Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[KingSweden]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

Apparently there was a noticeable uptick for Moser in election day voting vs early voting and absentee voting and Westin led Moser in absentee voting: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17084808/dccc-laura-moser-texas-democratic-primary-2018

Yes the DCCC should be concerned with these primary. Democratic primary voters have always been known to be pragmatic and calculated. I hope the Our Revolution and Justice crowd don't hurt our chances this year.

I do t know about *concerned* but I hope they at least learned their lesson

[Gass3268]

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A couple other fringe competitive districts that I calculated:

TX-02 (North Harris County): 46,140 GOP, 28,598 Dem
TX-03 (Collin County): 53,712 GOP, 31,181 Dem
TX-06 (Tarrant County-South Metroplex): 45,519 GOP, 29,389 Dem   
TX-21 (Austin-San Antonio-Hill Country): 65,832 GOP, 50,664 Dem

[LimoLiberal]

My endorsements:

TX-07 - Lizzie Fletcher
TX-21 - Joseph Kopser
TX-23 - Gina Ortiz-Jones
TX-32 - Collin Allred

[Gass3268]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

Apparently there was a noticeable uptick for Moser in election day voting vs early voting and absentee voting and Westin led Moser in absentee voting: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17084808/dccc-laura-moser-texas-democratic-primary-2018

Yes the DCCC should be concerned with these primary. Democratic primary voters have always been known to be pragmatic and calculated. I hope the Our Revolution and Justice crowd don't hurt our chances this year.

I do t know about *concerned* but I hope they at least learned their lesson

In the future if they want to squelch a primary campaign they should just dump some money into a shady SuperPac and let them do the dirty work. /s

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What if all this action by the DCCC was to inoculate the voters on Moser's weaknesses and actually boost her over Westin (the real progressive)? It's the reverse McCaskill strategy. Moser, though she might be the "Sanders" of this race, showed in her contempt for Texas, that she's just as much a coastal elite as any DNC-favoured candidate.  The run-off is between an anti-union shill and a snob. Pick your poison of which Hillary you want, 7th District Dems.

[YE]

What if all this action by the DCCC was to inoculate the voters on Moser's weaknesses and actually boost her over Westin (the real progressive)? It's the reverse McCaskill strategy. Moser, though she might be the "Sanders" of this race, showed in her contempt for Texas, that she's just as much a coastal elite as any DNC-favoured candidate.  The run-off is between an anti-union shill and a snob. Pick your poison of which Hillary you want, 7th District Dems.

Maybe come to think about it as Moser is likely more electable than Westin, and it worked since Moser happened to be a Justice Dem. FWIW, the DCCC said about Moser not liking the entire state of Texas has been disproven yet some people keep repeating it on this thread.  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What if all this action by the DCCC was to inoculate the voters on Moser's weaknesses and actually boost her over Westin (the real progressive)? It's the reverse McCaskill strategy. Moser, though she might be the "Sanders" of this race, showed in her contempt for Texas, that she's just as much a coastal elite as any DNC-favoured candidate.  The run-off is between an anti-union shill and a snob. Pick your poison of which Hillary you want, 7th District Dems.

Maybe come to think about it as Moser is likely more electable than Westin, and it worked since Moser happened to be a Justice Dem. FWIW, the DCCC said about Moser not liking the entire state of Texas has been disproven yet some people keep repeating it on this thread.  

Optics are everything. I've yet to see Moser herself defend against the attacks. She has a Twitter; she's not using it to make her case.

[Roronoa D. Law]

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A couple other fringe competitive districts that I calculated:

TX-02 (North Harris County): 46,140 GOP, 28,598 Dem
TX-03 (Collin County): 53,712 GOP, 31,181 Dem
TX-06 (Tarrant County-South Metroplex): 45,519 GOP, 29,389 Dem   
TX-21 (Austin-San Antonio-Hill Country): 65,832 GOP, 50,664 Dem

So using turnout differences as partisan votes the change from Clinton 16 is
TX-07: +5
TX-23: +9
TX-32: +0.5
TX-02: -5
TX-03: -3
TX-06: -3
TX-21: +1

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A couple other fringe competitive districts that I calculated:

TX-02 (North Harris County): 46,140 GOP, 28,598 Dem
TX-03 (Collin County): 53,712 GOP, 31,181 Dem
TX-06 (Tarrant County-South Metroplex): 45,519 GOP, 29,389 Dem   
TX-21 (Austin-San Antonio-Hill Country): 65,832 GOP, 50,664 Dem

So using turnout differences as partisan votes the change from Clinton 16 is
TX-07: +5
TX-23: +9
TX-32: +0.5
TX-02: -5
TX-03: -3
TX-06: -3
TX-21: +1

Consistent with a 2 seat pickup. Looking good.

[Former Kentuckian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A couple other fringe competitive districts that I calculated:

TX-02 (North Harris County): 46,140 GOP, 28,598 Dem
TX-03 (Collin County): 53,712 GOP, 31,181 Dem
TX-06 (Tarrant County-South Metroplex): 45,519 GOP, 29,389 Dem   
TX-21 (Austin-San Antonio-Hill Country): 65,832 GOP, 50,664 Dem

So using turnout differences as partisan votes the change from Clinton 16 is
TX-07: +5
TX-23: +9
TX-32: +0.5
TX-02: -5
TX-03: -3
TX-06: -3
TX-21: +1

Interesting. Thanks for this.

[Shadows]

Apart from Moser, Vanessa Adia & Adrienne Bell won the primaries outright in TX-12 & TX-14 respectively.

