The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Kander is going to throw away his political future (if he hasn't already) if he runs for President in 2020. Run against Greitens, dude, that fruit is hanging low.

What's the probability that Greitens is actually going to be the GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2020 though?  Is he even going to run again at this point?

[History505]

Kander is going to throw away his political future (if he hasn't already) if he runs for President in 2020. Run against Greitens, dude, that fruit is hanging low.

What's the probability that Greitens is actually going to be the GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2020 though?  Is he even going to run again at this point?

He might be out of office by that point anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

Joe Kennedy and Jason Kander headed to New Hampshire in October:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/04/12/joe-kennedy-headline-event-favored-potential-presidents/661I18vDXkuvrZNWjuh7gO/story.html

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Meanwhile, on the eve of his trip to Iowa, Garcetti says Iowa is just like California:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-garcetti-we-re-the-same-as-iowa-1523471040-htmlstory.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Al Sharpton interviewed Biden on MSNBC and asked him about 2020.  Here’s his response:

https://www.msnbc.com/politicsnation/watch/will-joe-biden-run-in-2020-1209266755806

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[NevadanAtHeart]

Al Sharpton interviewed Biden on MSNBC and asked him about 2020.  Here’s his response:

https://www.msnbc.com/politicsnation/watch/will-joe-biden-run-in-2020-1209266755806

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Wasn't this from a few weeks ago or am I having deja vu?

[Mr. Morden]

Al Sharpton interviewed Biden on MSNBC and asked him about 2020.  Here’s his response:

https://www.msnbc.com/politicsnation/watch/will-joe-biden-run-in-2020-1209266755806

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Wasn't this from a few weeks ago or am I having deja vu?

I don't know.  It says "April 12, 2018" in the lower right hand corner of the screen, so it looks like the video was posted yesterday, but it may have originally aired some time ago.  I'm not sure.

[henster]

Looks like Biden really wants to pass the baton to a younger Dem, can't see him running at all if Kamala or Booker does.

[Mr. Morden]

Garcetti will make yet another early primary state visit next month when he gives the commencement speech at a university in New Hampshire….just one day after Julian Castro does the same at another university in New Hampshrie:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/984837016830570496

Meanwhile, here’s a story on how Kamala Harris is doing a bunch of fundraising for fellow Dem. senators and candidates across the country:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article208763234.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden said earlier this week that he’ll have to decide on a presidential run “by January”:

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2018/04/10/bidens-conversation-with-chancellor-calls-for-bipartisanship-optimism/

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In related news, here’s the latest on Biden’s Policy Advisory Board:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mollyhensleyclancy/joe-biden-advisory-board

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[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick says he’s going to “focus” on his job at Bain this summer, but then will be involved in the midterms in the fall, with some decision on 2020 to follow:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/04/13/deval-patrick-contemplating-white-house-run-says-plans-ramp-his-political-activity-this-year/6QGDvtMznB2bmBplIgg1PM/story.html

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In other news, Terry McAuliffe says he’s not sure if he’d be able to win the nomination, but says he will beat Trump in the general election if he’s the nominee:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/terry-mcauliffe-if-i-ran-against-trump-id-beat-him/

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[Mr. Morden]

Kander will be on Real Time with Bill Maher tonight:

https://twitter.com/RealTimers/status/984826564691947520/photo/1

[Mr. Morden]

Kander has a new book coming out on August 7th:

http://jasonkanderbook.com/

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[Mr. Morden]

Garcetti’s in Des Moines right now, where he did an interview with the LA Times about his prospective run for president:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-eric-garcetti-president-interview-20180414-story.html

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In other news, Tom Steyer’s NextGen America PAC is going to spend $30 million to get young people to turn out to vote in 11 states for the midterms, and those 11 states happen to include early primary states Iowa, NH, and Nevada.  The other 8 are FL, VA, PA, MI, WI, AZ, CA, and WI:

http://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-nh-included-in-steyer-funded-pacs-dollar30-million-nationwide-youth-voting-campaign/19750073

Steyer did an interview about it with New Hampshire’s WMUR:

http://www.wmur.com/article/billionaire-tom-steyer-spending-big-to-build-broadest-possible-democracy/19761347

[The Mikado]

It seems too early for Garcetti, IMO. I really think he should've run for governor of CA. That'd be a spot that'd really set himself up for a future Presidential bid.

