2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Politician]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

Wait till Greedo sees this.

[KingSweden]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

That's only after people read positive & negative information about every candidate. Rossi is beating Ritt by 9 before that.

It’s an internal for a Nancy Pelosi pac, what do you expect

It’s a Lean R race until I see a non-push poll that shows any Dem within a few points of Rossi. Frankly this internal is so embarrassing I’m surprised they released it.

I could see Dems flipping the House even as Rossi wins, frankly

[YE]

No one knows who Jason Rittereiser is, correct?

[Gass3268]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

That's only after people read positive & negative information about every candidate. Rossi is beating Ritt by 9 before that.

This is why PPP's internals are better. They always have the horserace question first before going into the messaging territory.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Rossi is slightly favored. He's a strong candidate. I'd consider voting for him. WA-08 is more Republican downballot and Dave Reichert was very popular there too.

[Politician]

WA-08 is still Safe R because I'm Greedo Lean D for now.

[junior chįmp]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

 

Yeah, fortunately I don't think we will get shut out in 49.

[Bidenworth2020]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

 

survey monkey lmao, well jacobs would lose a ge handily so go applegate (preferably levin)

[Politician]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%
 

Rating per candidate:
Applegate: Safe D
Levin: Likely D
Kerr: Lean D
Jacobs: Tossup

[Politician]

WA-08 is still Safe R because I'm Greedo Lean D for now.

How do you take a poll done by a Democratic Super PAC showing the three main dem candidates losing by 6-9 points to a well funded republican challenger with name recognition and decide the race is Lean D? The level of delusion on Atlas is astounding.

Just wait a while. You'll be wrong yet again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

 

survey monkey lmao, well jacobs would lose a ge handily so go applegate (preferably levin)

It's not SurveyMonkey, it's SurveyUSA (rated A by 538).

[Doimper]

The level of delusion on Atlas is astounding.

This is the truest thing you've ever said

[LimoLiberal]

Absolutely ridiculous that my posts got deleted.

Two things happened:

• Dude claims that WA-08 is Lean D based on DEMOCRATIC INTERNAL showing democrats losing by 6-9 points
• Atlas tries to claim Survey USA is Republican biased despite it having an A rating on 538

Let's be very clear -
If a Monmouth poll (rated A+) came out showing Heitkamp leading by 10 points and I decried it as "wonky" and biased I would be rightly pilloried by Atlas for making up reasons to justify my dislike of the poll.
If a NRCC internal was released showing potential Democrats leading by 6-9 points in, say, CA-39 and I declared it "great news for Republicans" and shifted the race to Lean R, I would be correctly criticized again.

[Bidenworth2020]

Absolutely ridiculous that my posts got deleted.

Two things happened:

• Dude claims that WA-08 is Lean D based on DEMOCRATIC INTERNAL showing democrats losing by 6-9 points
• Atlas tries to claim Survey USA is Republican biased despite it having an A rating on 538

Let's be very clear -
If a Monmouth poll (rated A+) came out showing Heitkamp leading by 10 points and I decried it as "wonky" and biased I would be rightly pilloried by Atlas for making up reasons to justify my dislike of the poll.
If a NRCC internal was released showing potential Democrats leading by 6-9 points in, say, CA-39 and I declared it "great news for Republicans" and shifted the race to Lean R, I would be correctly criticized again.

to be clear, i thought it was survey monkey first, which has a d- rating on 538

[KingSweden]

Absolutely ridiculous that my posts got deleted.

Two things happened:

• Dude claims that WA-08 is Lean D based on DEMOCRATIC INTERNAL showing democrats losing by 6-9 points
• Atlas tries to claim Survey USA is Republican biased despite it having an A rating on 538

Let's be very clear -
If a Monmouth poll (rated A+) came out showing Heitkamp leading by 10 points and I decried it as "wonky" and biased I would be rightly pilloried by Atlas for making up reasons to justify my dislike of the poll.
If a NRCC internal was released showing potential Democrats leading by 6-9 points in, say, CA-39 and I declared it "great news for Republicans" and shifted the race to Lean R, I would be correctly criticized again.

