2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

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Hmm...

That is the usual definition of enthusiasm...

Would be interesting to see if the ‘definitely’ were significantly higher for Dems though

It's slightly higher.  Full results:

D:

Definitely 75
Probably 11
Maybe 9
Probably not 3
Definitely not 2

R:

Definitely 71
Probably 13
Maybe 8
Probably not 6
Definitely not 2

I:

Definitely 72
Probably 12
Maybe 10
Probably not 4
Definitely not 2

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

A wave in 2018 won't be about enthusiasm. While dems will turnout better than 2016 in 90%+ white places where the dem base skews older (midwest & Maine in particular), dems will turnout worse than 2016 in places where the dem base is more minority and young (OC Cali, Texas)

[Arkansas Yankee]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

[Hindsight was 2020]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Yeah I'm not going to factor in Limo's trolling into my predictions of how elections go

[Politician]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Arkansas Yankee in 2009: "But what if 1998 and 2002 were realigning years?"

All you ever say, you wit, is that Republicans will always win and Democrats are doomed to permanent failure. And you take habitual joy in this as well.

Also, YouGov is not a good poll at all.

[UncleSam]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Arkansas Yankee in 2009: "But what if 1998 and 2002 were realigning years?"

All you ever say, you wit, is that Republicans will always win and Democrats are doomed to permanent failure. And you take habitual joy in this as well.

Also, YouGov is not a good poll at all.

If you flip that you get like over half this forum though, including yourself. So not sure what you’re attacking him for.

[Politician]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Arkansas Yankee in 2009: "But what if 1998 and 2002 were realigning years?"

All you ever say, you wit, is that Republicans will always win and Democrats are doomed to permanent failure. And you take habitual joy in this as well.

Also, YouGov is not a good poll at all.

If you flip that you get like over half this forum though, including yourself. So not sure what you’re attacking him for.

Because that's what the facts are. It is not hackish to predict a wave. It is hackish to believe Republicans will win every election sesason.

[UncleSam]

No enthusiasm gap in CBS poll -->

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1003368303065223169

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm...

Republicans are starting to get really aggravated with the Mueller investigation. The economy is humming and Trump is getting the credit. Korea seems to be going well.

Some of you seem to over analyze the poll figures. You make voting into a mathmatical problem.

Some others of you totally ignore the feelings and opinions of those opposed to you.

You got a surprise in 2016.  You could be setting yourselves up for another one this year.  

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Arkansas Yankee in 2009: "But what if 1998 and 2002 were realigning years?"

All you ever say, you wit, is that Republicans will always win and Democrats are doomed to permanent failure. And you take habitual joy in this as well.

Also, YouGov is not a good poll at all.

If you flip that you get like over half this forum though, including yourself. So not sure what you’re attacking him for.

Because that's what the facts are. It is not hackish to predict a wave. It is hackish to believe Republicans will win every election sesason.

Maybe you should re-read my post because it’s pretty clear you misunderstood it.

Hint: flip the ‘Republican’ and ‘Democrat’ in your post. Then the meaning of my post will be illuminated.

[Virginiá]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.

In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

[Skill and Chance]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.

In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

This is underrated.  Based on the specials and polling, the areas most likely to "trend" Republican this year are majority-minority seats with rural or manufacturing influence.  That would substantially unpack the national Dem vote vs. the Obama-Clinton era. 

[UncleSam]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.

In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head here - the parties really haven’t shifted much at all in the last twenty or so years, and while the general political climate has shifted back and forth the individual districts have moved based on population dynamics, the simple fact is that the core constituencies have remained the same.

2010 was a massive wave year for the Republicans, but it’s not like they won in places they simply hadn’t even come close in previously. Just Rs dominated in places that they had either won in at the presidential level or had come close in 2004 or 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.

In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head here - the parties really haven’t shifted much at all in the last twenty or so years, and while the general political climate has shifted back and forth the individual districts have moved based on population dynamics, the simple fact is that the core constituencies have remained the same.

2010 was a massive wave year for the Republicans, but it’s not like they won in places they simply hadn’t even come close in previously. Just Rs dominated in places that they had either won in at the presidential level or had come close in 2004 or 2008.

Wouldn't that just mean Dems are out of luck in normal years until there is some major realignment?  I mean, other than maybe a 221 seat House majority, what is there for them in a narrow PV win right now?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can someone explain the freakout on twitter about the yougov poll? Noah Rothman and John Podhoretz are writing obituaries for the democratic party but a D+5 with them favored to win the house is were they have been most of year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone explain the freakout on twitter about the yougov poll? Noah Rothman and John Podhoretz are writing obituaries for the democratic party but a D+5 with them favored to win the house is were they have been most of year.

