State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FFS Wulfric both candidates in 142 are Democrats

I'm going by what they're listed by on the ballot.

[Sestak]

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

[LimoLiberal]

Doran still has an about 25% chance... if she can match the margins in some of the very-democratic precincts already reported in Columbia county for all 7 remaining precincts, she can pull ahead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

[Sestak]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

[Oryxslayer]

And 142 isn't even a "R" its just weird.

[KingSweden]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

It’s a Democrat with the R ballot line, because New York has to be special that way

[Devils30]

http://buffalonews.com/2018/04/24/erik-bohen-appears-to-capture-142nd-district-assembly-race/

142 is just a weird district

[Ebsy]

So D+1 for the night.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

[Gass3268]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

They've held AD-10 since 1978.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

[Sestak]

No. They had 5,10,17,102,107.

(At least according to Limo's thread)

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

Neither 102 or 107 are held by Democrats.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

No they were both R held https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/21/1758947/-April-24-New-York-s-Spring-Special-Elections-Spectacular

R's lost one if we assume 142 stays in caucus, or wash if take the label at face value

[Tartarus Sauce]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate tonight?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No. They had 5,10,17,102,107.

(At least according to Limo's thread)

I saw an earlier comment on this thread with only 4 of those listed that no one replied to, but whatever.

So even according to ballot designations if the current leaders stay ahead.

[junior chįmp]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate tonight?

Unfortunately, no.

[LimoLiberal]

AD-5 63-37 60-36 +2 GOP SWING
AD-10 59-41 52-45 +11 DEM SWING
AD-17 63-36 58-39 +10 GOP SWING
AD-39 UNCONTESTED
AD-74 90-5 85-11 +11 DEM SWING
AD-80 81-18 82-16 +3 GOP SWING
AD-102 46-44 59-36 +21 DEM SWING
AD-107 52-48 49-45 NO SWING
AD-142 53-47 51-45 NO SWING
SD-32 89-2 93-5 +1 GOP SWING
SD-37 58-42 59-38 +5 GOP SWING

Average Dem Swing tonight of 5 points. Blue wave? That's your call.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GOP wins 142 officially:

142nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 84,754)   Election Districts Reporting: 55 of 55
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Patrick B. Burke   DEM   .   42.95 %   4,787   .   47.49 %   5,293
WOR   .   3.71 %   414           
REF      0.83 %   92           
Erik T. Bohen   REP   .   35.25 %   3,929   .   52.32 %   5,831
CON   .   10.66 %   1,188           
IND   .   6.41 %   714           
Blank         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Void         0.05 %   6      0.05 %   6
Write-in         0.11 %   12      0.11 %   12
Total Votes   11,145

So 6-4 now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AD-5 63-37 60-36 +2 GOP SWING
AD-10 59-41 52-45 +11 DEM SWING
AD-17 63-36 58-39 +10 GOP SWING
AD-39 UNCONTESTED
AD-74 90-5 85-11 +11 DEM SWING
AD-80 81-18 82-16 +3 GOP SWING
AD-102 46-44 59-36 +21 DEM SWING
AD-107 52-48 49-45 NO SWING
AD-142 53-47 51-45 NO SWING
SD-32 89-2 93-5 +1 GOP SWING
SD-37 58-42 59-38 +5 GOP SWING

Average Dem Swing tonight of 5 points. Blue wave? That's your call.

G. Elliott Morris said it doesn't affect the national average. Plus, New York is already a reliable Blue state, where we should be able to pick up at least 2 seats in November.

[LimoLiberal]

I really hope the Democratic party of New York invested in O'Connor and Doran's races. If they got no financial support....

[Gass3268]

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.