Actress Cynthia Nixon of Sex and the City to run for NY Governor

[Mr. Smith]

Lox or smoked salmon is delicious on a plain bagel with cream cheese.

Agreed. I'm not a fan of capers, but I can see why some people would like them.

It's the cinnamon raisin part that's absolutely throwing me for a loop.

^this, the reason people are having a cow is b/c the Canonical Order is everything bagel, schmear, capers, onions, tomato. It's the bagel choice that's the problem.

u serious?

No kidding, should be Sun-dried tomato for a bagel. That or Garlic or Asiago.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm sure Nixon will at least carry Tompkins County. Teachout cracked 70% there, and even Hillary's opponent in 2006 cracked 40% there (he lost 84-16 overall.) It's also the only county Obama won against Hillary in 2008, and he won it handily by 18 points.

Is there any reason why Tompkins always votes absurdly different than the rest of the state in D primaries?

Ultra liberal college kids in Ithaca.

It's not just kids. Universities have staff (e.g., professors, research staff, supporting staff, admin, graduate students) plus university towns employ lots of people who provide services to universities/employees thereof where they'd have a hard time doing that elsewhere. For example, research labs not associated with the school, or people working in recreation/other services targeted towards wealthier, more educated clients.

tldr university does not just equal students

[Kodak]

I'm sure Nixon will at least carry Tompkins County. Teachout cracked 70% there, and even Hillary's opponent in 2006 cracked 40% there (he lost 84-16 overall.) It's also the only county Obama won against Hillary in 2008, and he won it handily by 18 points.

Is there any reason why Tompkins always votes absurdly different than the rest of the state in D primaries?

Ultra liberal college kids in Ithaca.

It's not just kids. Universities have staff (e.g., professors, research staff, supporting staff, admin, graduate students) plus university towns employ lots of people who provide services to universities/employees thereof where they'd have a hard time doing that elsewhere. For example, research labs not associated with the school, or people working in recreation/other services targeted towards wealthier, more educated clients.

tldr university does not just equal students

If anything, college students make up a fairly small minority of college town voters when you account for youth turnout.

[CatoMinor]

The only thing a bagel ever needs is strawberry cream cheese. New York deserves better.

[Badger]

The only thing a bagel ever needs is strawberry cream cheese. New York deserves better.

Lies!

[CatoMinor]

The only thing a bagel ever needs is strawberry cream cheese. New York deserves better.

Lies!

Well maybe they don't deserve better, but strawberry cream cheese is still the pinnacle of toppings.

[BudgieForce]

The only thing a bagel ever needs is strawberry cream cheese. New York deserves better.

Booooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Duke of York]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

That seems about right, but I'm gonna hold out hope for #NixonOver40.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

I guess something like this:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does anybody know in which parts of NY state she has been campaigning?
Where is she out canvassing for votes today?

[Duke of York]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

I guess something like this:

That’s quite doubtful as he won most of eastern New York and the north country last time. That would be a much narrower result than polls have been showing. That almost seems like a mirror image of the presidental primary in New York in 2016. That’s not going to be replicated by Nixon

[Badger]

The only thing a bagel ever needs is strawberry cream cheese. New York deserves better.

Lies!

LIES!!! #lox4ever

[Duke of York]

Nixon isn't going to win over 40. She's also not likely to win more counties than you can count on one hand. The factors that led Teachout to do so well in the Hudson Valley and Capital Region aren't in play in the same way, and Nixon probably won't even do well in the Upstate counties where almost no one votes in Democratic primaries.

You hit the nail on the head. She's going to win a few upstate counties but probably way less than Teachout. Tomkins is a given and possibly Albany and Saratoga  but other than that I don't know.

[junior chįmp]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

[Tintrlvr]

Does anybody know in which parts of NY state she has been campaigning?
Where is she out canvassing for votes today?

Nixon has been campaigning almost exclusively in NYC. This is why she will do better in Manhattan and in NYC generally than Teachout but much worse than Teachout (who was Upstate-focused) Upstate. People seem to be trying to apply a uniform swing on 2014, which is foolish because Nixon and Teachout are very different candidates, and Cuomo's popularity has also shifted somewhat since 2014 (recovery Upstate but decline in NYC).