Is there any development that doesn't cause a freakout on Twitter?  I like Twitter as much as the next person, but it's not exactly a forum of reasonable discussion.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can someone explain the freakout on twitter about the yougov poll? Noah Rothman and John Podhoretz are writing obituaries for the democratic party but a D+5 with them favored to win the house is were they have been most of year.

Is there any development that doesn't cause a freakout on Twitter?  I like Twitter as much as the next person, but it's not exactly a forum of reasonable discussion.

IIRC the last YouGov poll was D+3, right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone explain the freakout on twitter about the yougov poll? Noah Rothman and John Podhoretz are writing obituaries for the democratic party but a D+5 with them favored to win the house is were they have been most of year.

Is there any development that doesn't cause a freakout on Twitter?  I like Twitter as much as the next person, but it's not exactly a forum of reasonable discussion.

IIRC the last YouGov poll was D+3, right?

Yes, but that was YouGov's regular weekly poll.  The current poll under discussion is the CBS Battleground poll conducted in conjunction with YouGov.  I don't think the two are directly comparable.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I mean I don't get the negative feedback on it. Are the dems suppose to be up by 12 and a guaranteed lock to win the house this early in the game? That's not how midterms go nor CGB polling   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can someone explain the freakout on twitter about the yougov poll? Noah Rothman and John Podhoretz are writing obituaries for the democratic party but a D+5 with them favored to win the house is were they have been most of year.

Is there any development that doesn't cause a freakout on Twitter?  I like Twitter as much as the next person, but it's not exactly a forum of reasonable discussion.

IIRC the last YouGov poll was D+3, right?

Yes, but that was YouGov's regular weekly poll.  The current poll under discussion is the CBS Battleground poll conducted in conjunction with YouGov.  I don't think the two are directly comparable.

Oh for some reason I thought you were talking about YouGov

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an  RCP article I read. I will try to find.   Clearly since 2010 Arkansas has experienced a total realignment.  So I feel it very acutely.  It is an awesome positive change in my opinion.

[Person Man]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an  RCP article I read. I will try to find.   Clearly since 2010 Arkansas has experienced a total realignment.  So I feel it very acutely.  It is an awesome positive change in my opinion.

The only sure sign of a realignment unless the dems blow it this year. Then it won't be a realignment based on charismatic leaders and new coalitions of voters but by the sheer failure of the opposition. 2010 was a wave, but it didn't even topple the Senate. 2012 was a D year and though 2014 was an R year, it was followed with an accidental Republican win that was the worst PV performance for a EV winner since 1888. Usually realignments happen when there is a landslide victory. Trump 16 is nothing like FDR 32, Reagan 80 or even McKinley 96.

[junior chįmp]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an  RCP article I read. I will try to find.   Clearly since 2010 Arkansas has experienced a total realignment.  So I feel it very acutely.  It is an awesome positive change in my opinion.

The only sure sign of a realignment unless the dems blow it this year. Then it won't be a realignment based on charismatic leaders and new coalitions of voters but by the sheer failure of the opposition. 2010 was a wave, but it didn't even topple the Senate. 2012 was a D year and though 2014 was an R year, it was followed with an accidental Republican win that was the worst PV performance for a EV winner since 1888. Usually realignments happen when there is a landslide victory. Trump 16 is nothing like FDR 32, Reagan 80 or even McKinley 96.

There is no certain way a realignment has to happen. GOP did poorly in the 1978 midterms but Reagan still won in 1980. Likewise before Lincoln's 1860 election, the democrats lost 35 house seats which would be the equivalents of losing around 70 today.

[Devout Centrist]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an RCP article I read.

RIP

[Person Man]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an RCP article I read.

RIP

[Doimper]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an RCP article I read.

RIP

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I know some of you dream of 2006. But what if 2010 was a realigning year with regard to how folks vote in Congressionial elections.  Have you  put that possibility into your analysis?

Republicans already had a realignment in the 1980s, which finally took effect downballot in 1994 and Congress has had a Republican lean to it ever since. 2006 and 2008 were exceptions to this - Dem waves, which toppled Republican majorities. 2010 was simply a backlash to Obama that returned Republicans to control that they were bound to get eventually anyway. If you look at the popular vote totals of elections since the 90s and the general state of the states right now, not a whole lot has changed at the macro level even if the electorate has been shifting underneath.
 
In fact, if anything, Democrats have actually made more progress in terms of expanding their "baseline" Congressional power. Clinton's 2% win won almost as many Congressional districts as Obama 2012, despite having almost half the PV margin. If she got Obama's 3.7%, she likely would have won at least a bare majority of districts.

My realignment is based on an RCP article I read.

RIP