like an easier pickup by the day.

[Greedo punched first]

Does establishment Democrat Lou Correa survive 2020, or does he lose to a challenger from the left?

[mencken]

Kim is probably the slight favourite right now. She’s lead in all of the head-to-head match-ups against Cisneros, and this district was the most Republican one out of the Orange County districts in the June primary, even more so than CA-45 and CA-48.

It might even be the toughest OC seat overall. Democratic State Senator John Newman got recalled by a pretty solid margin in a district that aligns closely with CA-39 in June. It still has Republican downballot strength that is still holding on.

The district is so tough because Democrats depend the most on minority turnout to win in this race. It’s strongly majority-minority, but the electorate isn’t, especially in midterm elections.

In order to win, Cisneros needs to
1. Boost Latino turnout and ensure their representation in the electorate is more along the lines of 2016 rather than 2014.
2. Win Asian-American voters by a solid margin.
3. Avoid getting slaughtered among white voters.

The only reason I am hesitant to read into the jungle primary results is that GOP turnout was likely boosted by the aformentioned Josh Newman recall.

[Greedo punched first]

How high will Los Angeles County turnout be in CA-39?

[mencken]

Is Cisneros a stronger candidate than Thorburn would have been? I can't see Thorburn doing as well.

Much better than Thorburn, probably better than Jammal, probably worse than Tran. But Cisneros has boatloads of money, so at least he has that going for him.

IIRC, he is a lottery winner, so that wealth is not exactly reflective of any intrinsic talent. If he wins its solely due to the political climate and demographics (CA-39, TX-23, and FL-26 will all likely have a similar outcome)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kim is probably the slight favourite right now. She’s lead in all of the head-to-head match-ups against Cisneros, and this district was the most Republican one out of the Orange County districts in the June primary, even more so than CA-45 and CA-48.

It might even be the toughest OC seat overall. Democratic State Senator John Newman got recalled by a pretty solid margin in a district that aligns closely with CA-39 in June. It still has Republican downballot strength that is still holding on.

The district is so tough because Democrats depend the most on minority turnout to win in this race. It’s strongly majority-minority, but the electorate isn’t, especially in midterm elections.

In order to win, Cisneros needs to
1. Boost Latino turnout and ensure their representation in the electorate is more along the lines of 2016 rather than 2014.
2. Win Asian-American voters by a solid margin.
3. Avoid getting slaughtered among white voters.

Lol, Tran was significantly weaker than Thorburn, and even he’s not even in the same league as Cisneros in terms of candidate quality.  Cisneros was our only A-list recruit in the district this cycle.

[Greedo punched first]

Kim is probably the slight favourite right now. She’s lead in all of the head-to-head match-ups against Cisneros, and this district was the most Republican one out of the Orange County districts in the June primary, even more so than CA-45 and CA-48.

It might even be the toughest OC seat overall. Democratic State Senator John Newman got recalled by a pretty solid margin in a district that aligns closely with CA-39 in June. It still has Republican downballot strength that is still holding on.

The district is so tough because Democrats depend the most on minority turnout to win in this race. It’s strongly majority-minority, but the electorate isn’t, especially in midterm elections.

In order to win, Cisneros needs to
1. Boost Latino turnout and ensure their representation in the electorate is more along the lines of 2016 rather than 2014.
2. Win Asian-American voters by a solid margin.
3. Avoid getting slaughtered among white voters.

Lol, Tran was significantly weaker than Thorburn, and even he’s not even in the same league as Cisneros in terms of candidate quality.  Cisneros was our only A-list recruit in the district this cycle.

Is turnout going to be good in Los Angeles County?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Cisneros a stronger candidate than Thorburn would have been? I can't see Thorburn doing as well.

Much better than Thorburn, probably better than Jammal, probably worse than Tran. But Cisneros has boatloads of money, so at least he has that going for him.

IIRC, he is a lottery winner, so that wealth is not exactly reflective of any intrinsic talent. If he wins its solely due to the political climate and demographics (CA-39, TX-23, and FL-26 will all likely have a similar outcome)

Sounds a lot like Trump!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Cisneros a stronger candidate than Thorburn would have been? I can't see Thorburn doing as well.

Much better than Thorburn, probably better than Jammal, probably worse than Tran. But Cisneros has boatloads of money, so at least he has that going for him.

IIRC, he is a lottery winner, so that wealth is not exactly reflective of any intrinsic talent. If he wins its solely due to the political climate and demographics (CA-39, TX-23, and FL-26 will all likely have a similar outcome)

Sounds a lot like Trump!

If Trump used daddy's money to set up scholarships for underprivileged youths.

[Greedo punched first]

Unlike Trump, Cisneros served in the armed forces.

[Greedo punched first]

Kim is probably the slight favourite right now. She’s lead in all of the head-to-head match-ups against Cisneros, and this district was the most Republican one out of the Orange County districts in the June primary, even more so than CA-45 and CA-48.

