Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!
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  Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!
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Author Topic: Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!  (Read 81064 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #850 on: October 31, 2018, 02:22:35 AM »

Imma going to go with Occam and say Orman is staying in because he's a narcissistic dick.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #851 on: October 31, 2018, 12:22:21 PM »

Imma going to go with Occam and say Orman is staying in because he's a narcissistic dick.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #852 on: October 31, 2018, 12:45:44 PM »

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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #853 on: October 31, 2018, 01:46:44 PM »

Who is more deplorable, KKKris KKKobach or KKKonfederate KKKorey?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #854 on: October 31, 2018, 02:10:58 PM »

Who is more deplorable, KKKris KKKobach or KKKonfederate KKKorey?
Kobach.  KKKorey doesn't have the power to depress voting like the other guy does.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #855 on: October 31, 2018, 02:29:28 PM »

Thank goodness for Orman; without him those "moderate" Republicans voting for him would likely have found their way back home to Kobach because he has an (R) next to his name.

Polls showed most Orman voters have Kelly as their second choice.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #856 on: October 31, 2018, 08:13:57 PM »

Who is more deplorable, KKKris KKKobach or KKKonfederate KKKorey?
Kobach.  KKKorey doesn't have the power to depress voting like the other guy does.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #857 on: November 01, 2018, 06:20:41 PM »

K.C. Star endorses Kelly as the "clear choice".
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #858 on: November 01, 2018, 07:34:54 PM »

I have never listened to Orman speak until just now, and my God, his voice is annoying.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #859 on: November 01, 2018, 09:46:47 PM »

I have never listened to Orman speak until just now, and my God, his voice is annoying.

Yeah, I figured that out way back in 2014. Tongue
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #860 on: November 02, 2018, 12:14:34 PM »

I have never listened to Orman speak until just now, and my God, his voice is annoying.
When I heard he was going off the airwaves, my first thought was "Oh good, I don't have to hear his voice anymore.'
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #861 on: November 05, 2018, 10:22:38 PM »

My final predictions:

Governor
Laura Kelly: 45%
Kris Kobach: 43%
Greg Orman: 10%

1st District
Roger Marshall: 66%
Alan LaPolice: 31%

2nd District
Steve Watkins: 48%
Paul Davis: 46%

3rd District
Sharice Davids: 50%
Kevin Yoder: 46%

4th District
Ron Estes: 56%
James Thompson: 41%

Secretary of State
Scott Schwab: 53%
Brian McClendon: 44%

Attorney General
Derek Schmidt: 63%
Sarah Swain: 37%

State Treasurer
Jake LaTurner: 56%
Marci Francisco: 44%

Insurance Commissioner
Vicki Schmidt: 62%
Nathan McLaughlin: 38%
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jimrtex
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« Reply #862 on: November 06, 2018, 12:33:47 PM »

Dodge City, a majority Hispanic city with 27,000 residents, has one polling place.  It has been moved outside the city limits to a location a mile walk from the nearest bus stop.

https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html

I am sure there are legitimate reasons for this that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. /s
I completely think the fact that there is only one polling place is voter suppression, I haven't heard any argument that adequately defends this. I do know that the local elections office has been strongly encouraging early voting, sending out advance ballot applications to everyone with English and Spanish instructions. Also, it had to be moved from it's previous location because of construction, though I have a hard time believing they couldn't find a better location (such as a school gym).
Ford County has used a centralized voting location for Dodge City and 8 surrounding townships for 20 years.  Ford County also has polling locations in Bucklin, Spearman, and Ford City for townships in the eastern part of the county. Bucklin is 27 miles from Dodge City, and the polling place serves townships along US 34. Spearman is 17 miles from Dodge City, and Ford City is a similar distance. Bucklin and Spearman are in different school districts from Dodge City.

Using combined polling places for multiple precincts is not unusual in Kansas, which has lots of small townships and particularly strict laws on election precincts, which must respect many boundaries, including local ward boundaries.  Elections are administered at the county level in Kansas, including elections for township and city offices. I know that Sedgwick County (Wichita) uses larger polling places, including some that include precincts inside and outside the city. You might be able to find a better location with lots of parking and a larger church that was designed for drive-in parishioners. Larger polling places may be more efficient. Instead of poll workers crocheting or playing cards while waiting for a voter to appear, they can be continuously processing voters. They may be better trained and staffed. At some polling sites you may have a clerk who remembers Little Bobby Dole and may not realize that some election procedure has changed.

