2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[fridgeking]

People who only watch the GCB and pay attention to none of the fundamentals are the worst kind of hacks.

[ON Progressive]

People who only watch the GCB and pay attention to none of the fundamentals are the worst kind of hacks.

[Brittain33]

Because of gerrymandering, I don't think they'll win the House, but I think it's almost certain they'll win the Senate.

That's quite a prediction.

[Gass3268]

PA-01 (Monmouth):

Fitzpatrick 49% - Wallace 42% (RV)
Fitzpatrick 48% - Wallace 47% (LV)
Wallace 48 - Fitzpatrick 47% (LV - Dem Surge)

Source

I really like Monmouth using the different turnout models. Probably a better way to do polling.

[Torie]

Because of gerrymandering, I don't think they'll win the House, but I think it's almost certain they'll win the Senate.

That's quite a prediction.

Particularly since the Senate lines are gerrymandered as it were. . I wonder if WV was divided from Virginia in order to make Virginia a Dem state about 150 years later.

[Torie]

PA-01 (Monmouth):

Fitzpatrick 49% - Wallace 42% (RV)
Fitzpatrick 48% - Wallace 47% (LV)
Wallace 48 - Fitzpatrick 47% (LV - Dem Surge)

Source

Usually the Pub does better rather than worse with LV's versus RV's.  That suggests a malaise problem for the Pubs, or maybe an indicator that the SES profile of Pub voters on average as fallen in the Trump era, or both. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Thank god. Finally a high quality pollster.

Looks like PA-01 is a tossup with Fitzpatrick slightly favored

I hope Monmouth does a bunch of other polls.

[Gass3268]

Thank god. Finally a high quality pollster.

Looks like PA-01 is a tossup with Fitzpatrick slightly favored

I hope Monmouth does a bunch of other polls.

Basically this poll looks like Bucks County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thank god. Finally a high quality pollster.

Looks like PA-01 is a tossup with Fitzpatrick slightly favored

I hope Monmouth does a bunch of other polls.

I think this was the first of a dozen competitive districts they're planning to do.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP party favorability is 43-47

Dem party favorability is 44-44

That's... unusually high for both parties.

[Devils30]

Wallace also has below 50% name recognition. House races tend to break very late because challengers only become better known in September. I do feel like the LV/RV reverse split compared to past elections is a bit wild and probably off.

[Gass3268]

PA-01 (Monmouth):

Fitzpatrick 49% - Wallace 42% (RV)
Fitzpatrick 48% - Wallace 47% (LV)
Wallace 48 - Fitzpatrick 47% (LV - Dem Surge)

Source

Usually the Pub does better rather than worse with LV's versus RV's.  That suggests a malaise problem for the Pubs, or maybe an indicator that the SES profile of Pub voters on average as fallen in the Trump era, or both. 

I'd go with both.

[KingSweden]

Decent numbers for Wallace there, indicates a Tossup/Tilt R race as we thought.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wallace's name rec is a lot lower than Fitz's, and the Dems are favored more. The fundamentals definitely favor Wallace at this point.

[IceSpear]

Really bad poll for the GOP. Fitzpatrick, who is reasonably popular, should be favored against a mediocre candidate like Wallace, especially this early when Wallace's name recognition isn't as high. Yet it's a toss up.

IMO districts 5, 6, 7, and 17 are already gone. 1 and 10 should be interesting.

[Young Conservative]

Decent numbers for Wallace there, indicates a Tossup/Tilt R race as we thought.

I concur. No shocks here. Slightly tilt R, but definitely mostly tossup.

[IceSpear]

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

[Gass3268]

Also, I know that MoCo only makes up 80,000 people of this district and the MoE is crazy with this sub-sample, but Wallace dominates there 52-31. Could make up the difference in the end.

Also look at the education differential:

Whites (no degree): Fitzgerald 59-33
Whites (with degree): Wallace 50-43
Non-whites: Wallace 51-32

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What makes Fitzpatrick so popular?

[Gass3268]

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

Those undecided have a 34% approval rating for Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

Those undecided have a 34% approval rating for Trump.

Wallace is going to win. That is, if this poll is accurate.

[IceSpear]

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Now imagine what races in swing districts where the Republican incumbent doesn't have a +30 favorability rating would be like.

Also, it shows that Trump is the one dragging down the Republicans. The economy is not going to save them.

Those undecided have a 34% approval rating for Trump.

It won't matter! They still love Republicans! The Dem wave is over!

Reminds me of the Dem hacks saying "DON'T WORRY ABOUT UNDECIDEDS IN PRYOR VS. COTTON ONLY GIVING OBAMA AN 8% APPROVAL RATING, NOTHING TO SEE HERE, THEY STILL LOVE DIXIECRATS AND THE PRYOR BRAND!!!"

[Hindsight was 2020]

I like that Monmouth is doing a RV/LV model split. This actually gives us good insight into districts and how races are going

[Brittain33]

What makes Fitzpatrick so popular?

People think he's his brother?