Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[lfromnj]

According to TX Tribune estimates/projections, Dems have gained at least 10 State House Seats

Balance coming in: 95-55 GOP
New Balance: 85-65 GOP

State Senate had a D gain of 2
Previous Balance: 21-10 GOP
New Balance: 19-12 GOP

Were the Huffman seat and the old Wendy Davis seat the Senate gains?

The wendy davis was one of them afaik.
Anyway 2020 state house looks like a very good gain as its actually 83-67 with probably atleastt 8-10 more seats Beto won in. I think there may be a legilsative backlash to the Texas GOP now that Joe Straus has left.

[CatoMinor]

If the GOP legislature screws the pooch this session there is a very real possibility that next time the house is at risk and the Senate's procedural majority.

 

[lfromnj]

If the GOP legislature screws the pooch this session there is a very real possibility that next time the house is at risk and the Senate's procedural majority.

 

its just takes one more senate seat as Pete flores will probably lose with presidential turnout

Yeah the GOP legislature will definitely screw the pooch with the tea party screaming for bathroom bills here and there and completely turning off suburban voters to satisfy the rural hicks. The only reason it didn't happen yet is because Joe Straus was pretty much the only person holding Dan Patricks wet dream in check. Considering how badly the Rs are self packed in around 20-30 rural districts and how so many of the urban districts are gerrymanders waiting to be rekt like Dallas in 2018 Texas state house will probably be the most likely state legislature flip besides MN senate, AZ houses(if those are up) in 2020 as the majority is incredibily narrow. Texas GOP really needs to redistrict the maps between now and then and Delay it out so they can have atleast 80 Safe Seats.

[CatoMinor]

In case anyone missed last week's big news, it seems that Bonnen will be the next Speaker. This is a huge victory for the moderates who support bipartisan committee chairmanships.

Looks like another round of Senate vs House instead of R vs D.

[Virginiá]

How big of a redraw would they need to do to protect the majority?

Though I have to say, this is pretty pathetic that this is even an option. Disgraceful.

[Beet]

In case anyone missed last week's big news, it seems that Bonnen will be the next Speaker. This is a huge victory for the moderates who support bipartisan committee chairmanships.

Looks like another round of Senate vs House instead of R vs D.

Bonnen is pretty conservative, isn't he? And he apparently won without needing any support from Democrats.

[lfromnj]

In case anyone missed last week's big news, it seems that Bonnen will be the next Speaker. This is a huge victory for the moderates who support bipartisan committee chairmanships.

Looks like another round of Senate vs House instead of R vs D.

Bonnen is pretty conservative, isn't he? And he apparently won without needing any support from Democrats.

yeah from what I read he sounds like a conservative. Probably closer to abbot than patrick but is no RINO like Joe Straus.

[CatoMinor]

In case anyone missed last week's big news, it seems that Bonnen will be the next Speaker. This is a huge victory for the moderates who support bipartisan committee chairmanships.

Looks like another round of Senate vs House instead of R vs D.

Bonnen is pretty conservative, isn't he? And he apparently won without needing any support from Democrats.

Conservative is a relative term, on the scale from Straus to Patrick, he is closer to Straus.

[lfromnj]

Anyway Bonnen  can cost the texas gop their house majority in 2020 due to the selfpacking in the rurals and the cracked gerrymanders that are falling eg Dallas. If he does a bathroom bill and 2020 is a light democrat year I think texas house is Lean R.

[RogueBeaver]

Beto won't challenge Cornyn.

[lfromnj]

I think Hegar should try again for the 31st. I think carter at this point is too old to run again for a tough race.

[CatoMinor]

Dwayne Stovall, a states-rights conservative who won 11% in the primary against Cornyn in 2014 announced he will run as an Independent in 2020 against him.

[politicallefty]

I seriously have to wonder what will happen in Texas if Beto is on the ticket in 2020. If Republicans were to actually lose the Texas House in 2020, the impact on the future Congressional map can’t be understated. Democrats are well within striking distance now.

[Mr. Smith]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

[lfromnj]

I seriously have to wonder what will happen in Texas if Beto is on the ticket in 2020. If Republicans were to actually lose the Texas House in 2020, the impact on the future Congressional map can’t be understated. Democrats are well within striking distance now.

If dems do take back the state house it would be something like 76 or 77 so I wouldn't be shocked to see 3-4 hispanics ditching their democrats to gerrymander Austin again to screw those white liberals. Cuellar would order it for certain.

