State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Tartarus Sauce]

Wow, NY Senate Republicans are retiring like crazy. This should be more than enough seats being vacated to secure at least one of them and flip the chamber.

[junior chįmp]

Wow, NY Senate Republicans are retiring like crazy. This should be more than enough seats being vacated to secure at least one of them and flip the chamber.

Rumor has it there may be up to 5-6 more GOP retirements in the State Senate. About 40% of the GOPers in the State Senate may bail before November

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

They do only hold the majority by one seat thanks to Simcha Felder, so it's not unreasonable at all to assume they will lose the Senate even if they perform above the national environment. Democrats are practically assured to dismantle the gerrymandered map if they control the chamber for the next round of redistricting, so I guess they're deciding to jump ship before it fully sinks.

[Theodore]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

[smoltchanov]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

[Theodore]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

I live in this district and it looks like there is a high turnout for the early voting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans have around a total 70% of the vote.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 8 ET. Results pages:

Austin County: Possibly https://austincountynewsonline.com/election-results/

Burleson County: http://co.burleson.tx.us/government/elections/election-results/

Colorado County: http://www.co.colorado.tx.us/default.aspx?Colorado_County/Elections

Fayette County: http://www.co.fayette.tx.us/page/fayette.Elections

Grimes County: http://www.co.grimes.tx.us/page/Election%20Results

Not seeing a page for Lavaca and Washington counties.

Add up results from all counties to get the final result.

[Tintrlvr]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

They do only hold the majority by one seat thanks to Simcha Felder, so it's not unreasonable at all to assume they will lose the Senate even if they perform above the national environment. Democrats are practically assured to dismantle the gerrymandered map if they control the chamber for the next round of redistricting, so I guess they're deciding to jump ship before it fully sinks.

I believe the non-partisan redistricting law New York passed before the last redistricting also kicks in for the state legislature in the 2020 redistricting (they delayed the state legislature until 2020 last time as a compromise), so the gerrymander is dead regardless, which means the New York State Senate Republican majority is doomed in the near future anyway.

[Virginiá]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

[UncleSam]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Pretty sure it’s already been happening

[KingSweden]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

I live in this district and it looks like there is a high turnout for the early voting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans have around a total 70% of the vote.

70% would be an underperformance of Prez toplines, then.

[Theodore]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

I live in this district and it looks like there is a high turnout for the early voting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans have around a total 70% of the vote.

70% would be an underperformance of Prez toplines, then.

I think 2016 was a bad year for Democrats in TX 13th, like it was the absolute worse they could do. I'm sure they can do a little better in a special election. Good news for Democrats though is there is no place to go from here, but up. Bad news for Democrats though is that the Democrats are running the same person that lost the 2016 election. Both Wolfskill and Leman are good candidates in there own right, however I see a 9 point swing or something larger as possible.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed. Try to track down results.

[Theodore]

https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/may05_328_state.htm

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,751   39.25%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   817   18.31%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   1,893   42.43%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      4,461   
Precincts Reported      3   of   75 Precincts      4.00%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

[Pandaguineapig]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

[Pandaguineapig]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

Clinton did not win HD114 by 20 points.

[Gass3268]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

Clinton did not win HD114 by 20 points.

Also it's still a big deal the Democrats won a seat that Cuban in a down ballot race.

[ON Progressive]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

1) Clinton carried that seat by 14%, not 20%.
2) A large Cuban population means that presidential numbers are practically meaningless in Miami-Dade.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,985   38.33%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   1,027   19.83%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   2,166   41.83%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      5,178   
Precincts Reported      7   of   75 Precincts      9.33%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,367   38.70%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,261   20.62%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,487   40.67%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,115   
Precincts Reported      8   of   75 Precincts      10.67%

The democratic candidate in 2016 received 22%, so this is a 1% swing to Rs from that.