The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

1) I suspect Holcomb might be weaker than expected considering that his reputation and approvals are built off of... what? The gas tax? Mostly just not being controversial and keeping IN out of the headlines. But then again that might just make him stronger and harder to run against.

This matches my assessment. Call it a hunch (because I certainly don't have any evidence or data to back this view) but I suspect that a lot of Holcolmb's approval rating is built on a marked break from his predecessor on time spent in the headlines for the wrong reason.

What is with people afraid losing will take their record same with Castro? Obama, Bush,Clinton, Reagan all lost before eventually winning.

For me, it's my perception of Holcolmb's strength. I fundamentally do not think he'll be in any electoral danger. So rather than take on what I consider a suicide mission against Holcolmb, I think it makes more sense to challenge a more winnable race.

[Mr. Morden]

Kander will be headlining the New Hampshire Dem. Party's annual McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club dinner on April 14:

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-jason-kander-tapped-as-featured-speaker-at-major-nh-democratic-party-fundraiser/19602095

Maybe Buttigieg, Kander, Gabbard, and Swalwell will all run.  Then we'd have four candidates under age 40 on Election Day, which has got to shatter any previous such record.  

EDIT: I guess Joe Kennedy could run too, but he turns 40 in October 2020, so he wouldn't quite qualify, if we're talking about being 40 on the day of the general election.  He'd still be in his 30s during the primaries though, which I guess might be the more relevant benchmark.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Per his Facebook, Jason Kander is going to be participating in the March for Our Lives...in Des Moines.

Yes, Let America Vote has its biggest field office in Des Moines so a lot of his friends live there.

[MechaBambi]

Maybe Buttigieg, Kander, Gabbard, and Swalwell will all run.  Then we'd have four candidates under age 40 on Election Day, which has got to shatter any previous such record.  

EDIT: I guess Joe Kennedy could run too, but he turns 40 in October 2020, so he wouldn't quite qualify, if we're talking about being 40 on the day of the general election.  He'd still be in his 30s during the primaries though, which I guess might be the more relevant benchmark.

Gonna be fun watching four interchangeable white guys each argue that they're the one best positioned to capitalize on the upswell of youth activism, meanwhile 79-year-old Bernie is still out there scooping up a supermajority of the millennial vote.

I only see Gabbard running if Sanders doesn't; if she tries running against Sanders by arguing that her foreign policy is more anti-interventionist than his, she's even wackier than I thought.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Kristol responds to 2020 questions that have arisen from his early primary state visits:

http://www.insidesources.com/kristol-iowa-2020/

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Bill Kristol... running for President... what?

[Mr. Morden]

Kristol responds to 2020 questions that have arisen from his early primary state visits:

http://www.insidesources.com/kristol-iowa-2020/

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Bill Kristol... running for President... what?

Well, as explained in this thread, he's in Iowa today, and was supposed to be in New Hampshire a couple of weeks ago (but I guess that was postponed due to weather), so people are speculating.  He's apparently been trying to find someone to run against Trump in the 2020 GOP primaries:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273224.msg6109694#msg6109694

But if no one else is willing to do it, then I guess I wouldn't rule out him doing it himself.

[Mr. Morden]

Bullock is asked whether his upcoming trip to Iowa means that he's running for prez:

http://www.ktvq.com/story/37823108/will-montana-gov-steve-bullock-run-for-president-in-2020

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[Mr. Morden]

More Buttigieg:

http://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/buttigieg-2020-don’t-rule-it-out

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[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a dispatch from one of Steyer’s impeachment town halls:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/want-to-impeach-the-president-this-billionaire-is-on-the-case/2018/03/26/da7d0fdc-2d13-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.d76417681f7a

Also in Steyer news, he’s going to hold some House Democratic primary debates:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexislevinson/tom-steyer-is-going-to-hold-debates-in-democratic-primaries

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[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe has been named a visiting professor at George Mason University:

http://www.martinsvillebulletin.com/news/professor-mcauliffe-former-governor-appointed-as-guest-lecturer-at-george/article_2ef750a4-a4f2-527d-8673-1356bf06d915.html

[MechaBambi]

Bernie visiting Jackson, Mississippi on April 4 to hold a town hall with Mayor Chokwe Lumumba:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/mar/28/mayor-lumumba-planning-town-hall-event-jackson-ber/

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Also co-hosting a discussion with Rev. Barber at Duke University on April 19:

https://divinity.duke.edu/events/bernie-sanders-william-barber-conversation-rescheduled-april-19

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[Mr. Morden]

Eric Holder talks about why he might run for prez:

