Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Tmthforu,
The democrats + the anti brownback republicans now have a majority in both chambers, correct?

No, not at all. There were no Senate elections this year, currently we have a 30-9 edge in the Senate.

In terms of party affiliation, I believe Democrats actually lost a net of 1 seat. They ran some very poor campaigns in winnable races. Several rural Democrats were wiped out. There were also several primaries back in August where a conservative beat a moderate and then the conservative went on to win this week.

Conservatives actually gained seats in the state, though I haven't been able to tabulate final numbers. Conservatives are somewhere between having a majority and having a super majority, I'm just not certain on the margin yet. Either way, Kelly will not have a super-friendly legislature to work with.

[smoltchanov]

Tmthforu,
The democrats + the anti brownback republicans now have a majority in both chambers, correct?

No, not at all. There were no Senate elections this year, currently we have a 30-9 edge in the Senate.

In terms of party affiliation, I believe Democrats actually lost a net of 1 seat. They ran some very poor campaigns in winnable races. Several rural Democrats were wiped out. There were also several primaries back in August where a conservative beat a moderate and then the conservative went on to win this week.

Conservatives actually gained seats in the state, though I haven't been able to tabulate final numbers. Conservatives are somewhere between having a majority and having a super majority, I'm just not certain on the margin yet. Either way, Kelly will not have a super-friendly legislature to work with.

My thoughts too. 2016 was a banner year for moderate Republicans, this - not so much. And with Democrats beating some moderates in suburbs, they (Democrats) in fact made their task more difficult, not easier

[tmthforu94]

Excellent analysis of legislative elections - both sides picked up 5 seats so composition remains the same. A bad night for moderates, the legislature is now more partisan.

https://gametheoryblog.wixsite.com/gametheory/single-post/2018/11/10/Blue-Trickle-and-Rural-Red-Rout

[smoltchanov]

Excellent analysis of legislative elections - both sides picked up 5 seats so composition remains the same. A bad night for moderates, the legislature is now more partisan.

https://gametheoryblog.wixsite.com/gametheory/single-post/2018/11/10/Blue-Trickle-and-Rural-Red-Rout

Moderates only 1/4 of Republican caucus? Better then after 2012 rout, and much better, then in most states, but after 2016 it was about 35%. Sad, but expected, when you are squeezed from both right and left.. The same in most states. IMHO - liberals doesn't hate conservatives (and vice versa) as much as both hate moderates...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So conservatives still have a veto-proof majority, meaning Kelly is basically powerless? Oh, wonderful.

[President Johnson]

So conservatives still have a veto-proof majority, meaning Kelly is basically powerless? Oh, wonderful.

As far as I know, some Republicans in the Kansas legislature are more moderate and were opposed Brownback. They + Democrats have a majority. Given Kelly's connections in the legislature where she served since 2005, I think she can get things done.

[VPH]

Brent Welder changed his Facebook page's name from "Brent Welder for Congress" to "Brent Welder for Kansas" and just posted an article about Pat Roberts saying "Tick tock Senator Pat Roberts, your time is up in 2020".

I think he's running...

[tmthforu94]

Brent Welder changed his Facebook page's name from "Brent Welder for Congress" to "Brent Welder for Kansas" and just posted an article about Pat Roberts saying "Tick tock Senator Pat Roberts, your time is up in 2020".

I think he's running...

I don't *think* Roberts is going to run for reelection but I don't think think an official decision has been made. My money is on Roger Marshall for the GOP side. That being said, I would LOVE for Welder to run and be the Democratic nominee, I can't see him doing well with moderate Republicans.

Since there are no other statewide/gubernatorial races in 2020, I will create a Kansas megathread in the congressional elections board.

[smoltchanov]

So conservatives still have a veto-proof majority, meaning Kelly is basically powerless? Oh, wonderful.

As far as I know, some Republicans in the Kansas legislature are more moderate and were opposed Brownback. They + Democrats have a majority. Given Kelly's connections in the legislature where she served since 2005, I think she can get things done.

There will be substantially less moderate Republicans in Legislature next year. As i said above - they are constantly under attack both from right and left. Given, that number of Democrats will be lower in the next House too (by 1) - i doubt that new Legislature will pass anything "very progressive". But Kelly's vetoes of "bad legislation" will be sustained.

[tmthforu94]

Rough legislature composition
Conservative Republicans: 64
Moderate Republicans: 21
Democrats: 39

Conservative Republicans take a narrow majority.

[smoltchanov]

Rough legislature composition
Conservative Republicans: 64
Moderate Republicans: 21
Democrats: 39

Conservative Republicans take a narrow majority.

Exactly what i meant. And without Brownback in governor's office (as was in 2016) - "revolt of the moderates" in Republican primary, which we observed that year, is rather unlikely.

[Skill and Chance]

Rough legislature composition
Conservative Republicans: 64
Moderate Republicans: 21
Democrats: 39

Conservative Republicans take a narrow majority.

So veto overrides are probably not in the cards with this breakdown?

[smoltchanov]

Rough legislature composition
Conservative Republicans: 64
Moderate Republicans: 21
Democrats: 39

Conservative Republicans take a narrow majority.

So veto overrides are probably not in the cards with this breakdown?

Probably - yes, but it will be difficult to make something positive as well....

[DINGO Joe]

Don't know if it was ever mentioned before, but I just found out that apparently when Kobach became SoS and move from suburban KC to the Topeka area, he chose to live in the small historic town of Lecompton (pop 600).  Lecompton was famous in the Bloody Kansas territorial days as the stronghold of proslavery forces.  Coincidence?  I doubt it.  Really, I'm surprised Kobach never legally changed his middle name to something starting with a K.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[DINGO Joe]

Well good, it's time for civilized Kansas to throw off the yoke of their racist hick brethren.

[tmthforu94]

Was coming on here to post that - no surprise. Bollier votes to the left of many Democrats and received a lot of backlash for endorsing Davids over Yoder in KS-03. Republicans aren't shedding a tear over her defection.

[lfromnj]

Any chance Sarah Davids does this in Texas. I love the fact Abbot went after someone in a Beto +20 house district. If she gets primaried the district is Safe D.

[Gass3268]

Two more Kansas Republicans switch parties:

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1075395776946335745

[Dr. Arch]

Two more Kansas Republicans switch parties:

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1075395776946335745

#It'sHappening

[smoltchanov]

Two more Kansas Republicans switch parties:

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1075395776946335745

Both are very moderate. More so, then some Democrats, AFAIK. There are few other like them, but Republicans are sure to preserve their majority for at least near (4-6 years) future: western and central Kansas is, generally, very Republican, and - generally conservative too.

[lfromnj]

Why isn't the Kansas gop passing lame duck bills?

[smoltchanov]

Why isn't the Kansas gop passing lame duck bills?

Bad practice. Extremely bad, notwithstanding who does it.

[tmthforu94]

It's usually not good news when people leave your party, but none of these are big surprises. Clayton has been critical of the GOP for several years - I always suspected that she wouldn't make the first move but would jump if others did first. Her seat is pretty Democratic.

Sykes was always going to face a strong primary challenge in 2020 so this move probably improves her reelection chances. The district is still reasonably conservative so I'm suspecting she'll have a tough race coming up.

There are a couple JoCo Republicans that sway between moderate and conservative - I'll become much concerned if any of them flip.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Why isn't the Kansas gop passing lame duck bills?

Wisconsin Republicans are acting because, with the maps they have, they know they won't get punished for it. Same with NC Republicans in 16. Kansas Republicans got punished this year and have had some close scares recently - they know they probably won't withstand it as well as Rs in the other states.