California House Races Megathread

[Jeppe]

New Tulchin Research Poll (D) for CA-49:

Mike Levin (D) 17%
Diane Harkey (R) 15%
Doug Applegate (D) 12%
Sara Jacobs (D) 11%
Rocky Chavez (R) 11%
Paul Kerr (D) 7%
Kristin Gaspar (R) 7%
Brian Maryott (R) 6%
Undecided 13%

Source

I’d be wary of this poll, it’s an internal trying to pose as an independent poll. It was paid by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which endorsed Levin, but they make that really hard to decipher.

[Gass3268]

New Tulchin Research Poll (D) for CA-49:

Mike Levin (D) 17%
Diane Harkey (R) 15%
Doug Applegate (D) 12%
Sara Jacobs (D) 11%
Rocky Chavez (R) 11%
Paul Kerr (D) 7%
Kristin Gaspar (R) 7%
Brian Maryott (R) 6%
Undecided 13%

Source

I’d be wary of this poll, it’s an internal trying to pose as an independent poll. It was paid by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which endorsed Levin, but they make that really hard to decipher.

Didn't see that, then again all I care is that we have two polls today showing Rocky Chavez falling out of contention with almost all of the Republicans having made up their minds.

[Gass3268]

Today's VBM update from RRH:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's really important to remember that Registered Republican =/= Republican Voter and vice versa for Democrats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Today's VBM update from RRH:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's really important to remember that Registered Republican =/= Republican Voter and vice versa for Democrats.

Yeah. The SUSA poll had 17% of Republicans voting for various dems.

[Politician]

I think Sara Jacobs Colonel Doug Applegate can do this!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003029298436018176

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003029298436018176

Looks about right. I think Rouda and Rohrabacher outperform expectations on June 5th at the expense of Keirstead and Baugh respectively.

EDIT: Is there a source for this poll? Can’t find one even on that twitter thread.

I can't find one either.  Mutnick subsequently tweeted:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003036361484578832

[mencken]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1003029298436018176

Looks about right. I think Rouda and Rohrabacher outperform expectations on June 5th at the expense of Keirstead and Baugh respectively.

EDIT: Is there a source for this poll? Can’t find one even on that twitter thread.

When did we decide to throw out the rule that internal polls generally have a more favorable result for the candidate that commissioned them? Subtract ~6% is roughly the general rule (see Levin's internal versus the SUSA poll in CA-49 for instance). That would also be more consistent with a high single digits lead for Republicans at this stage in the game (remember Democrats have higher turnout in the general than the jungle primary)

In any case, bad news for Baugh, but I think Keirstead might have more of a fighting chance. It would also be interesting if they included Siddiqui (who has littered Newport Beach with his signs) and Gabbard (who the Democrats have been propping up with mailers)

[Atlas Force]

If that Baugh number is anywhere close to the actual result, safe to say that the DCCC spending money against him has been working.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

To say the least, this is a sh!tshow. Hopefully we only blow one to two races by making them R vs R instead of 5 or 6. Who knows.

[Politician]

Right now, I'm confident that CA-48 will be D vs R.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Right now, I'm confident that CA-48 will be D vs R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

To say the least, this is a sh!tshow. Hopefully we only blow one to two races by making them R vs R instead of 5 or 6. Who knows.

Holy hell you’re dumb

Maybe, but not dumb enough to think that this jungle primary thing is a good idea.

[YE]

To say the least, this is a sh!tshow. Hopefully we only blow one to two races by making them R vs R instead of 5 or 6. Who knows.

Holy hell you’re dumb

Maybe, but not dumb enough to think that this jungle primary thing is a good idea.

There's a decent chance at there being no R vs R runoffs in any of the 8 competitive districts. At most, they'll be 1-2 R vs R's.

[Maxwell]

Today's VBM update from RRH:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's really important to remember that Registered Republican =/= Republican Voter and vice versa for Democrats.

Some polls have Diane Harkey way up in the Republicans, but I think CA-49 has a real shot at being a D v. D top two, and more of a chance for a D v. D top two than a R v. R top two. Rocky Chavez's campaign has gone about as well as I expected - potent on paper but in reality garnering no enthusiasm (plus he's always been a weak campaigner).

[Greedo punched first]

Does Rouda make runoff?

[mencken]

Does Rouda make runoff?

He is winning the yard sign battle (at least in the southern part of the district). Probably the favorite, although I would not rule out either Baugh or Keirstead yet (or even Siddiqui, who could benefit if Rouda and Keirstead nuke each other).

[Greedo punched first]

In the northern part of CA-48, I have seen more Baugh signs than Rouda. I have also seen more Siddiqui signs than Keirstead.

[Bidenworth2020]

In the northern part of CA-48, I have seen more Baugh signs than Rouda. I have also seen more Siddiqui signs than Keirstead.

who wins you think?

[Maxwell]

Keep in mind for this post - I'm comparing the ballots that have actually been returned to the mailed ballots (so far returned ballots look like they're D+11 compared to D+19 to all of the ballots that have been mailed - which means the electorate that has returned ballots so far is 8 points more republican than the general mail in electorate)

On the plus for Democrats - early vote looks great in CA-49 (tied returned ballots even as mailed ballots show an R+5 advantage). This is a great sign because this is a district where the primary fields are wide on both sides and there's potential for both an R v. R lock out and a D v. D lock out, the second is beginning to look more likely here than the first. Things also look pretty good in CA-48 (R+9 returned, R+11 mailed) and (!!!) CA-4 (R+13 Returned and Mailed), both marks are substantially better than the state average and in CA-48's case it might help mitigate the risk of an R v. R race, while CA-4 it might be on the strength of Jessica Morse as a candidate, who has been raising more money than McClintock and been running a strong campaign so far [and my pick for sneaker race should the #BlueWave actually come to fruition). It looks okay/good in CA-10 (D+2 Returned, D+5 Mailed), CA-50 (R+14 Returned, R+19 Mailed) and CA-22 (R+10 Returned, R+15 Mailed).

Minus for Democrats - early vote is dreadful in CA-21 (D+7 Returned, D+19 (!!!) Mailed) and CA-25 (R+8 (!!!) Returned, D+5 Mailed).  Maybe those are because of a lack of a competitive primary in CA-21's case or the lack of risk of a R v. R run-off in CA-25's case, but these might also be slight indicators that Dem enthusiasm is not strong in these areas and they really need to be: CA-21 is Valadao's district and CA-25 is the mythic beast that is Steve Knight's district, a district that kind of hits all of the marks of a super competitive district.

I might be taking too much meaning from these numbers - there's still some time to mail ballots in and then election day.

[Greedo punched first]

If Newman is recalled in SD-29, would Democrats (like Josh Ferguson) still hold the seat? Or would it flip?

[Coastal Elitist]

If Newman is recalled in SD-29, would Democrats (like Josh Ferguson) still hold the seat? Or would it flip?

If he's recalled why would those voters elect another Democrat. Looking at current absentee numbers I think it flips. This should be in the statewide thread though not the congressional one.

[henster]

How hard is it to mail back a freaking ballot? Cali prob has one of the most convenient voting laws in the country and still it's a struggle for people to turn out.

[OneJ]

How hard is it to mail back a freaking ballot? Cali prob has one of the most convenient voting laws in the country and still it's a struggle for people to turn out.

Californians are Americans and Americans don’t like voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've been waiting for some clever election official to come up with a scheme where casting a ballot gets the voter a state lottery ticket.

Yeah, I know this is probably illegal because it would be paying someone to vote.  But it would probably boost turnout quite a bit!