As ridiculous as those posts are, two things:

1. This is Atlas, ridiculous takes are par for the course
2. Building off the first point, reflect on how ridiculous your own posting must have been for you to have utterly erased any and all benefit of the doubt on a forum with the worst political hot-takers on the Internet

[Virginiá]

Outrageous, LL. I stand with you. It's so outrageous that, as much as it pains me, I'd even go so far as to recommend you flee this dump and take to the information superhighway to spread your knowledge and stellar prognostications to other less fortunate forums.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-07 DCCC

Culberson (R): 47%
Fletcher (D): 45%

R+7 district won by Clinton


What's funny is the guy who posted it is trying to spin it as if it isn't great news for the Dems. GEM set him straight:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1002635537612791808

[Gass3268]

TX-07 DCCC

Culberson (R): 47%
Fletcher (D): 45%

R+7 district won by Clinton


What's funny is the guy who posted it is trying to spin it as if it isn't great news for the Dems. GEM set him straight:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1002635537612791808

What we've seen in a lot of the special elections is 2012 margins in Obama->Trump districts and 2016 margins in Romney->Clinton districts. This fits that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-07 DCCC

Culberson (R): 47%
Fletcher (D): 45%

R+7 district won by Clinton


What's funny is the guy who posted it is trying to spin it as if it isn't great news for the Dems. GEM set him straight:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1002635537612791808

What we've seen in a lot of the special elections is 2012 margins in Obama->Trump districts and 2016 margins in Romney->Clinton districts. This fits that.

It also shows that the Democrats are still on track for a blue wave election, even if they don't win this district. They continue to do well in the individual race polls.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Fletcher doesn't impress me. I don't think she will win. Hillary only won the district by 1.5, whereas Romney won it by 21. It still has some GOP DNA, even if it is shifting super fast. Dems depend on young voters to win districts like this, and young people will be turning out poorly in this midterm, just as they always do in this midterm.

Thankfully for democrats, there are plenty of other districts that are easier to win IMO. There's plenty of ripe targets in NJ/NY/PA, the midwest, and the west coast (although I am skeptical about dems making many gains in Orange County).

As for whether this poll is a good or bad result for dems... it's just a neutral result. About what I expect the final margin to be. I was actually thinking Fletcher would lose by 4 in November. I think Sessions loses by 2 and Hurd vs Jones is a big tossup (Hurd is a very strong incumbent - Sessions/Culberson would lose this matchup).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Election Insights poll (D+7) is correct, then Fletcher will win.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If the Election Insights poll (D+7) is correct, then Fletcher will win.

D+7 doesn't mean dems get 5 points in every district, if you use common sense. In some districts, dems will do more than 5 points better (e.g Rod Blum & Tenney's district); in others, they will do worse (e.g Carlos Curbelo and Valadao's district)

Dems underperformed in GA-06 because it was a rich suburban district where dems relied on young people. Meanwhile, they won in PA-18 because Conor Lamb was a great fit for the district and it had more dem roots & old people in PA-18 voted for dems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Outrageous, LL. I stand with you. It's so outrageous that, as much as it pains me, I'd even go so far as to recommend you flee this dump and take to the information superhighway to spread your knowledge and stellar prognostications to other less fortunate forums.

Endorsed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Election Insights poll (D+7) is correct, then Fletcher will win.

D+7 doesn't mean dems get 5 points in every district, if you use common sense. In some districts, dems will do more than 5 points better (e.g Rod Blum & Tenney's district); in others, they will do worse (e.g Carlos Curbelo and Valadao's district)

Dems underperformed in GA-06 because it was a rich suburban district where dems relied on young people. Meanwhile, they won in PA-18 because Conor Lamb was a great fit for the district and it had more dem roots & old people in PA-18 voted for dems.

You really need to use more critical thinking in your posts.

Oh buddy. It's called a prediction. Of course I know that not every race will swing that way. I don't appreciate it when you insult my intelligence.

There is nothing to suggest Fletcher is a weak candidate that will underperform the national swing.

You really need to use your manners when talking to people.