[Virginiá]

Now regretting people filed a racial gerrymandering lawsuit prior to 2018:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1065303185399664641


Redraw of one district now gives Republicans a modicum of cover to shore up a variety of districts. Obviously there is no guarantee they will do that, but knowing Republicans, it seems likely. North Carolina Republicans did the same thing with a court-mandated redraw and other state parties have done redraws all on their own.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I seriously have to wonder what will happen in Texas if Beto is on the ticket in 2020. If Republicans were to actually lose the Texas House in 2020, the impact on the future Congressional map can’t be understated. Democrats are well within striking distance now.

The advantage to nominating Beto O'Rourke for President isn't that he'd flip Texas (he wouldn't), it's that 1) he's someone most factions and groups within the 2018 Democratic coalition would probably be able to get behind pretty enthusiastically, 2) he's proven he's a great candidate and excellent fundraiser, 3) most importantly, he has a real Obama circa '08/Bobby Kennedy circa '68 vibe to him (O'Rourke is someone I could see folks actually being excited to vote for even if he weren't running against Trump).  I think O'Rourke might be our best bet against Trump, but we'd need a real attack dog as the VP nominee (Adam Schiff could be great, especially since he's great at coming off as calm, friendly, and agreeable even as he's verbally ripping someone's throat out).  Actually, the more I think about it, I could definitely see an O'Rourke/Schiff ticket winning against Trump in 2020. 

[lfromnj]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Ted-Cruz-was-right-about-Beto-Opinion-13410580.php

LOL ANDREW WHITE(the other texas gubernatorial candidate)
he sees the entire results which are the best results in 3 decades and an utter burb stomping of the GOP in texas and he starts thinking they have to appeal to rural hicks
He probably would have done better than Lupe Valdez but lets be serious both candidates were pretty bad.

[Virginiá]

@jdb Agree on all points (although I do wonder if TX might be seriously in play in 2020 now), but I'd also like to add that his resistance to PACs and what they represent is a good thing to inject into the 2020 primary. It also might give him an advantage over most of the others, who would have to choose to stick to that unlimited money (which might be all they can get after a point) and take criticism for it, or ditch them. Either one is beneficial for us / America.

Can't say I'm really worried about what a lack of PAC money would represent. It didn't help Clinton all that much, nor did Beto need it in Texas. Small donors will be even more formidable in 2020.

[politicallefty]

I seriously have to wonder what will happen in Texas if Beto is on the ticket in 2020. If Republicans were to actually lose the Texas House in 2020, the impact on the future Congressional map can’t be understated. Democrats are well within striking distance now.

The advantage to nominating Beto O'Rourke for President isn't that he'd flip Texas (he wouldn't), it's that 1) he's someone most factions and groups within the 2018 Democratic coalition would probably be able to get behind pretty enthusiastically, 2) he's proven he's a great candidate and excellent fundraiser, 3) most importantly, he has a real Obama circa '08/Bobby Kennedy circa '68 vibe to him (O'Rourke is someone I could see folks actually being excited to vote for even if he weren't running against Trump).  I think O'Rourke might be our best bet against Trump, but we'd need a real attack dog as the VP nominee (Adam Schiff could be great, especially since he's great at coming off as calm, friendly, and agreeable even as he's verbally ripping someone's throat out).  Actually, the more I think about it, I could definitely see an O'Rourke/Schiff ticket winning against Trump in 2020. 

I agree with mostly everything you said, except I think he could at least keep Texas competitive (not necessarily saying it would fall). I get the same vibe about him though. He kind of looks like Obama in a way, maybe mostly his body frame. If he were the nominee, I really don’t think we could run an all-white male ticket. Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar would probably be better.

But I’m not just looking the presidential race. I think we have a chance to build upon what we’ve done in Texas. A lot of House races were very close and Democrats are in range of taking the Texas House. Taking the TX House would be the single most consequential shift in any state compared with post-2010. It’s possible we could secure the House for the next decade.

[bagelman]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

[Snipee356]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

Castro would do much worse than Beto or Hegar.

[Storr]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

Castro would do much worse than Beto or Hegar.

I agree. Much of Beto's appeal is due to his authenticity. The Castro brothers don't strike me as nearly as authentic as Beto.

[Badger]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

Castro would do much worse than Beto or Hegar.

I agree. Much of Beto's appeal is due to his authenticity. The Castro brothers don't strike me as nearly as authentic as Beto.

This times 10. Not to mention, doesn't Castro not speak Spanish? Hell, even most Anglo Texan politicians do that.

[lfromnj]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

Castro would do much worse than Beto or Hegar.

I agree. Much of Beto's appeal is due to his authenticity. The Castro brothers don't strike me as nearly as authentic as Beto.

This times 10. Not to mention, doesn't Castro not speak Spanish? Hell, even most Anglo Texan politicians do that.

Inb4 IceSpear muh shalala.you need a top tier candidate in texas who can unite the African Americans, suburbs, Rio grande illegals and Austin liberals. Beto did good with urban Mexicans but not those near the border.