Actress Cynthia Nixon of Sex and the City to run for NY Governor

[cinyc]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

Upstate opens at noon?!? I had no idea. Bizarre.

Someone should challenge this and all other unequal poll opening/closing hours as unconstitutional. There is zero reason why rural voters should have less acess to the polls than urban voters.

I agree polling locations should be uniform. On what grounds is it unconstitutional though?  Elections are state run.

Violates Equal Protection. Similar to the one-man one-vote cases, I suppose.

[Duke of York]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

Upstate opens at noon?!? I had no idea. Bizarre.

Someone should challenge this and all other unequal poll opening/closing hours as unconstitutional. There is zero reason why rural voters should have less acess to the polls than urban voters.

I agree polling locations should be uniform. On what grounds is it unconstitutional though?  Elections are state run.

Violates Equal Protection. Similar to the one-man one-vote cases, I suppose.

I wonder why no one has challenged it then

[junior chįmp]

IDK if bringing any voting rights cases before the SCOTUS is a good idea with a solid Conservative majority now.

The case should be brought before the NY state Supreme Court instead

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

That's honestly something that should be court challenged. My workday starts at 12:45pm and has about a half hour commute. And it takes close to 15 minutes to get set up...having to vote at noon and then come in would be cutting it close.

[Duke of York]

So, it wouldn't be expected that there'd be a certain protest-vote of sorts against Cuomo upstate? I'm not suggesting she should be able to win up there as a result of it, but I always imagined anybody running against an incumbent Democrat in the state would do better as a result (not to mention that there's a big correlation in general between incumbent support and minority vote-share, or the lack thereof).

Is it reasonable to expect Nixon will do better upstate in general (even if she wins no non-Tompkins counties) than she would in NYC (perhaps save for Manhattan)?

That's difficult to guess, but Nixon will do poorly around the larger Upstate cities where most of the votes are cast. Look at Buffalo: In 2014, Cuomo won more votes in Erie County than he did in the Bronx, and he defeated Teachout by nearly as a wide a margin. Most likely Cuomo will repeat the huge turnout that Hochul whipped in that election, when Erie County had more ballots cast than all of the other larger metro Upstate counties combined.

Also, it's hard to convey just how empty most of those Upstate counties are in terms of Democratic primaries. Without the big turnout on Hochul's home turf, it's almost negligible.



All of which makes the case that Nixon's NYC-centric campaign isn't necessarily a poor strategy in a Democratic primary. If she were running competitively in Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn, that would be enough to make this a real contest. The trouble with her campaign is that she's campaigning almost exclusively in the city and to a narrow slice of the city's primary voters.

Precisely. I saw a poll from Queens that showed her as total non factor there just barely getting 25 percent.

She's also shown she has little understanding of issues facing Upstate and has little appeal to non whites which are a big part of the primary in NYC. She however disputes that and claims that 70 percent of those they have spoken too in black and latino communities are voting for her contrary to polls showing a overwhelming majority of African Americans and Hispnaic/Latinos are backing Cuomo.

[Tintrlvr]

So, it wouldn't be expected that there'd be a certain protest-vote of sorts against Cuomo upstate? I'm not suggesting she should be able to win up there as a result of it, but I always imagined anybody running against an incumbent Democrat in the state would do better as a result (not to mention that there's a big correlation in general between incumbent support and minority vote-share, or the lack thereof).

Is it reasonable to expect Nixon will do better upstate in general (even if she wins no non-Tompkins counties) than she would in NYC (perhaps save for Manhattan)?

Yes, I think it is likely that Nixon overall does better Upstate than in NYC, mainly because Nixon will be no higher than the mid-teens with non-white voters, which sets a quite low cap on her performance in NYC. She will, however, do much worse Upstate than Teachout did because Nixon isn't really campaigning Upstate and is spending most of her campaign time talking about NYC issues (like the subway) while Teachout campaigned almost exclusively Upstate in 2014 and focused on issues that resonated Upstate, like teachers' unions. It's worth pointing out that, IIRC, Teachout actually *won* the votes cast in the 2014 primary north of Westchester/Rockland. Nixon isn't going to come anywhere close to that performance. She will, however, improve over Teachout's disastrously poor performance in NYC (i.e., she should get at least around 25% in Queens, 30% in Brooklyn, 50% in Manhattan, etc., each at least something of an improvement over Teachout, who got 22%, 27% and 41%, respectively, in those places).

