California House Races Megathread

[Politician]

I'm not worried about R vs R in CA-49 due to Chavez imploding and Applegate maintaining a narrow lead. I am worried about CA-48, though, and this is where Dems need to make sure a candidate advances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball on the California House Races

[KingSweden]

Crystal Ball on the California House Races

Good article. Agree with the conclusions.

[Jeppe]

Pre-primary financial reports on our favourite California races. Brackets is cash-on-hand.

CA-25
Katie Hill - $273,000 ($303,000)
Bryan Caforio - $126,000 ($337,000)
Steve Knight - $124,000 ($1,050,000)
Jess Phoenix - $48,000 ($23,000)

CA-39
Young Kim - $307,000 ($273,000)
Shawn Nelson - $169,000 ($159,000)
Bob Huff - $104,000 ($106,000)
Sam Jammal - $99,000 ($148,000)
Gil Cisneros - $50,000 ($168,000)
Mai Khanh-Tran - $28,000 ($228,000)
Andy Thorburn - $18,000 ($191,000)

CA-45
Brian Forde - $239,000 ($545,000)
Dave Min - $201,000 ($247,000)
Mimi Walters - $196,000 ($1,593,000)
Kia Hamadanchy - $49,000 ($89,000)

CA-48
Scott Baugh - $275,000 ($272,000)
Harley Rouda - $152,000 ($600,000)
Dana Rohrabacher - $95,000 ($433,000)
Hans Keirstead - $78,000 ($202,000)
Omar Siddiqui - $11,000 (($751,000)

CA-49
Paul Kerr - $2,009,000 ($433,000)
Sara Jacobs - $555,000 ($442,000)
Mike Levin - $165,000 ($279,000)
Doug Applegate - $97,000 ($57,000)
Kristin Gaspar - $95,000 ($66,000)
Diane Harkey - $92,000 ($102,000)
Rocky Chavez - $28,000 ($34,000)

I’ll add Katie Porter’s financial reports when I see them.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm increasingly worried about 48. Rohrabacher losing support and endorsements is good for the Democrats IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. There's a good chance that Rohrabacher losing support will lead to Republicans switching to Baugh and furthering the chances of a Democratic lockout.

[Torie]

National Association of Realtors withdraws their endorsement of Dana Rohrabacher. He made some comments recently opposing the extension of fair housing protections to gay people

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/05/24/dana-rohrabacher-says-its-ok-to-not-sell-homes-to-gays-loses-support-of-realtors/

Ouch! Really? Well, I never like him much anyway except in his youthful pothead days.

[KingSweden]

I'm increasingly worried about 48. Rohrabacher losing support and endorsements is good for the Democrats IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. There's a good chance that Rohrabacher losing support will lead to Republicans switching to Baugh and furthering the chances of a Democratic lockout.

If you’re gonna sweat one House race, sweat this one.

[_]

CA-48 being R v R would probably be the funniest thing to happen this Midterm.  GO BAUGH

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pre-primary financial reports on our favourite California races. Brackets is cash-on-hand.

CA-25
Katie Hill - $273,000 ($303,000)
Bryan Caforio - $126,000 ($337,000)
Steve Knight - $124,000 ($1,050,000)
Jess Phoenix - $48,000 ($23,000)

CA-39
Young Kim - $307,000 ($273,000)
Shawn Nelson - $169,000 ($159,000)
Bob Huff - $104,000 ($106,000)
Sam Jammal - $99,000 ($148,000)
Gil Cisneros - $50,000 ($168,000)
Mai Khanh-Tran - $28,000 ($228,000)
Andy Thorburn - $18,000 ($191,000)

CA-45
Brian Forde - $239,000 ($545,000)
Dave Min - $201,000 ($247,000)
Mimi Walters - $196,000 ($1,593,000)
Kia Hamadanchy - $49,000 ($89,000)

CA-48
Scott Baugh - $275,000 ($272,000)
Harley Rouda - $152,000 ($600,000)
Dana Rohrabacher - $95,000 ($433,000)
Hans Keirstead - $78,000 ($202,000)
Omar Siddiqui - $11,000 (($751,000)

CA-49
Paul Kerr - $2,009,000 ($433,000)
Sara Jacobs - $555,000 ($442,000)
Mike Levin - $165,000 ($279,000)
Doug Applegate - $97,000 ($57,000)
Kristin Gaspar - $95,000 ($66,000)
Diane Harkey - $92,000 ($102,000)
Rocky Chavez - $28,000 ($34,000)

I’ll add Katie Porter’s financial reports when I see them.

What are the numbers when you include self-funding?

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

These mailers are getting just a tad bit ridiculous.

"As a young conservative"? I only think human people are allowed to serve in the United States Congress, not whatever this ridiculous-sounding animal is. Capitol police, get him out!

[Skill and Chance]

CA-48 being R v R would probably be the funniest thing to happen this Midterm.  GO BAUGH

Looks to me like Rohrabacher is imploding so badly that the likeliest top 2 outcome might be Dem vs. Baugh at this point.  CA-39 with the Cisneros-Thorburn negative feedback loop is where an R vs. R is most likely IMO.

Also, while I think a Dem will get to the general in CA-49, the CW is way underestimating the odds that Dem is Sara Jacobs, who might not be able to win the general.

[Virginiá]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1000403088946225153

[Politician]

Currently I'm only worried about CA-48, though there is a chance of R vs R in all three, and in CA-49, there is a good chance that the worst candidate (Sara Jacobs) makes the runoff against a Republican.

[Goldenstateguy]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

[Bidenworth2020]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

im thinking that too as of now, but dems have the momentum in 48

[KingSweden]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

It’s certainly the likeliest seat to get a D shutout

[Virginiá]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

My gut tells me that Goldenstateguy is Likely King Lear

[Bidenworth2020]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

My gut tells me that Goldenstateguy is Likely King Lear

what? I really dont see a problem, he actually has analysis, and isnt concern trollling

[Virginiá]

what? I really dont see a problem, he actually has analysis, and isnt concern trollling

IP/Device match

[Oryxslayer]

My gut tells me that CA-48 will be a R vs R lockout between Bough and Roharbacher, while CA-39 and CA-49 will be D vs R races (Applegate vs Chavez in CA-49 and Cisneros vs Kim in CA-39).

My gut tells me that Goldenstateguy is Likely King Lear

what? I really dont see a problem, he actually has analysis, and isnt concern trollling

Check out his recent posts, plus the fact the account is brand new...

[Politician]

what? I really dont see a problem, he actually has analysis, and isnt concern trollling

IP/Device match

And he sounds like KL (broken grammar, using the phrase "gut feeling", etc.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the former chairman of the California GOP:

https://twitter.com/RonNehring/status/1000461306250571777

[Greedo punched first]

From the former chairman of the California GOP:

https://twitter.com/RonNehring/status/1000461306250571777

Fitzgerald ran as a Democrat in 2012, just like Tom Metzger did decades ago.

[Politician]

From the former chairman of the California GOP:

https://twitter.com/RonNehring/status/1000461306250571777

That's the fourth Nazi Republican so far, and 2nd in California.