State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[ON Progressive]

The 142nd Assembly District result looks pretty bad.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

Neither 102 or 107 are held by Democrats.

[ON Progressive]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

LOL

[ON Progressive]

I'm just realizing now that this is a Dem hold rather then a gain. I thought this was another open Cuban seat like the ones last year.

This is an open seat with a lot of Cubans in fairness, but Cubans aren't quite as overpowering as they are in SD-40.

[ON Progressive]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

This was a fine result. Fernandez did better than Murphy 2016, Crist in 2014, and Obama in 2012. He also did better than Daisy Baez did when she flipped this seat in 2016.

[ON Progressive]

West Miami is extremely cuban, moreso than almost any other neighborhood in Miami. Marco Rubio is from there.

So I am guessing Baez is a Cuban candidate and syphoned off enough votes from West Miami in 2016 to pass the finish line?

Even if all the Baez votes went to the GOP (which they wouldn't necessarily, she sent out mailers calling herself a "true progressive"), the Dem would have still won.

It's just that Cuban voters are very GOP downballot still, which would be shown even more because it's more likely to be older Cubans than younger Cubans (lower turnout = older electorate usually). Older Cubans are loyal GOPers, younger Cubans are more Dem leaning.

[ON Progressive]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

1) Clinton carried that seat by 14%, not 20%.
2) A large Cuban population means that presidential numbers are practically meaningless in Miami-Dade.

[ON Progressive]

Would it actually hurt Felder to switch to the Republican Party? His district is, iirc, a Romney/Trump district, although it did swing left in 2016. Going purely by the presidential numbers, if anything, the Democratic label seems like a liability rather than an asset in that district.

I don't think it'll matter much for him in all honesty. He is popular with the Orthodox Jewish majority in his district, and that will keep him safe unless that popularity changes.

[ON Progressive]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

It won't make it smaller since Felder caucuses with the GOP anyway.

[ON Progressive]

This was the result of the CT race tonight btw

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1003812390495023104

[ON Progressive]

This was the result of the CT race tonight btw

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1003812390495023104

Any comparison to previous years? CT Dems are in a bad spot so I’d be curious if that result reflects the human anchor that is Dan Malloy

It was an 88-9 Clinton seat, and this ends up being a 93-5 result when you combine the two Dems up. So Dems actually did 9 points better than 2016, which has been rare in CT special elections. Quite impressive actually, given that the seat was already Titanium D.

[ON Progressive]

You gotta link the source for this...

https://www.claycoelections.com/

It's the "Live Election Results" button

[ON Progressive]

You gotta link the source for this...

https://www.claycoelections.com/

It's the "Live Election Results" button

Why on earth did you have to tell him? He could have found it for himself.

No need to be so antagonistic over linking someone to election results.

[ON Progressive]

Arthur continues to hold her lead with 7 precincts reporting. Hard to know what is reporting first, though I definitely like where she is at.

She actually slightly expanded it in fact. I'm waiting until about 40% reporting or so to really say anything though.

[ON Progressive]

Trump won this area by like 17 points

Not even remotely true. MO SD-17 was a 49-45 Trump seat that Kander and Koster won.

[ON Progressive]

A bunch of precincts come in. Arthur's margin does go down, but still ahead 61-39 with a third of the vote in.

We don't know exactly where the votes are from though...

[ON Progressive]

Why do you guys think this is such a substantial win for her?

It's a very purple district in a Dem leaning environment. Also helps that the MO GOP is best described as a s***show.

[ON Progressive]

Final result:

Lauren Arthur (D) 14,674 (59.61%)
Kevin Corlew (R) 9,917 (40.28%)

Keep in mind the one poll of this race had Arthur up 47-41, and it ended up being 59-40.

[ON Progressive]

My predictions:
SD-01: 52-47 Dem
AD-42: 54-46 Rep

[ON Progressive]

http://www.co.door.wi.gov/docview.asp?docid=3831&locid=137

Door County dump:
Frostman 4712 (62.64%)
Jacque 2804 (37.28%)

That might just about do it.

[ON Progressive]

Frostman did better than Dallet in Calumet County. I think this is over.

[ON Progressive]

Brown

Jacques- 3,684
Frostman- 2,955

Jacques needed more than a thousand votes there, but he didn’t get it. Frostman still up 1,026 votes

Where did you get that Brown result? Can't find it on the county website. Still has it 2783-2067 Jacques

[ON Progressive]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

LMAO at that article. Nobody is actually going to switch votes just because a candidate used profanity once, and if that's the attack Walker is going to use, he's going down hard in November.