It is also the case that some of rancor against Cuomo Upstate (especially in the Hudson Valley) that was present in 2014 has since faded away, so even if Teachout were running for governor again instead of Nixon and ran the exact same campaign in 2018 as in 2014, I think she would have declined somewhat Upstate, especially in the Albany area.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Nixon wins Erie, a couple random other counties, and some areas of NYC. As much as I want her to upset Cuomo, my expectations aren't that high.

Cuomo: 62%
Nixon: 37%
Other: 1%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL not only does Nixon has no chance of winning Erie, it might be her worst county Upstate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

It's almost the same 49 counties that Bernie won. Only 4 differences out of 62.

[Beet]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo won every single county.

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo won every single county.

I'm not sure what would be more surprising, Cuomo winning Tompkins County or Nixon winning overall.

[Littlefinger]

Predictions for IDC vs. Democrats state senate primaries tomorrow?

Mine are:

District 11: Tossup (Liu if forced to choose)
District 13:  Likely Ramos
District 20: Lean Myrie
District 23: Likely Savino/IDC
District 31: Likely Jackson
District 34: Tossup (Biaggi if forced to choose)
District 38: Lean Carlucci/IDC
District 53: Likely Valesky/IDC

[junior chįmp]

Predictions for IDC vs. Democrats state senate primaries tomorrow?

Mine are:

District 11: Tossup (Liu if forced to choose)
District 13:  Likely Ramos
District 20: Lean Myrie
District 23: Likely Savino/IDC
District 31: Likely Jackson
District 34: Tossup (Biaggi if forced to choose)
District 38: Lean Carlucci/IDC
District 53: Likely Valesky/IDC

Its hard to predict the end result but I just really want to see Klein go down in flames.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Predictions for IDC vs. Democrats state senate primaries tomorrow?

Liu, Ramos, Myrie, Robinson, Jackson, Biaggi and maybe May win. In that case, Carlucci is the only IDC member that survives.

[Duke of York]

Nixon wins Erie, a couple random other counties, and some areas of NYC. As much as I want her to upset Cuomo, my expectations aren't that high.

Cuomo: 62%
Nixon: 37%
Other: 1%

Nixon has no chance of winning Erie. Its county seat is Buffalo and its were Hochul is from.

[Beet]

The Cuomoslide is probably going to drag the IDC over the top tomorrow. I don't expect Forum D's to be very happy in 24 hours.

[Duke of York]

The Cuomoslide is probably going to drag the IDC over the top tomorrow. I don't expect Forum D's to be very happy in 24 hours.

That’s very unlikely.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The Cuomoslide is probably going to drag the IDC over the top tomorrow. I don't expect Forum D's to be very happy in 24 hours.

Nah, most of the left's energy has been focused on the IDC races. I'd say it's more likely the opposite happens and the anti-IDC candidates push Nixon over the edge.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Change research find a three way race for AG Democratic Primary

Zephyr Teachout 28%
Letitia James 27%
Sean Patrick Maloney 26%
Leecia Eve 3%
Undecided 16%

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/change-research-poll-finds-tight-democratic-primary-for-ny-ag-b5bb60752db6

[IceSpear]

Change research find a three way race for AG Democratic Primary

Zephyr Teachout 28%
Letitia James 27%
Sean Patrick Maloney 26%
Leecia Eve 3%
Undecided 16%

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/change-research-poll-finds-tight-democratic-primary-for-ny-ag-b5bb60752db6

I'm fine with all three of them, but I'd probably vote for Teachout if I lived in NY. I've always liked her for having the guts to go against Cuomo and actually put up a decent performance, and since I'm a neoliberal shill I do whatever the NYT tells me to anyway.

[SPQR]

What does IDC stand for exactly?

[Duke of York]

The Cuomoslide is probably going to drag the IDC over the top tomorrow. I don't expect Forum D's to be very happy in 24 hours.

Nah, most of the left's energy has been focused on the IDC races. I'd say it's more likely the opposite happens and the anti-IDC candidates push Nixon over the edge.

That’s not going to happen.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I voted for first time ever just a few minutes ago. It felt great!

[Zaybay]

What does IDC stand for exactly?

In name: Independent Democratic Caucus

In principle: Screwing over the Liberal Dems/all the Dems and siding with the Republicans

[StateBoiler]

NY State of Politics:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If Nixon loses the primary, withdraws by running for an Assembly seat with the intention of losing on purpose, and then the Working Families Party try to nominate Cuomo for governor after everything that has occurred, the WFP are spineless spineless cowards. You can't even use the "not split the vote" excuse, no one thinks Molinaro can win.