Rick Trevino is probably headed to the run-off in TX-23. That is a lot of Justice Democrats !

[KingSweden]

I think we’re on pace for a good night in TX in 8 months, good night being 2 House pickups and netting some leg seats. A great night is +3 in the House (with the 32nd being the pickup) and a fantastic night is 4 and above (right now I struggle to see what that 4th seat would be) plus the Senate seat

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I love it. The progressive candidates did really well. Take that dccc leadership!

[mencken]

Why is the 32nd not considered more competitive (even compared to the 7th), considering the Republicans and Democrats just about tied in the primary there last night?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

"Labor Rallies Behind Laura Moser after she overcomes party effort to stomp out her Congressional bid"

Please cite a credible source.  At this point, The Intercept is pretty clearly run by a group of useful idiots (ex: Glenn Greenwald) doing the Kremlin's bidding.  Maybe what the article says is true and maybe it isn't, but these are the same folks who claim among other things that the Russia investigation is a conspiracy to discredit Trump through a McCarthyist plot invented by the Democratic establishment (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/glenn-greenwald-russia-investigation.html) and who are calling for Democrats to nominate one of the random some dudes running against Jeff Van Drew in NJ-2 (https://theintercept.com/2018/02/23/teen-confronts-dccc-endorsed-candidate-over-his-100-percent-nra-rating/).  Their "commentary" on House races consists largely of promoting unelectable candidates like Moser and churning out hit pieces against strong Democratic recruits.  

They're either deliberately collaborating with Russian efforts to influence the 2018 elections to benefit the Republican Party or (more likely) they're simply too caught up in some sort of dumb fringe ideological nonsense to realize they are being used.  At best, they're about as credible as Breitbart.com.  In any event, they certainly shouldn't be treated as a remotely credible in terms of their claims about U.S. politics.

What if all this action by the DCCC was to inoculate the voters on Moser's weaknesses and actually boost her over Westin (the real progressive)? It's the reverse McCaskill strategy. Moser, though she might be the "Sanders" of this race, showed in her contempt for Texas, that she's just as much a coastal elite as any DNC-favoured candidate.  The run-off is between an anti-union shill and a snob. Pick your poison of which Hillary you want, 7th District Dems.

Maybe come to think about it as Moser is likely more electable than Westin, and it worked since Moser happened to be a Justice Dem. FWIW, the DCCC said about Moser not liking the entire state of Texas has been disproven yet some people keep repeating it on this thread.  

I mean, I'm not thrilled with Fletcher or Moser, but I'll take the electable candidate.  Moser was certainly the least electable of the four main Democratic candidates in this race given her blatant racism, cultural elitism, animosity towards organized religion, etc, etc.  Also Fletcher isn't an anti-union shill.  I initially thought that too, but after doing more research it looks like she had nothing to do with the case folks have been referring to aside from the fact that it was handled by a law firm where she has been employed (IDK if Fletcher was even working there at the time).

[Ebsy]

Labor unions are essentially a nonfactor in Texas politics.

[Nyvin]

Why is the 32nd not considered more competitive (even compared to the 7th), considering the Republicans and Democrats just about tied in the primary there last night?

Probably since Pete Sessions is seen as the stronger incumbent compared to Culberson and Hurd

[OSR stands with Israel]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

No she made gains in the margins due to many Never Trump Republicans voting for Gary Johnson

[OSR stands with Israel]

From another forum:

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Cruz was basically running unopposed

[Landslide Lyndon]

That Trevino guy seems as charming and gracious as anybody would expect from a Bernie bro.

https://therivardreport.com/congressional-district-23-primary-election-results-2018/

Treviño said that slates are clean going into the runoff election.

“If I work hard and I am able to organize, I will be able to beat Gina,” whom he referred to as “just another [Washington], D.C.-chosen candidate with powerful friends who picked her even before speaking to the people who live in the district.”

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just as I did for the 2016 Presidential, I'll be maintaining a map of which party had higher turnout in each state's Senate Primary. For 2016, while certain individual states were incorrect, the map overall was correct in predicting a Trump Victory.

In the Texas primaries yesterday, all Republicans outpolled all Democrats by 59.8%-40.2%. So our map is thus:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

No she made gains in the margins due to many Never Trump Republicans voting for Gary Johnson

I mean, a lot of Republicans in TX also crossed over for Hillary. You don't just go from -17 to -9 because of Gary Johnson (who only got 3% of the vote). Some of the suburban districts shifted over 20 points over for Hillary.

There was a pretty big margin shift (17 point margin shift in fact) among college educated whites to Hillary, so yeah, Hillary did make gains due to college educated whites.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

This just goes to show that money doesn't buy you votes like it used to.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This just goes to show that money doesn't buy you votes like it used to.

To be fair, money was never particularly good at buying votes. Plenty of candidates have gotten vastly outspent and still won.

[Nyvin]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

No she made gains in the margins due to many Never Trump Republicans voting for Gary Johnson

That makes no sense.   In 2012 Obama got 3,308,124 votes in Texas, in 2016 Hillary got 3,877,868.    The Republican vote barely changed from 4,569,843 Romney to 4,685,047 Trump (while the state gained over 2 million people in those four years inbetween).


Gary Johnson's vote total only went up by 200k,  even if you add all those to Trump's total (which is not statistically correct, but let's just say it is), the state still would've trended Dem.   And that ignores that Jill Stein's vote total went up by 45k as well.