[MechaBambi]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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[NewYorkExpress]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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Hmm...Maybe Hillary's going to run after all... I doubt she would be doing this if the thought hadn't at least crossed her mind.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s more Biden talking to Al Sharpton about 2020:

https://www.facebook.com/PoliticsNation/videos/vb.280920811923248/2156144961067481/?type=3&theater

Biden still sounds shaken by his son’s death, and seems to suggest that that’s what’s still holding him back emotionally from being able to commit to a presidential run.  On a 2020 decision timeline, he says:

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's this week's #2020Vision column:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/15/politics/2020-vision-biden-kamala-harris-julian-castro/

Most of it stuff already covered in this thread, though they do mention that Tim Ryan is headed to South Carolina again later this month:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/ohio-congressman-who-once-challenged-nancy-pelosi-to-speak-at/article_d441646a-3bff-11e8-a911-a3b446de07d2.html

[gerritcole]

Here’s more Biden talking to Al Sharpton about 2020:

https://www.facebook.com/PoliticsNation/videos/vb.280920811923248/2156144961067481/?type=3&theater

Biden still sounds shaken by his son’s death, and seems to suggest that that’s what’s still holding him back emotionally from being able to commit to a presidential run.  On a 2020 decision timeline, he says:

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Does anyone else feel Biden is looking for reasons not to run rather than to run? i think he's gonna pass and assume the elderly statesman role

[MAINEiac4434]

Here’s more Biden talking to Al Sharpton about 2020:

https://www.facebook.com/PoliticsNation/videos/vb.280920811923248/2156144961067481/?type=3&theater

Biden still sounds shaken by his son’s death, and seems to suggest that that’s what’s still holding him back emotionally from being able to commit to a presidential run.  On a 2020 decision timeline, he says:

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Does anyone else feel Biden is looking for reasons not to run rather than to run? i think he's gonna pass and assume the elderly statesman role

Absolutely. I think he thinks highly of Harris, however, so maybe if she's in he won't be.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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Hmm...Maybe Hillary's going to run after all... I doubt she would be doing this if the thought hadn't at least crossed her mind.

If she did run, she would have zero chance of winning the primary. almost nobody is going to vote for the candidate who's already a proven loser when so much is on the line.

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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Hmm...Maybe Hillary's going to run after all... I doubt she would be doing this if the thought hadn't at least crossed her mind.

If she did run, she would have zero chance of winning the primary. almost nobody is going to vote for the candidate who's already a proven loser when so much is on the line.

Tell that to Richard Nixon.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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Hmm...Maybe Hillary's going to run after all... I doubt she would be doing this if the thought hadn't at least crossed her mind.

If she did run, she would have zero chance of winning the primary. almost nobody is going to vote for the candidate who's already a proven loser when so much is on the line.

Tell that to Richard Nixon.

That was before the modern primary system, back when primary votes weren't that important.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s more Biden talking to Al Sharpton about 2020:

https://www.facebook.com/PoliticsNation/videos/vb.280920811923248/2156144961067481/?type=3&theater

Biden still sounds shaken by his son’s death, and seems to suggest that that’s what’s still holding him back emotionally from being able to commit to a presidential run.  On a 2020 decision timeline, he says:

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Does anyone else feel Biden is looking for reasons not to run rather than to run? i think he's gonna pass and assume the elderly statesman role

Absolutely. I think he thinks highly of Harris, however, so maybe if she's in he won't be.

My instinct is that Biden's decision won't actually be influenced much by who else is running.  His "I won't run if I see others in the field who are electable" (paraphrase) is, IMHO, just a cover for "I don't know if I really have it in me to do another presidential run, but if I don't, then I'll explain my decision by saying that I see one or more other candidates in the field who are capable of beating Trump and serving well as president, so my candidacy isn't needed."

But he can make that excuse regardless of whether Harris or any individual person runs.

[Mr. Morden]

This news is more than a week old now, but I guess since John Kerry seemed to suggest a 2020 presidential run wasn't off the table, and given that he visited Iowa in December, I'll mention that he was in the early caucus state of Nevada almost two weeks ago "as part of the inaugural Harry Reid Public Engagement Lecture Series" at the University of Nevada, Reno:

https://www.unr.edu/nevada-today/news/2018/harry-reid-lecture-series-x88168