Unusual for Dodge City is the size of the single polling location. Finney County and Garden City have similar population to Ford County and Dodge City, but there are six voting locations. OTOH, most voters outside Garden City share a polling place with city voters at the fairgrounds  (not sure whether this is inside the city limits or not). OTOOH most of voters outside Garden City have to drive to the fairgrounds where they constitute 3/4 of the voters in a "city" precinct. OTOOOH, most of these voters are in townships just outside the city limits. Most of the truly rural townships might only have 50-100 voters, and perhaps no suitable polling places (any one room school houses might have been abandoned, not maintained or converted to other uses. There might be a barn for road equipment with perhaps an office. For example, Royal Township in Ford County has 105 residents. Its budget is around $100,000 with about half that going for paying off the debt for the grader, truck, and loader. The rest presumably goes for wages for equipment operators, maintenance, and fuel). In Garden City, none of the polling places are in schools. Four are in churches, one is at the county fairgrounds 4-H building, and one at the library. Churches will often have meeting rooms outside the sanctuary that are only used on Sunday and Wednesday. Schools have classes on Tuesdays. There may be little parking beyond that used by teachers and staff. Schools have security issues, while polling places are traditionally open.

Ford County consolidated to a single polling location in Dodge City about 20 years ago, reportedly because polling places at schools were not ADA compliant. Dodge City is at the cross-roads of several US highways. Originally, they went through town down Wyatt Earp Blvd, but loops around the north and south side of the city have been developed. Most of the expansion of the city has been to the north, where the wealthiest areas are. The southern part of the city is across the railroad tracks AND separated by the Arkansas River (flood plain). This area has the largest Hispanic concentration (two of the three elementary schools in the city with 90% Hispanic enrollment are in this area (the lowest percentages are around 65%). That is, the polling place was moved to the poorer more Hispanic part of the city.  The claim by the Kansas ACLU that it is near a wealthier, whiter country club is so false as to be regarded as malicious.

On the northern loop are the casino and a 5300-seat arena, and the new High School. They are located here because they are accessible and there was lots of land for parking. The old high school appears to be landlocked. The southern loop has the Western Bank Expo center which is county owned. Its big event is the 3i show (the three I's are industry, implements, and irrigation) and the adjacent Dodge City Raceway Park (3/8 mile dirt oval). Most of the shows at the Civic Center appear to have moved out to the United Wireless Arena adjacent to the casino.

The main employers in Dodge City are two meatpacking plants, each with around 2500 employees. The next largest is a Walmart with 400 employees. As you would expect, the meatpacking plants are downstream from the city, though they have been annexed into the city. Perhaps the city gets tax revenue and charges them for connecting into the sewer system. There is an industrial park and airport which are exclaves of the city. Whether an area is inside the "city limits" or not may have nothing to do with proximity to the "city", but some other policy reason.

The school district, which includes areas outside the city limits, is planning on constructing a new administration building connected to the Civic Center, which is owned by the school district. At the September board of education meeting, the condition of the existing administration building was discussed. The building is literally losing bricks, the chimney for the boiler does not meet code, and would fall into the building if it collapsed. The building is not ADA compliant. While the board was OK with the money spent for diagnosing the problem (metal beams over the windows are twisting causing bricks on the outside of the building to be pushed out) they were concerned about any sort of major repairs, particularly if that forced bringing the building up to code or make it ADA compliant, since they would be into the new building within 18 months. There is a Kansas Heritage Center archive in the building, which the district has come to be responsible for. They have reached agreement to move the collection and responsibility to the library.

At the October board meeting, they made a phone call to someone at the Kansas education authority (the president dialed a number and kept getting a busy signal, so the superintendent came over, and put in his pin code, and said what's the number, and the president picked up a piece of paper and turned it, and the superintendent then punched the number, and they connected and put the call on speaker phone). The conversation was about financing and spec'ing the new administration building and improvements to the football stadium, which they want to have completed by a June 2019 HS all-star football game. I had the impression that the superintendent had talked to the state guy, and wanted the board to hear what he had to say. There was an emphasis that the plans had to be spec'ed out, so they could be bid.  There must be a state law requiring bidding of any capital project over a certain dollar amount. It was also mentioned that the concepts for the new administration building had expanded, adding several million dollars to the estimates. From other documents it appears that they have reached the limits of their debt authority, but can squeeze by using some reserves and current funds. It was also indicated that the school district could undertake the two projects (new admin building and stadium separately, so long as each were spec'ed out. There is currently a bid packet out on the stadium (for design).

It is unclear why the school district believed that the new admin building would be under construction by October. Maybe they were optimistic., or perhaps they could do preliminary work such as taking up site work without completing plans or funding. But the school district did send a site plan showing the parking area at the Civic Center being unavailable. If you are going to have 5000 voters on election day, having a lot of parking is the key.

Voters had to be given notice 30 days before the election (October 7). So a new location had to be found.