[Tintrlvr]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

Upstate opens at noon?!? I had no idea. Bizarre.

[Duke of York]

Does anybody know in which parts of NY state she has been campaigning?
Where is she out canvassing for votes today?

Nixon has been campaigning almost exclusively in NYC. This is why she will do better in Manhattan and in NYC generally than Teachout but much worse than Teachout (who was Upstate-focused) Upstate. People seem to be trying to apply a uniform swing on 2014, which is foolish because Nixon and Teachout are very different candidates, and Cuomo's popularity has also shifted somewhat since 2014 (recovery Upstate but decline in NYC).

'
do you think she will win any boroughs? how much better do you think she will do? The only one she has probably has a chance in is Manhattan. 

[Tintrlvr]

Does anybody know in which parts of NY state she has been campaigning?
Where is she out canvassing for votes today?

Nixon has been campaigning almost exclusively in NYC. This is why she will do better in Manhattan and in NYC generally than Teachout but much worse than Teachout (who was Upstate-focused) Upstate. People seem to be trying to apply a uniform swing on 2014, which is foolish because Nixon and Teachout are very different candidates, and Cuomo's popularity has also shifted somewhat since 2014 (recovery Upstate but decline in NYC).

'
do you think she will win any boroughs? how much better do you think she will do? The only one she has probably has a chance in is Manhattan.  

I think Nixon wins Manhattan and comes nowhere close to winning anywhere else in the city. No one in Manhattan knew who Zephyr Teachout was in 2014, yet she got 41% of the vote, purely as an anti-Cuomo protest vote from people who had no idea what she stood for. Nixon is focusing a lot more energy and time on Manhattan and should be able to win it. But she is winning white voters (specifically, liberal white yuppies, so not the sort of whites in southern Brooklyn/outer Queens/the South Shore of Staten Island) almost exclusively, which prevents her from making any real headway in the other boroughs.

[Adam Griffin]

So, it wouldn't be expected that there'd be a certain protest-vote of sorts against Cuomo upstate? I'm not suggesting she should be able to win up there as a result of it, but I always imagined anybody running against an incumbent Democrat in the state would do better as a result (not to mention that there's a big correlation in general between incumbent support and minority vote-share, or the lack thereof).

Is it reasonable to expect Nixon will do better upstate in general (even if she wins no non-Tompkins counties) than she would in NYC (perhaps save for Manhattan)?

[IceSpear]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

I guess something like this:

That’s quite doubtful as he won most of eastern New York and the north country last time. That would be a much narrower result than polls have been showing. That almost seems like a mirror image of the presidental primary in New York in 2016. That’s not going to be replicated by Nixon

That literally is a mirror image of the 2016 primary, haha. He just pasted the Atlas map of that race.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

I guess something like this:

That’s quite doubtful as he won most of eastern New York and the north country last time. That would be a much narrower result than polls have been showing. That almost seems like a mirror image of the presidental primary in New York in 2016. That’s not going to be replicated by Nixon

That literally is a mirror image of the 2016 primary, haha. He just pasted the Atlas map of that race.

🤫 🤭 😁

[Duke of York]

So what is everyones prediction for the primary? I predict Cuomo winning somewhere around 65 percent

I guess something like this:

That’s quite doubtful as he won most of eastern New York and the north country last time. That would be a much narrower result than polls have been showing. That almost seems like a mirror image of the presidental primary in New York in 2016. That’s not going to be replicated by Nixon

That literally is a mirror image of the 2016 primary, haha. He just pasted the Atlas map of that race.

I thought it was and I meant to say Western  New York. I knew that map looked familiar

[cinyc]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

Upstate opens at noon?!? I had no idea. Bizarre.

Someone should challenge this and all other unequal poll opening/closing hours as unconstitutional. There is zero reason why rural voters should have less acess to the polls than urban voters.

[Duke of York]

If you want to know how insanely bad NY's election laws are:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1039882192959270917

Upstate opens at noon?!? I had no idea. Bizarre.

Someone should challenge this and all other unequal poll opening/closing hours as unconstitutional. There is zero reason why rural voters should have less acess to the polls than urban voters.

I agree polling locations should be uniform. On what grounds is it unconstitutional though?  Elections are state run.