It might even be the toughest OC seat overall. Democratic State Senator John Newman got recalled by a pretty solid margin in a district that aligns closely with CA-39 in June. It still has Republican downballot strength that is still holding on.

The district is so tough because Democrats depend the most on minority turnout to win in this race. It’s strongly majority-minority, but the electorate isn’t, especially in midterm elections.

In order to win, Cisneros needs to
1. Boost Latino turnout and ensure their representation in the electorate is more along the lines of 2016 rather than 2014.
2. Win Asian-American voters by a solid margin.
3. Avoid getting slaughtered among white voters.

Lol, Tran was significantly weaker than Thorburn, and even he’s not even in the same league as Cisneros in terms of candidate quality.  Cisneros was our only A-list recruit in the district this cycle.

Is turnout going to be good in Los Angeles County?

Probably the #Resistance is super fired up here to vote in safe d seats lol

Part of CA-39 (Hacienda Heights and Rowland Heights) is in LA County. If LA County turnout in CA-39 is poor, Cisneros might not win.

[socaldem]

Kim is probably the slight favourite right now. She’s lead in all of the head-to-head match-ups against Cisneros, and this district was the most Republican one out of the Orange County districts in the June primary, even more so than CA-45 and CA-48.

It might even be the toughest OC seat overall. Democratic State Senator John Newman got recalled by a pretty solid margin in a district that aligns closely with CA-39 in June. It still has Republican downballot strength that is still holding on.

The district is so tough because Democrats depend the most on minority turnout to win in this race. It’s strongly majority-minority, but the electorate isn’t, especially in midterm elections.

In order to win, Cisneros needs to
1. Boost Latino turnout and ensure their representation in the electorate is more along the lines of 2016 rather than 2014.
2. Win Asian-American voters by a solid margin.
3. Avoid getting slaughtered among white voters.

Lol, Tran was significantly weaker than Thorburn, and even he’s not even in the same league as Cisneros in terms of candidate quality.  Cisneros was our only A-list recruit in the district this cycle.

Um, Jay Chen, a Community College Trustee and the 2014 candidate would have been the best fit for the district and would have been heavily favored for the win. But, alas, he dropped out of the primary.

[Gass3268]

Pretends to be shocked:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1022570526303236096

[mencken]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey), the oppo research against Rouda is underwhelming (he's an "anti-gun socialist", haven't heard that one before), and he does not exactly exude grace under pressure. Disregarding my cathartic desire to see the anti-Russia fanatics lose I think Rouda probably has the upper hand here.

¹Undoubtedly sitting on their hands this cycle so that Scott Baugh can have the privilege of losing in 2020.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey), the oppo research against Rouda is underwhelming (he's an "anti-gun socialist", haven't heard that one before), and he does not exactly exude grace under pressure. Disregarding my cathartic desire to see the anti-Russia fanatics lose I think Rouda probably has the upper hand here.

¹Undoubtedly sitting on their hands this cycle so that Scott Baugh can have the privilege of losing in 2020.

Sounds like a pure toss up to me!

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

[Oryxslayer]

Anecdotal I know, but my Huntington Beach retired grandparents were against Rochrabacher. They are typically loyal republican foot-soldiers - both Trump voters, but don't like Rochrabacher's Russia ties. They want to see him gone (they voted for Baugh) but are happy to vote for Rouda to then return another Rep in 2020.

[Greedo punched first]

Will turnout in Hacienda Heights be fairly good? Cisneros needs it to win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pretends to be shocked:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1022570526303236096

Fueling more questions? I think we know everything we need to without having to ask them.

[Jeppe]

Will turnout in Hacienda Heights be fairly good? Cisneros needs it to win.

Not sure, it had a large turnout increase from the 2014 primary, but that’s because this year they were being actively targeted by Cisneros and his campaign. Hispanics generally haven’t had very good turnout this year, as TX-27 can testify to, so it might be pretty underwhelming in November.

The Asian-American community overall should vote for Gil Cisneros, as Young Kim is Korean and a largest portion of the AAPI community is Chinese-American. However, this district is represented almost entirely by Chinese-American Republican legislators (State Senator Ling Ling Chang & State Assemblyman Phillip Chen), so who knows.

[Greedo punched first]

Has Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon (whose district overlaps with CA-39) endorsed Cisneros?

[Coastal Elitist]

Poll from CA-39 has Cisneros beating Kim by 11 with just 5% undecided. It is an internal though.

https://cisnerosforcongress.com/app/uploads/2018/08/Tulchin-Research-Memo-Gil-Cisneros-CA-39-PUBLIC-MEMO-8-18.pdf

[Jeppe]

This is the same pollster that had Mike Levin comfortably ahead of Harkey in the jungle primary in CA-49, so I wouldn’t be too confident in these numbers. After all, the DCCC’s in-house pollster had Kim ahead in June.