State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Tintrlvr]

Oh and in less inspiring news, Republicans held the other seat:

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   5,648   53%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816   45%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   278   3%

Matches my prediction exactly

That one tightened up a lot at the end. Last I saw Plumer was over 60% with half reporting. Decent result overall even if it could have been better.

[Gass3268]

Oh and in less inspiring news, Republicans held the other seat:

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   5,648   53%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816   45%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   278   3%

Matches my prediction exactly

That one tightened up a lot at the end. Last I saw Plumer was over 60% with half reporting. Decent result overall even if it could have been better.

It's a brutally drawn district that takes a large portion of generally Democratic leaning Columbia County and combines it with some die hard Republican Dutch areas in the eastern part of the district.

[Matty]

Is Columbia county becoming reddish? Trump won it in 2016.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guys, LL isnt real, he’s just a figment of our imagination.

[Gass3268]

Is Columbia county becoming reddish? Trump won it in 2016.

Obama did really well there, Bush won it in 04, Gore in 00. On average it leans Democratic, but they can never really get a huge margin out of it. It should be noted that the Democratic city of Portage is not in this district.

[IceSpear]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

It's so weird. He keeps getting these races wrong and for some reason always seems to favor Republicans (wrongly). I don't understand why. I'm just so perplexed by this!

Yeah I mean, I can understand thinking the first few times were a fluke. But you'd think after the 50th time or so you'd learn to stop touching the stove.

[Gass3268]

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My predictions was half. Was expecting 2 dems winning tonight. Oh well..

[junior chįmp]

Like I've been saying for a year now: Scott Walker is finished

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I may have to change my name again. The Governor Race is now Tilt R, down from Solid...those are some great numbers in the North-Eastern Corner of the state. If they can replicate even half of Obama '08 margins, Wisconsin Dems might have a shot next redistricting.

[Brittain33]

I may have to change my name again. The Governor Race is now Tilt R, down from Solid...those are some great numbers in the North-Eastern Corner of the state. If they can replicate even half of Obama '08 margins, Wisconsin Dems might have a shot next redistricting.

Hard to see how Walker wins.

[Gass3268]

Some Miles maps:

[Dr. Arch]

Look at how disgustingly gerrymandered that AD-42 district is. I can't even.

[KingSweden]

The Frostman-Jacque race is a good reminder that Dallet’s numbers don’t take into account local pols. They are a potential topline, but even many winning Dems will probably run slightly behind her.

[Gass3268]

The Frostman-Jacque race is a good reminder that Dallet’s numbers don’t take into account local pols. They are a potential topline, but even many winning Dems will probably run slightly behind her.

Yup, there was no party label (which matters) in the Supreme Court case and in this case Jacque was the Assembly rep for the Assembly District that makes up the middle part of this district (i.e. where he over performed).

[Wiz in Wis]

The Frostman-Jacque race is a good reminder that Dallet’s numbers don’t take into account local pols. They are a potential topline, but even many winning Dems will probably run slightly behind her.

Yup, there was no party label (which matters) in the Supreme Court case and in this case Jacque was the Assembly rep for the Assembly District that makes up the middle part of this district (i.e. where he over performed).

Both special losses for the GOP featured strong Assembly members beaten by newcomers. Not a great sign for GOP in Nov.

[KingSweden]

The Frostman-Jacque race is a good reminder that Dallet’s numbers don’t take into account local pols. They are a potential topline, but even many winning Dems will probably run slightly behind her.

Yup, there was no party label (which matters) in the Supreme Court case and in this case Jacque was the Assembly rep for the Assembly District that makes up the middle part of this district (i.e. where he over performed).

Both special losses for the GOP featured strong Assembly members beaten by newcomers. Not a great sign for GOP in Nov.

A fair thing to consider.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

[Landslide Lyndon]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

Snowflake Scott is in for a rude awakening this November.

[Doimper]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

Bold words from the Koch komrade

[Dr. Arch]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

OBAMA, HILLARY, LIBERAL MADISON, LIBERAL MILWAUKEE.

Scott's campaigns literally every single time, even in 2018.

[ON Progressive]

Walker did not comment on the SD-1 race directly, but he did post this article in a complaint about the "hatred of the left": https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/wisconsin-democrat-candidates-use-trump-tactics/

He also posted this:  @BarackObama and his big government allies finally announced what we’ve always known, they’re targeting our race in Wisconsin. We need your help to stand up and combat their out-of-state money and attacks. Support our bold reforms: https://t.co/I8C41wuTtE

LMAO at that article. Nobody is actually going to switch votes just because a candidate used profanity once, and if that's the attack Walker is going to use, he's going down hard in November.

[Badger]

Look at how disgustingly gerrymandered that AD-42 district is. I can't even.

[mds32]

Look at how disgustingly gerrymandered that AD-42 district is. I can't even.

Have you seen PA? These look beautiful.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Dems apparently won a commission race in Miami-Dada https://mobile.twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1009239965501476865