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Meanwhile, Jason Kander’s in New Hampshire yet again, and being asked about 2020:

http://www.wmur.com/article/man-frustrated-with-stubborn-belly-fat-learns-it-s-actually-a-30-pound-tumor/19628615

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden suggests that grieving over Beau’s death might still be holding him back from a presidential run:

https://morristowngreen.com/2018/03/29/video-former-v-p-joe-biden-raps-phony-populism-hedges-on-2020-run-at-drew-forum/

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I still think the punditocracy at large is overestimating the chances that Biden will run.  He’s come down a little on PredictIt in recent day to 58% chance of running, but that still seems way too high to me.  I wouldn’t put it higher than a 1 in 3 chance (and that hasn’t really budged for me for a long time now).

People hear him attacking Trump, and assume that that means he’s ready to run for president, but I don’t see it that way.  It’s clear that he wants to be “in the national conversation”, and is happy to go on the campaign trail for fellow Dems, but does he actually want to spend his twilight years in one of the most stressful jobs in the world?  I don’t know.  I have my doubts.

[MechaBambi]

I still think the punditocracy at large is overestimating the chances that Biden will run.  He’s come down a little on PredictIt in recent day to 58% chance of running, but that still seems way too high to me.  I wouldn’t put it higher than a 1 in 3 chance (and that hasn’t really budged for me for a long time now).

People hear him attacking Trump, and assume that that means he’s ready to run for president, but I don’t see it that way.  It’s clear that he wants to be “in the national conversation”, and is happy to go on the campaign trail for fellow Dems, but does he actually want to spend his twilight years in one of the most stressful jobs in the world?  I don’t know.  I have my doubts.

He said in December that he would only run if "nobody has moved in that I think can do it," and in another interview he praised Booker and Harris as examples of the next generation of Democratic leadership. Does this mean that if either Booker or Harris run (which is close to 100%), Biden will stay out? Or is he truly arrogant enough to believe he's the only one in the country who can stop Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

Roy Cooper says he expects to “get some calls” from people urging him to run for prez, simply because he’s a swing state governor.  However, it doesn’t sound like he’s up for answering those calls:

http://www.wxii12.com/article/will-gov-cooper-run-for-president/19634395

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[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Roy Cooper says he expects to “get some calls” from people urging him to run for prez, simply because he’s a swing state governor.  However, it doesn’t sound like he’s up for answering those calls:

http://www.wxii12.com/article/will-gov-cooper-run-for-president/19634395

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Cooper won't run, and he shouldn't either. nothing stands out about him other than him being from a swing state that Democrats want to target.

[Mr. Morden]

Holder says he'll decide by "the beginning of next year":

http://www.wthitv.com/content/national/478426683.html?ref=683

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[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

Sanders is/was on both Face the Nation and State of the Union today.

[Mr. Morden]

This week’s #2020Vision column:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/01/politics/2020-vision-biden-popularity-eric-holder-decision/index.html

Some highlights….

Harris (and Kander) will speak at the DNC Women’s Leadership Forum on May 17-18.  Harris will keynote the dinner on the second night.  And Harris will be on Ellen DeGeneres’s show on Thursday of this week:

https://www.moviefone.com/tv/the-ellen-degeneres-show/114811/season-15/

Mark Cuban and John Kasich both appeared at an event at Ohio State University today:

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180327/john-kasich-mark-cuban-to-discuss-workplace-change-at-ohio-state

Landrieu has more non-denials:

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[Mr. Morden]

Steyer is asked if he’s going to run for president at about the 4:30 mark in this interview:

https://www.msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhle/watch/steyer-we-re-committed-to-getting-rid-of-trump-standing-up-for-american-values-1200328259890

and he ignores the question:

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Malley’s in New Hampshire again:

http://nh1.com/politics/national-us-world-politics/is-it-2020-already-presidential-hopefuls-are-starting-to-show-up-in-nh

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Meanwhile, here’s Cuban on 2020:

http://nbc4i.com/2018/04/02/kasich-cuban-talk-potus-2-party-system-and-artificial-intelligence-at-axios-osu-event/

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[Harlow]

Kasich with a cheeky tweet about Hickenlooper going to Iowa.

https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/980905255570419714

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[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper's in Iowa today, while Kasich and O'Malley are both in New Hampshire.

And it's April 2018...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

To quote Peebs,

Which is the cuter couple? John McCain and Lindsey Graham or John Kasich and John Hickenlooper?

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/martin-omalley-keeping-an-open-heart-and-open-mind-about-running-for-president-in-2020

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