The Casino probably has the parking (it has a 5300 seat arena) but is dubious as a location for public elections. It is also on the outskirts of town. The packing plants have enough parking if there are no workers and no cattle to be processed. The airport might not have enough parking, unless you parked on the tarmac (Dodge City has two flights daily to Denver by 9-seat turboprop). The High School has enough parking, but it is used by students, and it is not particularly close to the buildings.

Walmart, Hobby Lobby, and the strip center south of Hobby Lobby have enough parking, but it might be problematic finding room within the stores for voting and sharing doorways. The stores might have problems with political campaigning outside. If there were an empty store in the strip center that might be an option.

That leaves the Expo Center, which is a modern building designed for public events with lots of parking and an open space for holding the elections inside and is owned by the county. It is at the intersection of two US Highways. Timewise it is closer to the meatpacking plants (5000 workers) than the Civic Center (as indicated in the plaintiffs own evidence). While there may be some workers who rely on public transportation, the parking lots are 95% full in satellite images. Concern about the railroad tracks is misrepresented since there are overpasses on either end of town (the meatpacking plants are on the south side of the tracks).

That it is slightly beyond the city limits is really irrelevant given that 21% of the voters are from outside the city.

Notice to voters were sent out in September. Some were returned as undelivered. The plaintiffs evidence that some were undelivered was the email from the county clerk to the Democratic Party Chair asking his help in getting the word out. The move was also publicized in local newspaper and radio stations.

A voter may also check his registration at

Your guide to Kansas elections.

Op-Ed from County Administrator

As the judge noted, if the ACLU or LULAC were truly concerned about a single voting location, they had 20 years to address the "issue".
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GMantis
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« Reply #863 on: November 06, 2018, 01:17:38 PM »

Also, I wonder how many of the Hispanic voters in Dodge city even have the right to vote, considering how recently most of them must have arrived (and assuming this was legally).
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #864 on: November 06, 2018, 11:55:04 PM »

Democrats outperforming a bit but pretty happy with my predictions, it looks like I got every race right. There will be longterm benefits for Republicans with Kobach's defeat, will be interesting to see how both sides move forward.

Johnson County was brutal for Republicans. The party will need to regroup and figure out how to win back suburban voters (here and across the country).
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #865 on: November 07, 2018, 11:52:09 AM »

My final predictions:

Governor
Laura Kelly: 45%
Kris Kobach: 43%
Greg Orman: 10%

1st District
Roger Marshall: 66%
Alan LaPolice: 31%

2nd District
Steve Watkins: 48%
Paul Davis: 46%

3rd District
Sharice Davids: 50%
Kevin Yoder: 46%

4th District
Ron Estes: 56%
James Thompson: 41%

Secretary of State
Scott Schwab: 53%
Brian McClendon: 44%

Attorney General
Derek Schmidt: 63%
Sarah Swain: 37%

State Treasurer
Jake LaTurner: 56%
Marci Francisco: 44%

Insurance Commissioner
Vicki Schmidt: 62%
Nathan McLaughlin: 38%
Quoting this again because now that 100% of precincts are reporting, I basically nailed these spot-on! Shocked If only my Senatorial and Gubernatorial predictions were as accurate!!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #866 on: November 07, 2018, 12:00:23 PM »

Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach was definitely one of the highlights last night.
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RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm
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« Reply #867 on: November 07, 2018, 12:34:22 PM »

Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach was definitely one of the highlights last night.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #868 on: November 07, 2018, 12:36:28 PM »

Quoting this again because now that 100% of precincts are reporting, I basically nailed these spot-on! Shocked If only my Senatorial and Gubernatorial predictions were as accurate!!

Congrats Tongue
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #869 on: November 07, 2018, 03:59:52 PM »

Kelly beating KKKobach almost made up for Gillum losing. Almost.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #870 on: November 07, 2018, 04:42:50 PM »

Kelly beating KKKobach almost made up for Gillum losing. Almost.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #871 on: November 08, 2018, 01:33:10 AM »

What happened with Gallagher and Rooker? Both were among most moderate (even liberal) members of Kansas legislature, even more liberal then some Democrats. In fact, present legislature (with Republicans gaining  a seat mostly because of wins in some rural areas, and Democrats - mostly at the expense of moderates in suburban) may be even a shadow more conservative then previous.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #872 on: November 08, 2018, 07:09:22 AM »

Really sad Davis couldn't pull it out. He was so close.
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windjammer
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« Reply #873 on: November 08, 2018, 07:47:53 AM »

Tmthforu,
The democrats + the anti brownback republicans now have a majority in both chambers, correct?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #874 on: November 08, 2018, 09:14:48 AM »

Tmthforu,
The democrats + the anti brownback republicans now have a majority in both chambers, correct?

Good question. While we wait for answer would say "not sure", because most of Democratic gains came from suburbs (Johnston county), and Republicans there are frequently moderate. So the "plus" was very limited....
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